This generation of consoles- lifespan?

[evil_ash_xero]

This seems to be a really "slow" generation. The games come out pretty slow(well, the U.S. games are kinda quick), and both systems still need, IMHO, a good bit more games before they can reach PS2 level of awesomeness. It probably won't happen, but they can certainly do better.

Both systems have been out for a few years, and have just released "slim" versions, and goofy motion devices. Also, Sony's machine is now affordable.
I'm guessing M and S are in it for a while longer. I kind of think if they made new systems now, it would be REALLY bad for the industry.

How long do you see these systems lasting?

Also, how long do you see the PSP lasting? It's still building it's library, and it's been out for a while now. It doesn't really have any reason to upgrade, since the 3DS probably won't be any more powerful(graphically)...from what i've seen anyway.

Guesses?

[linko9]

I think the PS3 will be around for another 4/5 years. 360 might get a true successor much sooner, maybe in 2 years? I think when Natal tanks, Microsoft will realize that the best strategy will be to beat Sony out of the gate yet again. I'd expect a new Nintendo system to be announced at next E3, and to come out before the end of that year. There are a few rumors of PSP2 at TGS, but I think that sounds doubtful. I certainly expect to see the PSP2 next year, probably in the first half of the year. All just guesses, but guessing is fun, so whatever.

[drauch]

It's hard to say. I'd like to think with all the random crap, different versions, and updates to the PS3/360 it'll be just a few years down the road; how many years I couldn't say.I'd say the Wii will be sitting the longest out of the bunch.

[TaygetaVendetta]

I think how soon we see a new Xbox console depends on how well or poor the Kinect does. Regardless, though, I think they'll get their newest console out before Sony again, as it served them well with the 360.

I doubt the PS3 will have a lifespan of 10 years like Sony claimed, or at least 10 years as the leading/newest PS console. I demo'd the motion controller thing for it at Best Buy the other day and it is basically just the Wii, but with better A/V. Think it has less of a chance than the Kinect at setting the world on fire as far as motion controls are concerned and won't have an impact either way on the lifespan of the PS3.

Handhelds and Nintendo I honestly don't keep up with anymore and don't really care.

[louisg]

I'd be surprised if nothing new is announced in one year's time. Maybe this generation has a couple more years, guessing based on the lifespan of previous generations (which is many times more than 5 years if you measure from the first company's system to the last to be pulled, esp. if you include jp release dates).

[BulletMagnet]

Considering the overall state of the economy as well as the constantly-increasing investment required to produce a "guaranteed" hit in the industry, I wouldn't be too surprised to see the console manufacturers sticking with their current setups longer than they historically have, trying to squeeze all they can out of them before moving on.

That said, for consumers the rule remains the same as it always has - no matter what the industry's self-imposed schedule might be, stick with what you have until upgrading to the next generation is worth the cost to you.

[Ex-Cyber]

They will probably last another 5 years, if not longer. The technology shifts just aren't here yet to support a new generation, and aren't on the horizon in any concrete way AFAICT. 360 and PS3 were necessary to support HD resolutions and online services as standard platform features, and also took advantage of the programmable shader revolution in GPUs and major advancements in chip manufacturing.

I don't mean to say that technology hasn't advanced at all, just that there hasn't been anything that really makes 360 and PS3 obsolete, and I don't know of any plans for anything that would do so (I'm assuming that the current "3D" stuff is a fad). A current high-end gaming PC can obviously do more detail and higher framerates, but it's not a generational gap in my opinion. Also, the rate of advancement in chip manufacturing is slowing down and is expected to start running into serious barriers around the 2015-2018 timeframe. CPU vendors are mostly embracing multi-core rather than cranking up clock speeds even further, and 360 and PS3 are already multi-core systems. Likewise, there have been incremental advancements in GPU technology, but nothing like the shift from fixed-function to programmable pipelines.

