Carmack talks NEXT-gen consoles - PS4 before Xbox3 ?

[gigadrive32]

Carmack talks next gen consoles... and beyond

August 10th, 2009

John Carmack has talked at length about what he expects from the next generation of consoles, planning to create brand new tech that allows his company to create cross-generational games that span Xbox 360/PS3 along with whatever their successors may be. The id software technical director also believes that console-makers are in danger of slamming into a power wall that may be impossible to engineer around, with the platform holders perhaps looking to cloud computing to continue the console arms race.

Carmack's comments are found within a collection of three videos posted a week ago by Polish site CD-Action, in which the idTech mastermind talks without respite about the engine behind new game Rage along with other hardcore topics, armed only with a comedically branded soft drink. Watch him go: it's absolutely remarkable. According to CD-Action, the interview was recorded around a month ago.

"I have a good sense of where technology is going but larger things about what businesses choose to do and big businesses like Microsoft and Sony... those are decisions above my pay grade and not really in my line of business, or what I think about a lot," Carmack says. "I think that Xbox Live... the advent of that and the App Store with the iPhone are wonderful signs of the future of digital distribution. I think there's a decent chance that one of the next gen consoles will be without optical media... the uptake rates of people who have broadband connects surprised everyone this generation. It's higher than what the core publishers and even the first party people expected."

Carmack goes on to talk about how he believes that one or the other of the major HD console-makers will jump the gun with the leap to the next generation (hinting that it will be Sony), but in common with many other developers believes that their best interests are served by prolonging the lifespan of the current consoles.

"The whole jockeying for who's going to release the first next gen console is very interesting and pretty divorced from the technical side of things," he says. "Whether Sony wants to jump the gun to prevent the same sort of 360 lag from happening to them again seems likely. As developers, we would really like to see this generation stretch as long as possible. We'd like to see it be quite a few more years before the next gen console comes out, but I suspect one will end up shipping something earlier rather than later."

The general roadmap for the next gen architectures has already been laid down though, and the future appears to be all about variations of Intel's Larrabee proposition, where many tiny, fully programmable cores combine to form one powerful chip that may well work as both CPU and GPU.

"We do have a very good sense of where the technology is going because we talk to NVIDIA, we talk to Intel, we talk to ATI/AMD and they're all pursuing variations on massive multi-core processor integration," Carmack says, "There's lots of interesting things about that, about how we need to think about things on the game development side to take advantage of that."

Real-time ray-tracing has often been seen as the holy grail of graphics rendering and simply unobtainable with the levels of technology we have available, but it may well find a place within the next gen consoles.

"The big question is, are we going to be able to do a ray-casting primitive for a lot of things?" he ponders. "Certainly we'll still be doing a lot of conventional stuff like animated characters and things like that very likely will be drawn not incredibly differently from how they're drawn now. Hopefully we'll be able to use some form of sparse voxel octree representation cast stuff for some of the things in the world that are gonna be rigid-bodied... maybe we'll have deformations on things like that. But that's a research project I'm excited to get back to in the relatively near future. We can prototype that stuff now on current hardware and if we're thinking that... this type of thing will be ten times faster on the hardware that ends up shipping, we'll be able to learn a lot from that."

However, while he predicts that the leaps in cutting edge console technology are set to continue (certainly there is no hint from him that Microsoft or Sony will follow a Wii-style strategy of simply adding minor or incremental upgrades to their existing hardware), we are swiftly reaching the point where platform holders will be unable to win their battles against the laws of physics.

"We talk about these absurd things like how many teraflops of processing and memory that are going into our game machines," Carmack says, speculating off-hand that the next gen consoles will have at least 2GB of internal RAM. "It's great and there's going to be at least another generation like that, although interestingly we are coasting towards some fundamental physical limits on things. We've already hit the megahertz wall and eventually there's going to be a power density wall from which you won't get more processing out there..."

That being the case, he speculates that the game-makers could move into different directions to provide new game experiences and at that point, the almost mythical cloud computing concept could make an impact.

"There'll be questions of whether we shift to a cloud computing infrastructure... lots of interesting questions about whether you have the computing power in your living room versus somewhere else," he says, noting that while latency is a fundamental issue, the sheer scope of storage available online opens up intriguing possibilities. "Certainly the easier aspect of that is 'net as storage' where it's all digital distribution and you could wind up doing an idTech 5-like thing... and blow it up to World of Warcraft size so you need a hundred petabytes of storage in your central game system. We can do that now! It's not an absurd thing to talk about. Games are already in the tens of millions of dollars in terms of budget size and that's probably going to continue to climb there. The idea of putting millions of dollars into higher-sized storage... it's not unreasonable to at least consider."

