PS4 / Xbox One console war

[Ed Oscuro]

The major unknown I see here is whether Amazon return rates and reviews for different items can be compared - whether more popular items (or specific popular items) mean that a smaller percentage of users just write it off and stop wasting time on it. Spending $400 will mean more people spend the time to make sure they get it right than if they were buying a $12 flashlight or whatever.

If anything, you might draw an intermediate conclusion - that cheap things on Amazon are probably often worse than their reviews show, so it's not that the expensive items are better than the reviews show, but that cheap items are worse.

Is there any way of actually getting data about returns (even stories) and comparing that to the actual number of sales (sales rank perhaps)? I assume there may be.

This said, people routinely leave Amazon reviews on $12 flashlights and knives (myself included - watch out for the ones that have an aperture exactly the right side to get a penny stuck in).

[BryanM]

Wait, doesn't the thing use a hard drive? With teh magnets and the spinning and the little head that almost scrapes against it at the atomic level?

If its using a standard old fashioned hard drive, a 0.4% error rate is a flat out fantasy. They'd have to be testing literally every unit on the line for many minutes to get it that low. Billions of manhours. Otherwise, it's the standard 5-20% fail rate everyone else has. And that's one part.

[system11]

This issue may not affect 50% of consoles but it is significant compared to other reliable devices. Currently, it's only certain that Amazon is affected. We'll see in the next few days whether it applies elsewhere as well. I'll update with my personal experience when my Amazon-sourced PS4 arrives.

This entire view isn't supported by any logical or statistical basis though. Even if we assume /every/ comment is an individual failed machine, how many hundred thousand did Amazon ship? At a conservative estimate of 100,000 we're at less than half a percent. If we say that only 50% of people who bought a broken one posted about it, which in this day and age is very unlikely, it's still under 1%.

It's like the whole internet is failing to apply any common sense to this. It's got to the level of senseless and irresponsible fearmongering. If you bought 100 Lenovo laptops in a batch, how many would you expect to be broken? I can tell you (from experience I should add) it's more than 1%.

[replayme]

the new systems [are] a reasonable investment as a day one purchase.

Even if you don't find $10 Xbox 360s (which is unreasonable to expect, of course) the new consoles are a very expensive form of entertainment compared with the ever-growing stable of free (legal) and less expensive alternatives out there. For me, the success of consoles reduces the rationale for the "day one purchase" every year. Until there is something in consoles that actually transforms your engagement with games (make money! Hook in with real virtual reality!) the "reasonable investment" is getting hammered by the growing worldwide backlog.

I also really doubt that even playing fast and loose with my notion of "preferences" in entertainment is going to overcome my preference for things to pay for themselves in the future.

Of course it is nice to be on the cutting edge of technology, but let's not fool ourselves into believing that the last-gen systems (there's a first) didn't look stunning on release, that the Xbox / PS2 / DC generation didn't look stunning on release, and on and on, all the way back to the Magnavox Odyssey, VCS, Pong consoles, Spacewar! and Tennis For Two.

I only referred to the new systems as being a reasonable investment, because I can't see any of them failing. The momentum of both of those consoles (more so with the PS4) will see to it that they get considerable support over the years.

And yes, they are expensive forms of entertainment. For the money, you can buy so many "last gen" games for the equivalent cost of just one "next gen" game. I can say this because I bought 3 PSP games, 2 XBox games, and 1 XBox 360 game the other day. All for the princely sum of £7.

But I guess that's the price one has to pay for being a first adopter. And for having anything that is considered as being desirable.

EDIT: here are the games...

PSP
Virtua Tennis 3
Little Big Planet
Everybodys Golf

XBox
Midway Arcade Treasures
Midway Arcade Treasures 2

XBox 360
Homefront

[replayme]

This issue may not affect 50% of consoles but it is significant compared to other reliable devices. Currently, it's only certain that Amazon is affected. We'll see in the next few days whether it applies elsewhere as well. I'll update with my personal experience when my Amazon-sourced PS4 arrives.

