Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

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broken harbour
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Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by broken harbour »

Now that the Wii U and PS4 are released, and the Xbone get's released this week, let's all make our end of generation predictions! Let's revisit our posts in 8 years and see who was right.


I think the Xbone will outsell the PS4 in North America, at least initially. Everywhere else in the world I think it’ll be DOA. MS can’t market their way out of a paper bag it seems. Xbox is already a money losing thing for MS, Xbone will be a financial black hole, forcing them to sell the division off to Sega, who will redesign the system, call it the “Dreamcast 2” and go on to dominate this generation, forcing Nintendo into receivership. Ok, maybe my predictions are more fantasy than anything else… :mrgreen:
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Pretas »

Should be moved to Off Topic.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Bananamatic »

no shmups lol
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by broken harbour »

Pretas wrote:Should be moved to Off Topic.
Oops, sorry.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Cagar »

I think that this can stay in shmups chat if we talk about shmup-predictions
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Teufel_in_Blau »

Here is mine (shmups releated):

We will get shit like this Resogun or another arena shmup with randomized bullet patterns. A few ugly ass shmups will get a release or a re-re-release like Ikaruga on some download only plattform. Fucking phones will get the most shooters and 90% of this forum will be about what else IseeThings has emulated yet and some japanese NEET managed to get going on his mid-90s PC so that you need to make sure your 'future' OS can even run his doushit.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by BulletMagnet »

Cagar wrote:I think that this can stay in shmups chat if we talk about shmup-predictions
Anything other than "the genre continues to die" would be redundant. :P
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by BryanM »

PSX4 had more USA preorders than the bone. Sony's success is probably coming off the skin of Microsoft - they're targeting the same market after all.

Well anyway. More curious what those NEETs have up their sleeves. Probably not blue and orange, guns, ropes, sports, or TV...
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Ed Oscuro »

Blue and orange, ropes?
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by BryanM »

Ed Oscuro wrote:Blue and orange
Blue and orange are at opposite sides of the color wheel. This maximizes contrast. Orange is kind of flesh colored, and blue is a plausible sky or ocean... So literally everything in blockbuster advertising uses it always. A google image search demonstrates.

Also they're quotes from the famous PSX4 announcement vid.

(And that's also another metric: Even when it comes to gag vids, PSX4 still gets many, many more views.)

"And obviously Sonic the Hedgehog is back because.. he doesn't have anywhere else to live."
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by replayme »

Wii U receives support from Nintendo for another year, before they smell the PS4/XBone bacon and realise it's Game Over. They then drop out of the console hardware race and port all their existing Wii U games to current/next gen consoles.

Nintendo fanbots feel as if they've betrayed. Start committing suicide en masse. And the world is a better place for it.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Obiwanshinobi »

Next OutRun will be free-to-play on Xbox One, with new sights and sounds streaming as you pay for them.
PS4 wil be another PSX/PS2/360, i.e. the safest buy around.
Wii U will be the Dreamcast 2 (something Wii had ALMOST become, but too many of its games looked plain for all the wrong reasons, and I DON'T mean the resolution).
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by replayme »

Fcuk that. There's no way you can associate the shittiness of the Wii U against the greatness of the DC. It's a Jaguar at best.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Skykid »

replayme wrote:Wii U receives support from Nintendo for another year, before they smell the PS4/XBone bacon and realise it's Game Over. They then drop out of the console hardware race and port all their existing Wii U games to current/next gen consoles.

Nintendo fanbots feel as if they've betrayed. Start committing suicide en masse. And the world is a better place for it.
Az, you've either lost your marbles or your perspective. You're talking about a company that a few years ago was the most profitable in Japan year on year, has more A-grade first party IP's than any competitor, stimulating the bottom line to the point when even if it's bad, it's good, and a nation of Japanese people who don't believe games need to be 'adult' in theme to have value (the correct and educated opinion.)

They also still manage to make gold when the time is right, and have the leading handheld on the market.

Short story, Nintendo could have ten Wii U failures in a row, and still be in the green. Have you seen Sony's annual profit for the last decade?

