Japan overtaken as worlds number two economy

[Skykid]

So China finally managed to leapfrog Japan and much sooner than economists predicted.

Japan, beloved to gamers, conceded their position as the worlds second largest economy yesterday settling for the number three spot.

I'm sure that Gaijinpunch will have some interesting commentary on this. Aside from his full time job as a Gigolo servicing Japanese businessmen, he's usually on the pulse with the state of the J-economy.

According to an article in the Times today, Japan had twenty years to recover from recession, but "blew it," and after having six prime ministers in five years apparently this was on the cards for a while.

Not living in Japan I don't know much about the state of things, but it's pretty disappointing to think the government couldn't get things back into shape and increase public spending. With the west going all guns blazing on game dev. I wonder if this will have an impact on the games industry over there?

It must do actually, according to the article only 30% of domestic Japanese businesses reported profits last year.

[innerpattern]

Good thing I'm studying Chinese and not Japanese Even my house was made in China.

[Ed Oscuro]

I saw this the other day. Link to Bloomberg.

How many dollaz does China have now (per year GDP?)

1.337 trillion.

Still, Japan's not doing too bad for efficiency. Will be interesting to see how this plays out - the usual forecasts are that Japan is going to gray (but China too) and lose its position faster but I'm not so sure that a large population will be the end story for economic growth by 2040.

[Skykid]

Well China's GDP growth has slowed since it peaked in 07 due to the global recession, but then it was so rapid it was bound to tail off. It's been stable since then with a forcasted rise this year. Japan had their worst year ever in 2009, dropping into crazy minus figures of -6% compared to the previous year.

The strength of the Yen must be kicking them in the balls. It's at an all time high and that has to hurt export trade.

The article is interesting though, citing Japan's "Tendency to focus so tightly on the needs of its own market that it develops products with no relevance to the outside world. America and China may be big enough to get away with that but an island nation of 127 million people with no natural resources cannot."
China also became the worlds largest autmobile exporter above Germany, Japan and America.

Another interesting point (though I'm not sure of its immediate relevance) is that out of the 1,600 Harvard undergraduate freshman this year, only one was Japanese. Sounds oddly unbalanced.

My memories of Japan are always fond, none moreso than my first visit in 2003. I was so impressed by it's tech wonderland that this passage struck a chord:

"Where once every visitor left Narita airport with a story of gadgetry and greatness then now leave with anecdotes of decay." That's a saddening thought.

Anyway, I don't know the details, but the government seems to have missed a trick somewhere along the way. A lot of this is being blamed on Japan's 'inwardness' which most people are aware of in some capacity, but moreso that they never put a proper plan of action into place to protect the economy since the major recession twenty years ago. That's a long time twiddle your thumbs.

[evil_ash_xero]

Too bad Chinese stuff sucks.

[Skykid]

Too bad Chinese stuff sucks.

Yeah:

[Ex-Cyber]

Another interesting point (though I'm not sure of its immediate relevance) is that out of the 1,600 Harvard undergraduate freshman this year, only one was Japanese. Sounds oddly unbalanced.

I'm not sure what that would even indicate, since Harvard is far from being a complete cross-section of American education (especially at the undergraduate level). For example, if you want an engineering degree there are three schools in California alone that are considered better than Harvard (Stanford, UC Berkeley, and Cal Tech), and at least as many in the eastern US.

edit: also, while the total size of China's economy may be huge, its per-capita GDP still sucks. I mean, we can't all be Norway or Luxembourg, but I'd expect a major economic power to do a lot better on that score than Turkmenistan.

[Skykid]

Another interesting point (though I'm not sure of its immediate relevance) is that out of the 1,600 Harvard undergraduate freshman this year, only one was Japanese. Sounds oddly unbalanced.

I'm not sure what that would even indicate, since Harvard is far from being a complete cross-section of American education (especially at the undergraduate level). For example, if you want an engineering degree there are three schools in California alone that are considered better than Harvard (Stanford, UC Berkeley, and Cal Tech), and at least as many in the eastern US.

I agree it's pretty non-specific trivia - I don't really see it's relevance either (as I mentioned.) Just thought it was interesting.

edit: also, while the total size of China's economy may be huge, its per-capita GDP still sucks. I mean, we can't all be Norway or Luxembourg, but I'd expect a major economic power to do a lot better on that score than Turkmenistan.