This entire view isn't supported by any logical or statistical basis though. Even if we assume /every/ comment is an individual failed machine, how many hundred thousand did Amazon ship? At a conservative estimate of 100,000 we're at less than half a percent. If we say that only 50% of people who bought a broken one posted about it, which in this day and age is very unlikely, it's still under 1%.

It's like the whole internet is failing to apply any common sense to this. It's got to the level of senseless and irresponsible fearmongering. If you bought 100 Lenovo laptops in a batch, how many would you expect to be broken? I can tell you (from experience I should add) it's more than 1%.

Don't forget the number of people who bought their PS4 consoles just so that they can blow them up or microwave them for Youtube videos.

[Ed Oscuro]

Wait, doesn't the thing use a hard drive? With teh magnets and the spinning and the little head that almost scrapes against it at the atomic level?

If its using a standard old fashioned hard drive, a 0.4% error rate is a flat out fantasy. They'd have to be testing literally every unit on the line for many minutes to get it that low. Billions of manhours. Otherwise, it's the standard 5-20% fail rate everyone else has. And that's one part.

Not if you do it the NASA pre-Challenger way!

But I guess that's the price one has to pay for being a first adopter. And for having anything that is considered as being desirable.

Who gets to tell you what's considered desirable? Knock them the fuck out. JONZES BITCHES CAN'T KEEP UP WITH MY OTOGI AND CHAIN DIVER.

[Ganelon]

This entire view isn't supported by any logical or statistical basis though. Even if we assume /every/ comment is an individual failed machine, how many hundred thousand did Amazon ship? At a conservative estimate of 100,000 we're at less than half a percent. If we say that only 50% of people who bought a broken one posted about it, which in this day and age is very unlikely, it's still under 1%.

Why would 50% of people post a 1-star review ASAP instead of waiting for a solution? And how would 50% of buyers on Amazon even have the system by now? The PS4 was only released yesterday. I'm willing to agree to disagree on this issue for now and let next week prove our stances because...

I got my PS4 from Amazon today. I was a bit concerned when I saw that the manufacturing plant was Hongfujin Yantai but the system thankfully turned on alright.

System setup and the firmware update (the very first thing I did) was much faster than anything in the last generation. The firmware download itself seemed to be about 10x faster than PS3 for the same data oddly enough (one area where the PS4 rockets above the lethargic Wii U).

I received a few glitches during my testing: once when switching accounts where I got a dreaded "database recovery" that miraculously finished in an instant, once when exiting standby mode where I couldn't connect to the internet anymore until I rebooted the system, and once where the PSN store simply refused to load (just pressing O did the trick). If anyone needs the error codes, they're logged. There didn't appear to be any major hassles although I was certainly trying to baby the system as much as possible while Sony works out the firmware kinks. As expected, the Japanese PSN store doesn't seem to be up yet.

Otherwise, everything looks fine. The $10 rebate checked out. The system is extremely quiet (akin to a PS3 slim), remained cool while watching movies, and had no disc scratching problems. The design is elegant although I'm not sure I like the buttons and disc tray so well hidden (reminds me of the PS2 slim). Interesting how there are no longer any rubber pads on the system. The DualShock 4 feels much better than the DualShock 3. Not having a Start and Select feels a little strange but the overall design is the first major improvement since the original DualShock. Vita Remote Play is smoother than on PS3 but still too laggy for any serious twitch action game.

There are clearly features that have yet to be implemented in the system itself, such as a way to adjust the theme/background/wallpaper. And there's still the matter of the sparse library for niche gamers. But overall, it's been a pleasant step into the next generation, and I'll cross my fingers that the system maintains stability through the coming years.

[replayme]

Those 1 stars probably came from Nintendo owners...

http://youtu.be/ITOallKWew0

So many truth bombs right there...

[Ed Oscuro]

Why would 50% of people post a 1-star review ASAP instead of waiting for a solution?

Speaking of bombs (like google bombs and spam bombs) I wonder how many of those are from "confirmed purchasers." I thank you for putting it this way - it does seem rather fishy.