There isn't any.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by replayme »

A drug dealer could be in the green. Doesn't make them great though.

I think your love for your 3DS is clouding your judgement. As a console hardware manufacturer, Nintendo haven't been relevant for about 10 years. The Wii paid off, yes, but that still doesn't change the fact that it was a fluke. The Wii U is making people realise that.

This coming generation is finally making people realise, and sales testify to this, that Nintendo are outclassed and outmatched when it comes to hardware.

The only thing that's repeatedly saved them is their handheld department. If not for that, they would have done a Sega years ago.

Lastly, and in all honesty, how great is Nintendo console hardware when most people use it as a 2nd or 3rd console (and never their primary number one choice)? That's like saying that you'd still rather keep your wife, despite having a tart on the side.

Edit: and correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you dismiss the Vita interface as being too "kiddie", when you're now using the very same argument to justify your reasoning?

The sales (and third party support) of the Wii U testify to the fact that "under the TV" console hardware is not Nintendo's strength, and this achilles heel actually hampers their AAA First Party software division (both in profitability and software sales penetration).
Last edited by replayme on Tue Nov 19, 2013 6:40 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Jonathan Ingram »

Skykid wrote:Short story, Nintendo could have ten Wii U failures in a row, and still be in the green. Have you seen Sony's annual profit for the last decade?
That`s not true. Nintendo`s share prices are a fraction of what they traded for a few years ago. One more failure like a Wii U coupled with an underperforming handheld and you`ll see the mushroom company making apps for iOS and Android exclusively.

How Sony is doing is irrelevant to the situation Nintendo is in right now. It`s easier for a giant corporation that has its hands in pretty much everything to absorb the losses, trim the fat and reinvest. Had Nintendo incurred the losses Sony did with the PS3, they would have long been out of the console hardware business.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by louisg »

Jonathan Ingram wrote:
Skykid wrote:Short story, Nintendo could have ten Wii U failures in a row, and still be in the green. Have you seen Sony's annual profit for the last decade?
That`s not true. Nintendo`s share prices are a fraction of what they traded for a few years ago. One more failure like a Wii U coupled with an underperforming handheld and you`ll see the mushroom company making apps for iOS and Android exclusively.

How Sony is doing is irrelevant to the situation Nintendo is in right now. It`s easier for a giant corporation that has its hands in pretty much everything to absorb the losses, trim the fat and reinvest. Had Nintendo incurred the losses Sony did with the PS3, they would have long been out of the console hardware business.
I thought Sony was in trouble because their TV sales were so far down..? I remember reading that. MS is probably in a better position, for now, seeing how they pretty much own the personal computer market still. They can definitely handle some ridiculous losses.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by sven666 »

Bananamatic wrote:no shmups lol
..one of the most hyped release titles for the PS4 is a souped up defender ?
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by system11 »

I think they'll start about equal even though the Xbone is clearly unfinished in more ways than the PS4, and I think the PS4 will keep selling 'slightly more' over their lifetimes once the initial rush of Xbox fans have their machines. The same 'same game but slightly worse' thing that dogged the PS3 deservedly throughout its life is going to be turned the other way around.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Friendly »

Teufel_in_Blau wrote:
We will get shit like this Resogun
So you have played it then, or are you talking out of your arse?
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Specineff »

Sony becomes arrogant again, and bans anything that doesn't show off the power of the PS4, that is, anything 2D. Still, they dominate this generation because their games just work without the need for any gimmicks.

Nintendo concentrates on staying afloat with the 3DS and 2DS. The Wii U is just sort of there, in a state of un-life with the ocassional gem here and there. Nintendo realizes how retarded the tablet controller idea was.

Microsoft has to swallow a huge helping of humble pie. The DVR and Kinect features are heavily under-utilized, so they ditch them and release a lighter version of the Xbone which keeps them afloat, but are stuck playing second fiddle to Sony for all of the generation.

