Game Value Speculation

[mrsmiley381]

I'm no expert on economics. In fact, based on what one of my professors had to say on a paper I wrote, I'm terrible at being expert on my work experiences. But that's not so important.

The question I'm posing today concerns pricing speculation. You can do it with about any physical good and even with property. You buy something for a low price now and hopefully you can sell it for more later.

So, what about game prices? How the hell can we even speculate on long term value? Check out Super Mario All-Stars for the Wii. A friend of mine and I decided about a week after its release that even though it was selling out everywhere Nintendo would just reprint it. We were wrong, except he still got two copies before the price jump.

Meanwhile, I swear Sega games in general have just dropped in price. I never saw it coming. I guess there's not as much demand for Mutant League Football any more. Or maybe that was just general devaluation over time.

Like I said, not an expert on economics.

So today I have a dilemma. I acquired a sealed copy of Ikaruga (Dreamcast) for stupidly cheap. Luck on an eBay auction, I guess. What would you do if you had a copy? Crack it open and play it? Sell it now? Hold on to it for years and sell it? Do you think it would have value over time? Did the 360 "port" permanently de-value all existing copies?

Apply the same question to any sealed or mint condition game that might be in elevated demand. How can you pick out a game you know will be worth more in time? I just wanted to pose these questions and hear some thoughts on all of this.

[undamned]

[jerk response]If somebody actually knew, why would they tell you?[/jerk response]



Who knows? I've got a crap load of sealed games, but not for value. They are just games I really like, so as an homage to their memory I kept a sealed copy. Have any of them increased in value? Sure, some many times what I paid. Would it have been worth tracking down, holding onto for 5 years, and looking for the right buyer to maximize my profit? Probably not. There is so much leg work involved and money wrapped up in it that if you are doing it as an investment it's pure idiocy, imo. I've made far more money off of used arcade stuff than any sealed console game.

An example of failure:

When the Ltd. Ed. Resident Evil XBOX 360 came out ($299.99 retail) I snagged one new/shipped from Dell for $278, with the intention of sitting on it and selling it. I think I sat on the thing for 2 years before just needing to at least get my money back. Threw it up on teh eBay and guess what I got? My money back. 0 profit. And if you account for all the running around I had to do (purchase from Dell, keep the monstrosity in my already small closet for 2 years, sell it on eBay, carefully pack the thing so it doesn't get crushed in shipping, take it to the shippers, blah, blah, blah) I lost on the deal.

Example of win:

On second thought, I'm not even going to detail a single instance because it's the rule, not the exception, in my case. I buy arcade games regularly, enjoy them for as long as I want (often times years), and almost always make money when I sell them (and that's selling at market value, not gouging). No storing and wondering when to sell it or if I should open it. Just play to your hearts content and sell it when you get tired of it or need money. Big win.
-ud

[Dave_K.]

Lock thread now before its too late.

[KindGrind]

I picked up all the japanese-only Megadrive / DC / Saturn / PSX shmups within the last few years. All like new.

Stuff like Eliminate Down, Slap Fight, ZxZ, Panorama Cotton, Hyper Duel, Harmful Park, Border Down LE, etc. You name it, really. I bought them all, and at very good prices. Thought I'd enjoy great games AND -and this was an afterthought- they might go up in value over time, so I envisioned a pretty typical win-win scenario.

Sold most of them last year and iirc I barely broke even. I think I gave people good deals, just like I got equally good deals when I bought the games myself. So, overall... Speculatively speaking, not a good investment. Entertainment-wise, a truly amazing one.

On the other hand, keeping games sealed in order to flip them for money is a pretty random affair. You'll make $ on some things, and most likely take a huge hit on others. And you won't get any enjoyment out of it... Why bother?

[mrsmiley381]

Lock thread now before its too late.

Relax, we're adults here and I think we're having some solid examples here.

On the other hand, keeping games sealed in order to flip them for money is a pretty random affair. You'll make $ on some things, and most likely take a huge hit on others. And you won't get any enjoyment out of it... Why bother?