Nevertheless I do expect early adopters, who have thrown their $400 in search of an experience they did not have their entire lives before this point, to gnash their teeth and stare balefully at the open invitation to "Write a Review" while they wonder what the hell is taking so long in getting their unit fixed. When you pay $400 be the first person, you expect to have it turn out right from the first moment, whether or not that is a reasonable expectation. Sometimes "shoot first (or at least really early), ask questions later" seems to work, after all.

[replayme]

I actually cancelled my (day one) PS4 pre-order yesterday. It's the prospect of buying a 3DS/Zelda combo that made me do it. Or just blowing £150 on current gen games like The Last of Us.

I'm not bitter though... The PS4 is going to be bought at some point. It's not an "if", but a "when" that bugs me right now.

Maybe Xmas 2014, although I might even opt to buy it for Watch Dogs come Spring.

[charlie chong]

just to make it clear i don't think anyone is silly for buying one of these consoles at launch.if you've got the money and are definitely planning to pick one up in the future it makes sense as long as you are not scared of launch hardware.the ps4 entry price is not suoer high either which helps and no doubt both these machines will have great games eventually..i guess i'm just sad that consoles don't launch with a "killer app" anymore the industry is definitely giving us more and more unfinished games(early access pass anyone?
) and using us as unpaid alpha/beta testers

[charlie chong]

I hate it when people say "[system name] has no games!" Fucking wait!

I hate it when people say "apple pippin has no games!" Fucking wait!

[Ganelon]

Speaking of bombs (like google bombs and spam bombs) I wonder how many of those are from "confirmed purchasers." I thank you for putting it this way - it does seem rather fishy.

The vast majority (80+%) of negative PS4 reviews on Amazon are from verified purchases (at least as of ~12 hours ago). This percentage is no less than that of positive reviews from verified purchases. How do I know? I glanced through the pages of reviews myself to check because I wanted to make sure I had an accurate understanding of the situation (e.g. the obvious Microsoft/Nintendo conspiracy theories) before posting my original assertions.

This is the third time in this topic that I've stated the Amazon data is from verified purchases. I'm almost wondering if parts of my posts are being translated into some sort of gibberish. If not, then I'll repeat my suggestion to see if the Xbox One release and any PS4 news next week paints a clearer picture.

Why waste time now when the parallel situation next week should more clearly show whether the PS4 has a significant production issue at hand or if there's just a very loud minority complaining about an insignificantly rare problem? Now, this situation does assume the launch Xbone has no major issues, although I'll concede for the short term if there's the same proportion of negative:positive reviews (currently 1:2) regardless of any issues.

[system11]

Why would 50% of people post a 1-star review ASAP instead of waiting for a solution? And how would 50% of buyers on Amazon even have the system by now? The PS4 was only released yesterday. I'm willing to agree to disagree on this issue for now and let next week prove our stances because...

I got my PS4 from Amazon today. I was a bit concerned when I saw that the manufacturing plant was Hongfujin Yantai but the system thankfully turned on alright.

Point 1 - small update on numbers, Sony just announced that 1 million consoles have been shipped to customers, that means to follow the alleged pattern for laptops (5% but that seems overly kind compared to what I've seen at work), 50 thousand need to fail for it to be a normal situation.

Point 2 - and this is why the fearmongering is so bad and needs to stop.

From reading lots of reports I do think there might be a firmware bug surrounding netcode vs network glitches, a common theme for non-DOA units which have crashed and needed a cold or full factory reset is that they were downloading/installing something. I'll be updating mine via a USB stick offline as a precaution because PSN has always seemed flaky where I live.

[Friendly]

Was just about to post the same, you saved me the time. Logic, it's awesome.

1 million sold to customers in a single day is amazing. Wonder how the European launch will go.

[replayme]

just to make it clear i don't think anyone is silly for buying one of these consoles at launch.if you've got the money and are definitely planning to pick one up in the future it makes sense as long as you are not scared of launch hardware.the ps4 entry price is not suoer high either which helps and no doubt both these machines will have great games eventually..i guess i'm just sad that consoles don't launch with a "killer app" anymore the industry is definitely giving us more and more unfinished games(early access pass anyone?
) and using us as unpaid alpha/beta testers

Quoted for truth, especially when one considers that the Wii U was £300 on launch.