The console war ends with a whimper, instead of a bang.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by louisg »

.. and Commodore teams up with Sega to release an AWESOME system in 2014, the Master System III, that launches with an Occulus Rift reimagining of Paradroid as well as a sequel to the oft-overlooked Crackdown. Nintendo's CEO says "fuck it!", quits to join up and finally make a sequel to HAL's old LeMans game for this new system. The mascot is Big the Cat.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Vexorg »

Overall, my expectation is that PS4 will outsell Xbox One by probably 20-30% or so, and will end up leading this generation, but the overall sales across the board will be down significantly over the previous generation (I'm guessing the leader tops out at 60m or so, compared to the roughly 80m Xbox 360 sold. Wii U will lag behind significantly, but will improve somewhat over where it is now. (but most of the big Nintendo releases will still be happening on the 3DS side.) Other things I expect to see:

- It quickly becomes apparent that a lot of Xbox One users aren't even bothering to hook up the Kinect included in the box, and eventually MS releases a non-Kinect SKU;
- A significantly larger chunk of multi-platform game sales moves to PC in this generation. For this reason, console exclusives will be an even bigger part of the decision on which system to buy.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Skykid »

replayme wrote: I think your love for your 3DS is clouding your judgement.
I don't have any love for my 3DS unless it produces good games. There's not much on the horizon bar LTTP2, that's why I bought a Vita.
As a console hardware manufacturer, Nintendo haven't been relevant for about 10 years. The Wii paid off, yes, but that still doesn't change the fact that it was a fluke. The Wii U is making people realise that.

This coming generation is finally making people realise, and sales testify to this, that Nintendo are outclassed and outmatched when it comes to hardware.
These statements feel based on what you would prefer to be the truth, rather than what is the truth. Nintendo's policy is to be outmatched on hardware and deliver on games - they're one of (if not the) only company who chooses to sell hardware for profit. If that format made the Wii a fluke, that would also go for every console preceding it. Whether or not, now the gimmick has faded, it's a strategy that will continue to work is for the future to decide.
Edit: and correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't you dismiss the Vita interface as being too "kiddie", when you're now using the very same argument to justify your reasoning?
No, I dismissed the interface as terribly ugly and lesser than the company's former XMB.
The sales (and third party support) of the Wii U testify to the fact that "under the TV" console hardware is not Nintendo's strength, and this achilles heel actually hampers their AAA First Party software division (both in profitability and software sales penetration).
The Wii U doesn't single-handedly signify a track record. I don't know what the point is in so regularly referring to it.
Jonathan Ingram wrote: That`s not true. Nintendo`s share prices are a fraction of what they traded for a few years ago. One more failure like a Wii U coupled with an underperforming handheld and you`ll see the mushroom company making apps for iOS and Android exclusively.
The share prices are a result of the Wii U's underperformance, can fall and rise in an hour based on a single event, and don't reflect the savings balance. If stock prices were an issue, Sony would have folded ten years ago when their shareholders saw the first major annual losses crop up. The Wii U hardware is hardly bank breaking and the handheld division is in steady profit: tenfold with the release of the new Pokemon couplet. I doubt they've frittered all the savings away of the last half-decade.
How Sony is doing is irrelevant to the situation Nintendo is in right now. It`s easier for a giant corporation that has its hands in pretty much everything to absorb the losses, trim the fat and reinvest.
Well absorbing losses is their forte. They're still going with a $9 Billion loss this year, up double from the last, and double from the year before that. The shareholders are ready to bail, and that's bad for business, but there's no sign of a return. In-fact, by your rationale, that would make Microsoft vastly better off than Sony, since they still generate enormous profits in other divisions that their competitors do not.

This isn't a console war, it's business, and with the Japanese economy completely fucked, Sony need more than a success with the PS4 to rectify their fiscal outlook because the gaming market is increasingly shrinking in the face of mobiles - and that affects all parties. There are plenty more Sony radicals on this site than there are for any of the competitors, but that has absolutely nothing to do with business and everything to do with allegiance, and half the stuff I keep hearing is pie-in-the-sky and doesn't take into account significant factors such as losses in other sectors and the Vita performing somewhere around Game Gear standards.