[Vexorg]

I'm going to guess we'll start hearing about new MS and Sony consoles sometime around E3 2012 or so, with 2013 launches. I don't expect Kinect and PSMove to out-and-out bomb, but I expect both to ultimately end up being unprofitable, especially in light of the huge R&D investments they represent. Given the fact that MS seems to expect Kinect to keep the 360 going for several more years and is putting tons of effort into it, disappointing sales of the Kinect are going to result in mad scrambling to come up with a plan B, which could result in a new Xbox being rushed out a lot sooner than it should be. Sony, for its part, will just stubbornly keep flogging the PSMove long beyond the point where they've saturated the base of rabid Sony diehards that will account for 75% of the sales.

I can't say for sure when a new Nintendo console is going to be announced. They'll just keep pushing the Wii for as long as people buy it, but there are definitely some signs that they're losing some steam. In the meantime, I suspect that there is at least some degree of risk that Apple could start stealing a bigger share of the market than people might expect, but this is largely dependent on how well they can advance the state of iOS gaming beyond its current shovelware state.

[CMoon]

They will probably last another 5 years, if not longer. The technology shifts just aren't here yet to support a new generation, and aren't on the horizon in any concrete way AFAICT. 360 and PS3 were necessary to support HD resolutions and online services as standard platform features, and also took advantage of the programmable shader revolution in GPUs and major advancements in chip manufacturing.

I don't mean to say that technology hasn't advanced at all, just that there hasn't been anything that really makes 360 and PS3 obsolete, and I don't know of any plans for anything that would do so (I'm assuming that the current "3D" stuff is a fad). A current high-end gaming PC can obviously do more detail and higher framerates, but it's not a generational gap in my opinion. Also, the rate of advancement in chip manufacturing is slowing down and is expected to start running into serious barriers around the 2015-2018 timeframe. CPU vendors are mostly embracing multi-core rather than cranking up clock speeds even further, and 360 and PS3 are already multi-core systems. Likewise, there have been incremental advancements in GPU technology, but nothing like the shift from fixed-function to programmable pipelines.

I agree with a lot in this post. If you look at the last three consoles, each has actually pushed new technology (Saturn/PSX were disc based and could play CDs, PS2 and XBox could play DVDs, and now the PS3 and 360 each made a stab at the new HD mediums. On a very simplistic level, it's 2010 and a great many people still haven't bought into HD. The next wave of consoles definitely will need to be boosting something beyond just better graphics to push consumers into buying a new console--and currently I'm not sure what that would be.

[Ex-Cyber]

I'm going to guess we'll start hearing about new MS and Sony consoles sometime around E3 2012 or so, with 2013 launches.

The thing is, I don't see what MS and Sony would even replace their console designs with right now. The diversity of 10-15 years ago has all but vanished. Right now the major chip vendors are mostly trying to support two system design patterns that have any relevance to gaming:

1) Gaming PC: Intel or AMD CPU with discrete Nvidia or AMD GPU
2) Smartphone/Tablet: ARM Cortex-A8/A9 or similar with PowerVR GPU

Going the first route basically leads to having a proprietary PC in console clothing like the original Xbox. Going the second route is unlikely to give a solid performance boost since those designs are typically optimized for lower power consumption rather than maximum processing performance. Blending the two toward a PC CPU and mobile GPU gets you current netbooks. A console design might try to blend in the other direction, with a performance-optimized ARM CPU and a discrete GPU, but I'm not sure what performance that would get and it might complicate GPU support.

[Vexorg]

It's been clear for years that we're seeing dimishing returns on hardware improvements (the Xbox 360 is five years old by now, and the current high-end graphics cards on PC look only marginally better on screen in spite of much greater processing power) and I expect that the same will hold true for the next generation of consoles (with the exception of Nintendo, which will have to catch up and go HD somewhere along the line. With little to distinguish the Sony and MS consoles on hardware specs, I see most of the differentiation in the next generation being on the software side. Already in this generation we've seen major improvements and features being added through firmware updates and downloads, and MS seems confident they can beat the competition in this department. Sony, for their part, seems to do a pretty good job of at least keeping parity, but they still seem to be consistently a step or two behind in this department. And even though they've mellowed since they unceremoniosly yanked the Kaz and Ken show off the stage, they still have hubris issues that tend to be off-putting to some potential buyers (the PSPGo is a recent example.)