The PS4 will have more (quality) games, will be in infinitely better health, and will therefore represent a significantly better investment one year on, than the likes of what the Wii U represents at its own 1 year lifecycle today.

Man, I loved Nintendo back in the Snes days. But I can't think of any other company that has fallen so far, so fast, in such a short period of time. As for MS... I think they messed up too. But not to the same degree as Nintendo - and this comes from someone who had such a hard on for MS come XBox and XBox 360.

Can't think of any other console apart from the PS4 which has such a clear shot at the home-run at the moment.

[replayme]

Was just about to post the same, you saved me the time. Logic, it's awesome.

1 million sold to customers in a single day is amazing. Wonder how the European launch will go.

And Nintendo fanboys think the Wii U still has a chance? Man, facts like this make one realise that it's "Game Over" for the Wii U.

It's crazy for Nintendo to even think that they should continue as a hardware manufacturer after numbers like the above.

[system11]

the industry is definitely giving us more and more unfinished games(early access pass anyone?) and using us as unpaid alpha/beta testers

Yup - everything about this launch is rushed. I want Ubisoft to announce WHEN the 1080P patch for Black Flag will be out, I don't want 'soon' because it should be like that on the disc in the first place.

[Octopod]

Was just about to post the same, you saved me the time. Logic, it's awesome.

1 million sold to customers in a single day is amazing. Wonder how the European launch will go.

And Nintendo fanboys think the Wii U still has a chance? Man, facts like this make one realise that it's "Game Over" for the Wii U.

It's crazy for Nintendo to even think that they should continue as a hardware manufacturer after numbers like the above.

Sony is estimating 3 million consoles shipped world wide over the PS4s first year. The Wii U has sold just shy of 4 million consoles in its first year on the market. Yet the Wii U is a bomb, failure, what have you. Mmk. The Wii U will be fine, Nintendo will eek a profit from it and 4 or 5 years from now they will release another home console. Even if they stopped making home consoles for some reason they would just focus on their handhelds and release their games solely for that platform. I do not see Nintendo leaving the hardware business when their handhelds continue to sell excellent numbers. That is just wishful thinking on your part.

Edit: Maybe that Sony estimate is for the this year. That would make more sense honestly. Either way I'll pick one up in a year(ish) time if it has some good games out by then.

[replayme]

I regret cancelling my PS4 (day one) pre-order now. Maybe I'm a victim of hype, but a day one purchase would have sounded nice for a console with such a bright future ahead of it.

And in the one year since launch, I doubt the price is going to drop significantly enough for me to justify waiting till Xmas 2014.

[replayme]

Was just about to post the same, you saved me the time. Logic, it's awesome.

1 million sold to customers in a single day is amazing. Wonder how the European launch will go.

And Nintendo fanboys think the Wii U still has a chance? Man, facts like this make one realise that it's "Game Over" for the Wii U.

It's crazy for Nintendo to even think that they should continue as a hardware manufacturer after numbers like the above.

Sony is estimating 3 million consoles shipped world wide over the PS4s first year. The Wii U has sold just shy of 4 million consoles in its first year on the market. Yet the Wii U is a bomb, failure, what have you. Mmk. The Wii U will be fine, Nintendo will eek a profit from it and 4 or 5 years from now they will release another home console. Even if they stopped making home consoles for some reason they would just focus on their handhelds and release their games solely for that platform. I do not see Nintendo leaving the hardware business when their handhelds continue to sell excellent numbers. That is just wishful thinking on your part.

The Wii U has SHIPPED less than 4 million units - most of which are sitting in warehouses.

Handheld hardware: yes. But as a company catering for mainstream console tastes: Game Over.

Which is a shame as I really want a "next gen" Zelda.

[Octopod]

Which is a shame as I really want a "next gen" Zelda.

I don't even really know what this means. They are working on a Zelda Wii U game but I suspect it will not be "Next Gen" enough for you. Either way, off topic. I hope everyone that got a PS4 is enjoying their new console.