Personally I don't see a way back unless they actually concede defeat to the Korean electronic giants and do more than trim fat: they need to excise any unprofitable divisions over the 5yr mark because the Yen will never allow them to produce goods at a cheap enough cost to be genuinely competitive.

Their practices and lack of mobility have been criticised widely across various economic journals for years, however, so nothing new.
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Teufel_in_Blau wrote:
We will get shit like this Resogun
So you have played it then, or are you talking out of your arse?
The latter of course, Resogun is terrific.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by BryanM »

Overall, my expectation is that PS4 will outsell Xbox One by probably 20-30% or so
I'd go as high as 80% more.

With the Wii U, the biggest issue I see is people are not transitioning to it. It sales roughly the same sum as Wiis do every week, and that's just atrocious. Especially when the thing plays Wii games by having the decency to give us some of that backwards compatibility.

It's just really odd, that person who would rather have a basic over a U... then again they're asking for twice as christfucking much for one. If they could get their box to the low $200s, it'd be in a good place. A pricepoint that Microsoft and Sony could never compete at.
and the Vita performing somewhere around Game Gear standards.
Comparing the Vita to the Game Gear is worse than comparing the Wii U to the Wii.

Please reference my signature for appropriate console comparisons.
Nintendo realizes how retarded the tablet controller idea was.
It's not entirely retarded. I mean, it's pretty awesome if you want to play with your Wii while you're on the toilet. Or wanna play a two-player monster hunter type thing off the same machine. Or anything that would have been a split screen in the old dark ages.

It's only stupid in so far that it adds cost to their box, which is the antithesis of what their business is about. That, and the whole not selling replacements yet. Apparently not until a miracle happens, they're able to update the bios so it can handle four of them at once, and people can buy them without being outraged that only one can be used at a time.

And I personally don't like how they want you to destroy the screen by touching it with your vile oily fingers of death. C'mon. I'm ocd. I can't do that.
Last edited by BryanM on Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by apatheticTurd »

Microsoft manages to book Half-Life 3 as a bone exclusive. However, upon release, the game is panned for having its plot written by John Ringo, introducing John Freeman (Gordon Freeman's brother who owns another more faster motorcycle that had gas in it this time) into canon and now featuring Gordon Freeman fully talkative and voiced by Vin Diesel. Its failure bankrupts Valve (which had wasted most of the game's budget on expansive middleware and a ludicrously expansive robotic replica of Gordon Freeman), which sell Steam's assets to EA. Steam then has its servers shut down after six months of ownership, without any solution being provided to play the games offline.

Meanwhile, Haze 2: Welcome to the Jungle is announced as a Playstation 4 exclusive. Initially overjoyed by the prospect of having a sequel to everyone's favourite bargain bin fodder, Playstation fans are heartbroken to see that the game has been overhauled into an interpretative dance simulator whose tracklist consists almost entirely of Christian rock compositions.

The Ouya becomes a powerhouse in the consequent and evergreen Android emulator-box market.

Recognizing that the WiiU's library lacks "hardcore" and "mature" products, Nintendo commission a Western-outsourced spin-off of Super Mario Bros. An hack-n-slash starring the antagonistic Bowser, the lead designer describe it as a "darker, violent, badass action game that is the antithesis of the Mario games. Something that older, action-game-loving people could enjoy." and justify the jarring tone shift with "I think it's important to give Bowser a total badass edge to be a potentially M-Rated game.". The game flops miserably, leading Nintendo to cancel an unannounced localisation of Mother 3 for the 3DS e-shop in order to recoup costs.