As I mentioned previously, I also see Apple becoming a significant threat. Although it is unlikely they will compete directly with anyone, Having a huge catalog of games (even if they are shovelware) selling for $1-5 apiece is going to set a bad precedent for your customers when you're trying to get them to spend $15-20 on downloadable games, or $50-60 on retail titles. The potential erosion of MS's core business by replacing PC sales with iPads and similar devices (which I believe is a very real threat, even as much as I can't stand Apple or its zombie horde of rabid fanatics) could also mean a lot less money to spend on console development.

[Ex-Cyber]

I see most of the differentiation in the next generation being on the software side. Already in this generation we've seen major improvements and features being added through firmware updates and downloads, and MS seems confident they can beat the competition in this department. Sony, for their part, seems to do a pretty good job of at least keeping parity, but they still seem to be consistently a step or two behind in this department.

I don't think software has really caught up with the hardware yet, either. id Tech 5 and CryEngine 3 already support the current generation, and there's not even a real timeline yet for replacing Unreal Engine 3, so it's going to be up to developers to distinguish themselves by doing something interesting with these tools.

[UnscathedFlyingObject]

Ohhh, I remember when people were saying that we wouldn't need better graphics than PS2. I think in 2-3 years we'll be seeing new consoles with beefier specs. Significant improvements could be made on game with huge worlds which often suffer from pop in, low detail, and slowdown. All other games could benefit from more power for AI, physics, and framerate (60FPS standard, yeah baby.) Maybe by then, we'll have new gimmicks with insatiable appetite for computing resources. Holographic games anyone?

[Vexorg]

When I talk about software, I'm talking more in terms of console firmware and features than in terms of game engines (which I believe will remain roughly equal across platforms for the forseeable future.)

[BryanM]

How long do you see these systems lasting?

Forever. Evil never dies.

[Lordstar]

Ohhh, I remember when people were saying that we wouldn't need better graphics than PS2. I think in 2-3 years we'll be seeing new consoles with beefier specs. Significant improvements could be made on game with huge worlds which often suffer from pop in, low detail, and slowdown. All other games could benefit from more power for AI, physics, and framerate (60FPS standard, yeah baby.) Maybe by then, we'll have new gimmicks with insatiable appetite for computing resources. Holographic games anyone?

#

Well you could see that was wrong just by looking at PC gaming. Monitors over TVs were a whole lot better during the PS2s core section of its life. Now everything seems to be slowing down in terms of graphical devlopment. There has been no really huge leaps in the way PC games looked 4 years ago as they do now. 60FPS would look fantastic though. If they make a new xbox it needs backwards compatablity from day one and it needs to be hardware based not this software emu type bullshit. I really want the 60FPS to work without all that tearing on Bioshock for the 360.

[evil_ash_xero]

Yeah, I get the feeling that the software hasn't quite caught up to the hardware yet either. That's the reason I kind of think this gen may last a bit longer. I think if they made a new system, games would probably look really similar to the way they look now, and it would probably break the bank if they looked better.

Of course, the Wii doesn't fit into this category.

[TrevHead (TVR)]

personally i think we might see the current gen staying for a while longer with S & M making money from new add ons like the move and natal. Unless theryre a total flop which they wont be well see other add ons. I dont know how successfull theyll be as we know Sega and Nec didnt do too well with their add ons. I suppose it just depends how gimmicky theyll be and if they really are "must have items" for mainstream gamers as to how successfull theyll be.

[gundamalpha]

This generation can last longer than the console themselves can last.

[louisg]

This generation can last longer than the console themselves can last.

a year?