GDP per head places it behind Libya and Azerbaijan according to the world bank, so while the economy is booming out of control, the new wealth hasn't changed the fortunes of the greater population yet. But being realistic, those figures are based against populations which vary in size enormously, which kind of skews the result.
Where poverty and peasantry is vast and deep rooted and rural areas have little industry and high populations, seven years of rapid growth might seem like a miracle, but I'd think it a near impossibility for any government to change the living standards of a billion + overnight.

Anyway, let's not worry about that, I'm sure that's a discussion we've had here before.

I'm more curious about Japan's economy. Apparently Tokyo has 150 Michelin Star restaurants but the current eatery with the highest earnings is a joint that serves dinner for £3? Wtf?!

[Acid King]

I'm more curious about Japan's economy. Apparently Tokyo has 150 Michelin Star restaurants but the current eatery with the highest earnings is a joint that serves dinner for £3? Wtf?!

This just in: People enjoy cheap food.

[neorichieb1971]

Japan isn't exactly the worlds cheapest place to live or visit. Plus Japans population is quite small compared to China's, it has a lot less land as well. If you play it by the numbers, you can see that the bigger countries with resources, industry and skills are going to eventually take over. The internet has made the world smaller and new skills are quite often found in the East and not the West.

On top of that, China doesn't give a shit about regulations and therefore its going to move faster. If a new gun with special bullets came out, they would probably line up 50 china men to see how many a single bullet could kill.

Then you have to factor in that China makes a hell of a lot of things the world needs. The West does services that the rest of the world doesn't need. Add the fact that China pirates, copies and immitates just about everything we do already, well there isn't much left for us folks to offer them.

Over time you will see Japan, UK, Germany and the USA get knocked down a peg or two. As I see it, the USA has the space program which will keep it at the forefront of technology. But for everything else China can copy us in less than a year. Progress just isn't fast enough to cope.

then you have the attitude of the people in China. Who apparently spend todays money tomorrow, when everyone else is borrowing shit loads of tomorrows money today.

In 10 years time China will be in a position to hold the rest of the world to ransom. I wouldn't be surprised if they invent the worlds first production car that doesn't use fossil fuels. Since the USA has taken more than 60 years and still hasn't figured it out yet (economically speaking). What will happen when China believes to be in a position where it does not need anyone elses money?

[GaijinPunch]

I'm sure that Gaijinpunch will have some interesting commentary on this.

I actually Facebooked it when the story broke. The Japanese defense is that they have different book keeping methods (which is true) so it's indeed hard to give China the crown just yet... but it's no secret that Japan's days are very numbered. Some politicians are blaming the strong yen... but, what the fuck do you expect when you sit around and talk about weakening it and don't follow through?

Japan isn't exactly the worlds cheapest place to live or visit.

Tokyo has rarely ever not been the most expensive city in the world. Even when the yen is weak, it has always outranked London (although I'm having trouble finding charts), so before you guys keep bitching about how pricey London is, remember that the scale usually takes in average salary of locals (not fucking English teachers working half time)... and Japan's is very low compared to the high cost of living.

On that note, land outside of Kantou is almost free. It is the most lop-sided thing I've ever seen, and the fact that depopulation continually rams it in the country's ass, the countryside is what suffers (and gets even cheaper).

On top of that, China doesn't give a shit about regulations and therefore its going to move faster.

This has been changing ever since the whole lead-paint fist fuck a while back.

[Skykid]

then you have the attitude of the people in China. Who apparently spend todays money tomorrow, when everyone else is borrowing shit loads of tomorrows money today.

I like that, that's really well put.

I wouldn't be surprised if they invent the worlds first production car that doesn't use fossil fuels.

When I was in Japan last year I was getting driven about in an electric car already, so I think that step has already been made.

What will happen when China believes to be in a position where it does not need anyone elses money?

I think they're already there. They're very much the creditor rather than the debtor.

@ Gaijinpunch, re: Tokyo vs London prices, I always thought Tokyo was more reasonable when I visited - but that's based on my wage, not the average wage of someone who works in the Tokyo. All I know is when I was there in 09 my friend (and 8 yr Tokyo resident) was basically telling me everyone is living miserable existences because they're massively overworked and often seriously underpaid. I looked a little differently at things after that, but I didn't really ever twig that there were problems with the economy.
I mean it's Japan right, they make loads of shit, export tons of tech and cars - so it was a surprise to see the annual GDP stagnating (and falling) so severely in the article I read.