[replayme]

Which is a shame as I really want a "next gen" Zelda.

I don't even really know what this means. They are working on a Zelda Wii U game but I suspect it will not be "Next Gen" enough for you. Either way, off topic. I hope everyone that got a PS4 is enjoying their new console.

No... Sadly, it's not "next gen" enough for me. I'll still buy it though, because by that point the Wii U will be about £150 in the UK.

I think what I want most from a "premium" console purchase (for which even £150 is "premium" for me) is for it to have healthy third party support and a healthy eco-system. I like Nintendo games, but not enough to shell out £250 for them. I think this is why I don't agree with the notion that the Wii U is a good console. It's just too expensive for what it represents.

As for the PS4: I'm with you on this. Hope everyone who bought one is enjoying it.

Edit: what I meant by "next gen" was a Zelda title where the hardware base justified the high R&D costs. Not a cut-price compromise where the lack of an instal base will hamper development investment. Because the title won't recoup.

That's why Wii U owners have got Zelda WW HD and Mario 3D Land - both of which involve using tried and tested mechanics, as well as "reusing" existing assets.

The instal base for the Wii U doesn't afford Nintendo to innovate or to take risks. That's why the 3DS is so good, as its instal-base allows Nintendo to justify its software R&D efforts and to shine as a consequence.

Edit x 2: the 3 million instal base for PS4 consoles is for this (2013) year. And I personally think Sony will reach about 4-5 million by December's end.

[BryanM]

And I personally think Sony will reach about 4-5 million by December's end.

Yeah good luck with that. And Mitt Romney is totally gonna win the election.

:roll eyes:

most of which are sitting in warehouses

That word doesn't mean what you think it means.

[replayme]

Yeah... Sorry, I meant that the consoles are sitting in attics, second hand shops, trash cans... Most retailers actually ended up sending their allocated stock back.

And I don't know about the PS4. 1 million in 24 hours in USA alone, and it hasn't even launched in Europe... I think 4-5 million is pretty obtainable.

[Udderdude]

PS4 wins this generation already, wrap it up.

[Xyga]

Most retailers actually ended up sending their allocated stock back.

And I don't know about the PS4. 1 million in 24 hours in USA alone, and it hasn't even launched in Europe... I think 4-5 million is pretty obtainable.

My job is to purchase stock and what you say is very true.

Suppliers around the world were done allocating PS4 stock maybe 2 months ago.
They don't know the lead time for more and nobody will even accept my purchase orders to reserve a portion of the next batch.
People and stores desperate to get some have been calling and emailing us every frigging day since early November.

For the Xbox One the allocations stopped maybe 2 or 3 weeks ago, I can still buy stock for December but nobody could give me a reliable ETA.
Which means: very few chances to get more in time for Xmas.

And the WiiU... I can get enough tomorrow to build a castle the size of Versailles with the boxes if you wish.

Honestly I could care less (I iz a genuine retrogaming nut) but if someone would sell me a few pallets of PS4 to stop my boss from staring at me I'd be a happy man.

[replayme]

I really do regret cancelling my PS4 preorder now.

I would have had it day one too.

[Xyga]

There aren't any games worth playing on any of the three consoles anyway.

Just buy a 3DS if you don't have one yet.

[replayme]

There aren't any games worth playing on any of the three consoles anyway.

Just buy a 3DS if you don't have one yet.

You make it sound so simple...

I would buy a 3DS/Zelda combo, if not for the list of games I am compiling for purchase on Boxing Day. At present, the list is as follows, and I'm trying to stick to a budget of about £150.

£2.00 Eledees Wii
£1.00 Xfiles PS2
£1.00 Final Fight Streetwise PS2
£15.00 US PSN credit PSP
£12.00 Star Ocean PSP
£20.00 Rayman Legends Vita
£20.00 Tearaway Vita
£25.00 The Last of Us PS3
£35.00 Tales of Xillia PS3
£3.50 Lost Odyssey Xbox 360
£40.00 Steam sale PC


As you can see, I've already gone past £170. And that's just a wee bit too much, when there is so much other stuff I want to get too.