Returning to the concept of the next generation console, John Carmack is already planning to take advantage of the new hardware and is planning to have systems in place to ensure that a sneaky pre-emptive launch from one of the platform holders won't catch id software by surprise.

"What I'm planning to do is set up a new rendering engine that co-exists with the current one... and I intend to develop it like that, so you have an idTech 5 version and then have everything working the same [with] an alternate data set that you can render with a different version," he revealed. "So the hope would be that if we do get some flashy new graphics hardware on there that we would possibly have the option of releasing a game cross-generational like that. Same game, same design across everything but different media set, different rendering engine... That also allows me to work on something without having to involve the entire team. That's something where we can take a couple of people, go out, work on prototyping proof of concepts while the rest of the company is building the production titles."

http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/digit ... blog-entry

[UnscathedFlyingObject]

And the Wii is totally out of the picture because Nintendo will be using current tech with their next console.

[neorichieb1971]

Carmack hates the PS3 I think. He and his team keep banging on about how the PS3 struggles to do his kind of tech, yet games like Uncharted 2 show even more inspiration and technical promise than just about anything out there right now. His words sound carefully chosen. Personally I believe there is little more that graphics can add to an FPS.

Maybe i'm talking BS, but thats how I see it. I don't even know why he is bringing up PS4, its only 2009, not 2015.

[agustusx]

well carmack has been quoted saying something like "the same game with better graphics is a better game". Of course all hes going to talk is tech, he's a programmer. To my knowledge he's never been a designer... And he's always stayed on the cutting edge. We all have to survive 2012 before 2015 gets here. Wasn't he retiring 5 or so years ago? Or is that rage game his last project?

[nikkos010]

well carmack has been quoted saying something like "the same game with better graphics is a better game". Of course all hes going to talk is tech, he's a programmer. To my knowledge he's never been a designer... And he's always stayed on the cutting edge. We all have to survive 2012 before 2015 gets here. Wasn't he retiring 5 or so years ago? Or is that rage game his last project?

Well, he's the lead engineer for Armadillo Aerospace as well. So he's not working on games full-time anymore.


After 15 years, I don't play FPS anymore. I think the concept has been pretty well explored. I think there is still alot of room for 3rd person games, as there is just so much more you can do with charachter-level interaction. Along with that I think they should go back to 2-D (and 2.5D) and explore that medium a bit more, as Sony basically forced developers out of the genre in favor of 3-D games.

Imagine a Castlevania developed like SFIV, adding that extra depth along with the quality of the artwork would make a godlike sequel to SOTN..

[TLB]

That certainly would be tasty.

[agustusx]

The next gen systems (of 2015) will be the first in a decade or more that I do not buy at launch. Unless something really interesting happens:)

I currently don't on a wii, but my first wii game will be Muramasa: The demon blade.

Anyone remember Astal? 15 years or so ago i remember a friend asking me "So why doesn't Sega make more 2d games like this?" Lets hope we can still get a few classics out before VR Version2 comes out

But yeah, a castlevania game done like SFIV would be nice. If anyone remembers Ecco for the DC, it had a few levels that used 3D art, but played like the traditional 2D game. That was pretty sweet albeit only 2 or three levels were like that.

[Ed Oscuro]

I agree that the same game with better graphics = a better game, but give me a better DESIGNED game first.

FPSes were stagnating in the collect-a-thon find the secrets mold after Wolfenstein 3D for too long; now they're stagnating in the military shooters mold. There's a lot more that can be done. It's primarily just a way of viewing the world, and the "shooters" part doesn't mean you can't do certain things (look at The Wheel of Time for instance).

[neorichieb1971]

Well, the FPS has stagnated your right there. But there is still parameters present which stops them moving on.

1) The audience want war games

The 360 is proof that the current generation are happy lapping up more and more war content. I'm sure the PC fraternity are just the same. If you made a wizard FPS, it would sell about 1/4 of the volume of games, even though it pretty much plays exactly the same way.

2) PC enthusiasts use the medium as a sort of bench mark for their upgrading mentality.

[gameoverDude]

Imagine a Castlevania developed like SFIV, adding that extra depth along with the quality of the artwork would make a godlike sequel to SOTN..

Agreed. This sounds almost as good as Strider 3 with the gameplay of Strider 2 and SFIV graphics, or a new Adventures of Little Ralph with same visual treatment.