That's a good point. It's not that I'm hellbent on selling the game, it's just that there is a potential profit to be made, which I guess could be converted into more games, or more profit, or more self-consuming greed. I just didn't know what to expect over the long term. Looks like my best option might be just to open it. I'd like to see if there are any different responses first. The plus side is that I have plenty of other games to play and it's not killing me to leave it sealed. Leaving it sealed made me pose some questions and lead to some discussion, so I guess there might be some value in that.

[gct]

I'm not certain that relying on the appreciating value of video games is a good way of making money.

Let's say in a good case, you might earn $100 on a game after one year. This happens extremely rarely but let's just say this for the sake of argument.

It might be worthwhile if you can accurately predict which games will appreciate by this amount and then buy at least 10 copies, but if we're talking just one or two copies here and there, there are probably better ways to make $100 in a year (or save $100 in a year from other regular expenses. Coffee drinker?)

But this thread is about ways we can predict which games will appreciate... I don't know how. And if I did, I wouldn't tell you

There ought to be a few examples of games which depreciated rapidly and then suddenly surged in price for reasons nobody could have predicted though, such as the first edition of Lumines for PSP. But even then, I don't know how much higher than the original retail cost it went, if it surpassed that mark at all.

As others have said, PCBs purchased in the used market tend to hold their value well and you get to play them too.

[GaijinPunch]

This has been talked about before many times. If you know how speculation works, you'll probably agree that games are an awful means of investment. They are not liquid, and 99% of them lose some 90% of their value after a few years.

[Wonderbanana]

On the other hand, keeping games sealed in order to flip them for money is a pretty random affair. You'll make $ on some things, and most likely take a huge hit on others. And you won't get any enjoyment out of it... Why bother?

QFT. For every game I've made money on, I've lost it on another.

Not fussed by it, I buy what I want to play and I sell what I'm tired of or to raise funds for something else I want. I done away with the hoarding and collecting a long time ago when I realised there was really little point.

Very few items increase in price that much and very few items are genuine rarities that can't be acquired again if the fancy takes you.

[Elixir]

[dcharlie]

such as the first edition of Lumines for PSP. But even then, I don't know how much higher than the original retail cost it went, if it surpassed that mark at all.

yup, there's also that element of selling out at the right time - Lumines went up because it enabled some of the first hacks for PSP so it shot up to 15k after being a bargain bin game - now it's right back down again because the method is redundant.

Kakuto Chojin had a brief flirt with "stupid price" once it was pulled but it quickly dropped back to bargain bin prices too

[neorichieb1971]

For me its just a nice surprise if a games value went up. I don't bank on it.

I do however look at the economics of PCB's HOLDING their value. I see them as low risk after a port has come out. Economics say a bare PCB can't be valued at much more than $500 if a port is available. For home consoles the risk is much greater because of the ability to mass produce/emulate/re-release/re-package.

On a whim I decided to keep all my day 1 releases. Ridge Racer/Mario 64 + Pilotwings, Day 1 PS1, Day 1 Dreamcast with orange carry bag. Basically things that will say "I was there at the beginning". So far though, none of those items are worth diddly squat. But I will imagine in 20 years time it might. I will just enjoy those items until then.

[Skykid]

This has been talked about before many times. If you know how speculation works, you'll probably agree that games are an awful means of investment. They are not liquid, and 99% of them lose some 90% of their value after a few years.

100% of new games plummet in value after about 2 weeks, and barely any ever get back to the original RRP. Super Famicom and PCE games etc used to cost £50+ at retail, not many exist above that figure in todays used market.

By that note investing in back catalogues is the only way to go, but by this point the valuable ones have already been noted and prices are sticking.

Your only hope is that one day retro gaming is recognised as a dwindling but rare and desirable form of media (what, it come's in a box? With instructions?!) and people outside of the gaming scene decide to invest in antique electronic novelties, thus forcing prices up. Either that or we bleed Japan totally dry and they come back to us to try to get their games back. At which point we charge them double.

Either that or you can just open all that fucking cellophane and play the god damn things. They're fun, you know.

[Icarus]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yx08AILJDco
Obligatory post in a game value thread.

[Skykid]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yx08AILJDco
Obligatory post in a game value thread.

That looks like one familiar and super cool dude!