There was a BBC documentary that I saw not long ago about a guy who worked in a Japanese Post Office - not sure if anyone caught it. It was really interesting but really depressing too. The guy lived with his girlfriend in a shoebox - literally one room with a bed and an alcove with a kitchen unit and no windows. She was a hostess and looked like she was smoking herself to death. The guy was really cool (some kind of activist in his youth) but I felt sorry for him cos he couldn't even get it up any more as he was in such poor health. At his work they were talking about some dude who commited suicide on his lunch break like it was a regular thing there.
Post office workers in the UK get paid fuck all, but this was pretty sobering stuff.

What's for sure is that the Japanese make tons of products for Japan only, and I think that's one of the reasons it's so cool to visit as a gaijin, because even commercially it's very cultural. But I didn't really think about the long term impact of producing tons of domestic goods as opposed to export. I guess this 'inwardness' is a national characteristic on many levels.

I'm going to do my part and keep purchasing domestic products via import.

[sven666]

Tokyo has rarely ever not been the most expensive city in the world. Even when the yen is weak, it has always outranked London (although I'm having trouble finding charts), so before you guys keep bitching about how pricey London is, remember that the scale usually takes in average salary of locals (not fucking English teachers working half time)... and Japan's is very low compared to the high cost of living.

i always found this strange, as a tourist tokyo can be very cheap and last time i was over i was checking out alot of appartments and stuff and renting a small appartment still fairly central didnt seem that expensive to me, its about on par with the appartments here in gothenburg.

its been a few years since i went to London but i always thought it was a rather expensive city..

maybe the difference is in the wages? what does an average joe schmoe driving a forklift at some warehouse earn in japan?

[Skykid]

Tokyo has rarely ever not been the most expensive city in the world. Even when the yen is weak, it has always outranked London (although I'm having trouble finding charts), so before you guys keep bitching about how pricey London is, remember that the scale usually takes in average salary of locals (not fucking English teachers working half time)... and Japan's is very low compared to the high cost of living.

i always found this strange, as a tourist tokyo can be very cheap and last time i was over i was checking out alot of appartments and stuff and renting a small appartment still fairly central didnt seem that expensive to me, its about on par with the appartments here in gothenburg.

its been a few years since i went to London but i always thought it was a rather expensive city..

maybe the difference is in the wages? what does an average joe schmoe driving a forklift at some warehouse earn in japan?

Yeah, I'm curious about average low paid workers earnings too. What do you get if you work in McDonalds or something?

In the UK it's minimum wage which is £5.80 afaik.

[sven666]

sweden doesnt have a minimum wage limit like that, but an average worker earns about 17-18000SEK/month which translates to roughly 13000SEK after taxes (13000SEK ~$1800).

if you want to rent a small 2 room appartment in central gothenburg youre looking at atleast 7000SEK/month (~$1000).

when i was in japan i saw appartments for rent in fairly central parts of tokyo go for between 1-2M JPY/year.
1M JPY = 80000SEK = 6666SEK/month...

[Skykid]

Hmm, I think there are other considerations with JP renting though, such as footing deposits that don't get returned and other taxes. Not sure.

Doesn't Hong Kong have the worlds most expensive real estate now?

$1800 is actually great for an average worker though. If people in the UK earned that they'd be a lot better off, alas, minimum wage earners take home a lot less.

[Jonathan Ingram]

In 10 years time China will be in a position to hold the rest of the world to ransom.

It won`t. China is still just a peripheral capitalist country, big GDP or not. Its role in the system lies in providing cheap labor for exploitation by primary capitalist countries. Its main advantage is a billion of people willing to work for food. Should the capitalist system collapse, the consequences for China will be huge as the demand for the consumer goods they produce will hit the floor. Hopefully, by the time it happens the country will no longer be headed by neoliberal cronies.