I think the war theme is almost getting a tad trite for FPS games. I'd rather see another F.E.A.R. sequel as well as a Heretic 3 (though it's a good question where that one would go, since Heretic 2 is a 3rd person game and not a FPS like the prequel). If there's a Heretic 3, letting the player switch between FPS and 3rd person modes (for H2H combat) would be a great idea.

[Ed Oscuro]

Imagine a Castlevania developed like SFIV, adding that extra depth along with the quality of the artwork would make a godlike sequel to SOTN..

SotN is dead, bring back real gameplay

I'd rather see another F.E.A.R. sequel as well as a Heretic 3 (though it's a good question where that one would go, since Heretic 2 is a 3rd person game and not a FPS like the prequel). If there's a Heretic 3, letting the player switch between FPS and 3rd person modes (for H2H combat) would be a great idea.

Well, FEAR 2 only came out this year, and Raven really dropped the ball on Heretic II's ending which makes it rather apparent that there's nothing else to do in Parthoris (LOL @ dude flying away going "oh shitttt I will try to make amends")

[nikkos010]

Imagine a Castlevania developed like SFIV, adding that extra depth along with the quality of the artwork would make a godlike sequel to SOTN..

SotN is dead, bring back real gameplay

That is so sad I'm left speechless.

[UnscathedFlyingObject]

I wouldn't go as far as SotN is the sux but it has its problems. Gameplay is unbalanced. If you equip properly, it's a cakewalk. If you take off the armor so you take less hits to die, enemies in the inverted castle will rape you in two hits and some of them take more damage than bosses. Let's not even get into artificially lengthening the game by making levels upside down. There's many new enemies in the second castle, but it's just plain sloppy and lazy level design.

[gameoverDude]

Imagine a Castlevania developed like SFIV, adding that extra depth along with the quality of the artwork would make a godlike sequel to SOTN..

SotN is dead, bring back real gameplay

While I would prefer Dracula X3 (or Dracula XXX?), an SOTN 2 wouldn't be bad as long as we got both titles. Having three Castlevania series sounds nice IMO- while the upcoming 3D Castlevania doesn't seem too bad on its own, it's no substitute for a real DX3.

Monolith could do some interesting things with a FEAR 3 story whenever that comes to be (next year I hope). Whatever became of the Point Man & his allies from the first one, if the events of Extraction Point didn't really happen? You don't hear/see a thing about these guys in FEAR 2 outside of seeing the Origin Facility go boom. They should bring PM back in FEAR 3 to lend some closure, even if he's not the player character.

I'm interested in that new FEAR 2 DLC, in which you play as a Replica soldier going rogue. There is a bit of reference to Fettel in the trailer.

[Ed Oscuro]

Well, EEGUH (Igarashi) seems to have been kicked to the curb, so hopefully the real CV is going to get a chance again...even if as 3D. No difference to me actually, since everything is going 3D and 2D was just becoming layer upon layer of baroque grinding nonsense gameplay mechanics.

[neorichieb1971]

Lord of Shadow got the CV name at last years E3.

http://uk.media.xbox360.ign.com/media/1 ... mgs_1.html

[BIL]

Having three Castlevania series sounds nice IMO- while the upcoming 3D Castlevania doesn't seem too bad on its own, it's no substitute for a real DX3.

Was playing Rondo just now, and I couldn't agree more. I wish the series had split into "Castlevania / Akumajo Dracula" and "Dracula X" right from that point. That game showcases the best features of both sides, and it's a shame we couldn't have had more of each as CV became more prolific.

Can't say I'm too bothered about the full 3D releases. I've enjoyed 64/LOD, COD and LOI, but none as Castlevania games. Just generally entertaining 3D action titles with excellent CV music and atmosphere. Consoles have no shortage of good games in the 3D slasher genre, but a decided lack of Castlevania (either type).

[ZOM]

...I wish the series had split into "Castlevania / Akumajo Dracula" and "Dracula X" right from that point. That game showcases the best features of both sides, and it's a shame we couldn't have had more of each as CV became more prolific.

Sounds good enough to me, even if I'm a fan of "baroque grinding nonsense gameplay mechanics".
However, what I do not like is where the series is going after that previous announcement - I know, "reserve judgment until the game is released" but I'm afraid about a little detail here: Kojima + outsourcing + next-gen CV = sounds like high production costs and what have we learned this gen? Developers deliver victory on a silver platter to appeal to a broader audience. I wouldn't be surprised if clearing every major area in Lord of Shadow fully heals the hero and if you fall to your death you'll get warped to the point before you fell with a minimal HP penalty. I just hope that my predictions turn out to be false. /elitist speech