The failures of Half-Life 3 kills the FPS genre stone-dead, with Microsoft frantically rebooting Halo 5 as a free to play galactic-economy simulator featuring expansive micro-transactions. In the middle of this mess, Bethesda discovers that it still somehow owns the Rogue Warrior license and decides to create a sequel to the cult 2009 stealth shooter. The game is a smash hit, with critics praising its "visceral" and "thrilling" gameplay, and its tasteful portrayal of tourette syndrome sufferers. Its success single-handedly propels the Korean War as a viable setting, with various third-person shooters, RTS and railway simulators getting on the hot Korean War action. However, North Korea, offended by the game's portrayal of its military and desperate for attention, kidnap voice actor Mickey Rourke (who they mistakenly believe is the emperor of America) and launch a nuclear warhead toward New York. Fortunately, a crack team of Navy Seals manage to save Mickey intact and successfully redirect the warhead toward Dallas
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by Drum »

I really don't know. I think the Wii U is not going to turn around, but Nintendo will do what it takes to raise it a bit over Gamecube levels. I think the PS4 is going to drop off quite a bit after the launch - software just isn't there. It's also not going to steamroll the Xbone like a lot of people seem to think (hope) it will. XBO and PS4 aren't going to see the numbers their predecessors did,that's for sure. Wii U is it's own special failure so I don't think you can point to it to show the beginning of a trend, but there's something there. Tablets and phones are drawing interest away from consoles in the west the way they did in Japan. People who think that only affected the 3DS/Vita are fooling themselves. The long tail of this gen and the lack of a really obvious jump will negatively affect the new gen not just in the short term.
Last edited by Drum on Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:16 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by BulletMagnet »

BryanM wrote:I mean, it's pretty awesome if you want to play with your Wii while you're on the toilet.
I can't tell whether or not that one was intentional, and moreover am unsure which scenario would disappoint me more.
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by replayme »

BryanM wrote:
Overall, my expectation is that PS4 will outsell Xbox One by probably 20-30% or so
I'd go as high as 80% more.

With the Wii U, the biggest issue I see is people are not transitioning to it. It sales roughly the same sum as Wiis do every week, and that's just atrocious. Especially when the thing plays Wii games by having the decency to give us some of that backwards compatibility.

It's just really odd, that person who would rather have a basic over a U... then again they're asking for twice as christfucking much for one. If they could get their box to the low $200s, it'd be in a good place. A pricepoint that Microsoft and Sony could never compete at.
and the Vita performing somewhere around Game Gear standards.
Comparing the Vita to the Game Gear is worse than comparing the Wii U to the Wii.

Please reference my signature for appropriate console comparisons.
Nintendo realizes how retarded the tablet controller idea was.
It's not entirely retarded. I mean, it's pretty awesome if you want to play with your Wii while you're on the toilet. Or wanna play a two-player monster hunter type thing off the same machine. Or anything that would have been a split screen in the old dark ages.

It's only stupid in so far that it adds cost to their box, which is the antithesis of what their business is about. That, and the whole not selling replacements yet. Apparently not until a miracle happens, they're able to update the bios so it can handle four of them at once, and people can buy them without being outraged that only one can be used at a time.

And I personally don't like how they want you to destroy the screen by touching it with your vile oily fingers of death. C'mon. I'm ocd. I can't do that.
As a premium priced console, the Wii U is dead. The only thing Nintendo can do to save it is drop the price, ala original Wii comparative levels when that console was a going concern, and hope that people pick it up then. It'll still be a console with Special Needs though...
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Re: Make Your Next-Gen Predictions!

Post by replayme »

Drum wrote:I really don't know. I think the Wii U is not going to turn around, but Nintendo will do what it takes to raise it a bit over Gamecube levels. I think the PS4 is going to drop off quite a bit after the launch - software just isn't there. It's also not going to steamroll the Xbone like a lot of people seem to think (hope) it will. XBO and PS4 aren't going to see the numbers their predecessors did,that's for sure. Wii U is it's own special failure so I don't think you can point to it to show the beginning of a trend, but there's something there. Tablets and phones are drawing interest away from consoles in the west the way they did in Japan. People who think that only affected the 3DS/Vita are fooling themselves. The long tail of this gen and the lack of a really obvious jump will negatively affect the new gen not just in the short term.
I hope for the sake of the industry, Nintendo don't turn the Wii U around. That console is a disease that needs to be wiped out.
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