[sven666]

$1800 is actually great for an average worker though. If people in the UK earned that they'd be a lot better off, alas, minimum wage earners take home a lot less.

there are two sides to it, we also have legalised slave labour (aka guest workers) from asia and the poorer EU countries, they do shit work for absolute pennies and are treated worse than animals

[Skykid]

$1800 is actually great for an average worker though. If people in the UK earned that they'd be a lot better off, alas, minimum wage earners take home a lot less.

there are two sides to it, we also have legalised slave labour (aka guest workers) from asia and the poorer EU countries, they do shit work for absolute pennies and are treated worse than animals

We're all slaves under capitalism as far as I'm concerned.

[sven666]

We're all slaves under capitalism as far as I'm concerned.

fo shizzle ya'll

[neorichieb1971]

In 10 years time China will be in a position to hold the rest of the world to ransom.

It won`t. China is still just a peripheral capitalist country, big GDP or not. Its role in the system lies in providing cheap labor for exploitation by primary capitalist countries. Its main advantage is a billion of people willing to work for food. Should the capitalist system collapse, the consequences for China will be huge as the demand for the consumer goods they produce will hit the floor. Hopefully, by the time it happens the country will no longer be headed by neoliberal cronies.

If they keep making money at this rate, perhaps they will only need money to sell. China does not rely on industry to survive, it relies on its own low standards.

[neorichieb1971]

Oh skykid. An Electric car isn't necessarily fossil fuel free, the electric has to come from somewhere. Sometimes some of it from fossil fuels. Its pretty hard to make a car fossil fuel FREE.

[Skykid]

Oh skykid. An Electric car isn't necessarily fossil fuel free, the electric has to come from somewhere. Sometimes some of it from fossil fuels. Its pretty hard to make a car fossil fuel FREE.

Cool, sorry I didn't think about that.

If they keep making money at this rate, perhaps they will only need money to sell. China does not rely on industry to survive, it relies on its own low standards.

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding this, but, contrary to what western hyperbole would have you believe ("buy American!") low standards of Chinese products (if this is what you mean?) is relative to the quality control and finance injected by the controlling company. For instance, if you buy an ipod dock or a foot spa in the pound shop, it's probably going to be shit. If you buy a Nintendo DS, it will last you as good as anything of a Japanese standard because Nintendo control quality - but both are made in China.

The rest is propagandaz.

[brentsg]

Not sure if I'm misunderstanding this, but, contrary to what western hyperbole would have you believe ("buy American!") low standards of Chinese products (if this is what you mean?) is relative to the quality control and finance injected by the controlling company. For instance, if you buy an ipod dock or a foot spa in the pound shop, it's probably going to be shit. If you buy a Nintendo DS, it will last you as good as anything of a Japanese standard because Nintendo control quality - but both are made in China.

The rest is propagandaz.

China manufactured Dreamcasts beg to differ.

[Skykid]

China manufactured Dreamcasts beg to differ.

Lol, they were pretty shit, although mine's still ticking.

[TaygetaVendetta]

On that note, land outside of Kantou is almost free. It is the most lop-sided thing I've ever seen, and the fact that depopulation continually rams it in the country's ass, the countryside is what suffers (and gets even cheaper).

Any areas specifically, and generally how removed/rural is this "countryside" land?

[Skykid]

Any areas specifically, and generally how removed/rural is this "countryside" land?

You looking to buy?

[TaygetaVendetta]

Any areas specifically, and generally how removed/rural is this "countryside" land?

You looking to buy?

Depends on price per acre and again how far removed it is from current development. Interested in general, though.

[Davey]

Oh skykid. An Electric car isn't necessarily fossil fuel free, the electric has to come from somewhere. Sometimes some of it from fossil fuels. Its pretty hard to make a car fossil fuel FREE.

Cool, sorry I didn't think about that.

But, power plants are much more efficient at turning fossil fuels into energy than your car's engine. Overall, EVs create less pollution.

[Octopod]

$1800 is actually great for an average worker though. If people in the UK earned that they'd be a lot better off, alas, minimum wage earners take home a lot less.

there are two sides to it, we also have legalised slave labour (aka guest workers) from asia and the poorer EU countries, they do shit work for absolute pennies and are treated worse than animals

We're all slaves under capitalism as far as I'm concerned.

Yes.



The minimum wage here in the US is now $7.25. Just a couple of years ago it was $5.25. Of course states can set their own minimum wage higher than the federal but not lower. Last time I was living in Texas it was $5.25, the keep it at the minimum possible there. Here is Massachusetts I believe it is over $8.00. Still nowhere near $1800.00 a month.