Prelude to the Apocalypse

[BIL]

Well, had Bidens administration not done everything in its power to reduce US energy independence and promote the idea that the domestic oil and gas industry is "the boogeyman", we could have sanctioned the purchasing of Russian oil and gas, which would have hurt them A LOT. As it is, we were sitting on $80 oil prior to this crisis and literally are at the mercy of OPEC and Russia when it comes to oil and gas. Because of this, we literally cant afford to sanction Russian oil and gas without risking our own economic collapse.

What we really need to do is wean ourselves off oil completely. Not only is it harmful to the atmosphere, but awful for the environment, and will eventually run out anyway. If it weren't for decades of "sickening incompetence" by the Republicans to prolong this failed oil policy, we wouldn't need to straddle the line between potential natural disasters and buying oil from tyrannical governments.

Shoulda used 9/11 as casus belli to PWN Saudi Arabia tbh.

[orange808]

The world's appetite for energy doesn't allow for energy independence or zero oil. Russia's position isn't an oil thing, anyway. Europe needs their natural gas to stay warm. That's the problem. There's no alternative available and disruptions would cause deaths and price problems.

What good would limited domestic independence do, anyway? Other people need the natural gas. Even if the world shuffles the energy deck, Russia will still have customers. The world wants and needs the resource. Rearrange the chairs all you like, we won't have more seats. There aren't enough untapped resources in the US to meet the demand.

Also, there's a certain schadenfreude to be had here: watching you play video games and complain about energy use. Turn off everything and read a book from the library. Set the temperature to 62 in your home. That's plenty warm enough. Move into a smaller home. Plan all your trips as group outings and carpooling. Hit the shoppes with friends. Stop going out at night. That uses energy. Turn off all the lights but one. Yes, make everything shitty. Will you? No.

Wait? Sacrifice? No. Not you. You were talking about Biden and his magic wand of "fix it"--while you don't do jack shit, right? "Biden can fix it without sacrifice", you say. It's bullshit, but you say it. Because, you either don't know or don't care about what's true.

There's no options. That's why this happened. Let it shake out. The only option is the long game.

[Mischief Maker]

Shoulda used 9/11 as casus belli to decapitate Saudi Arabia tbh.

Yeah, that was gonna happen:

Spoiler

Bandar bin Sultan Al Saud, aka. "Bandar Bush"

Well, had Bidens administration not done everything in its power to reduce US energy independence and promote the idea that the domestic oil and gas industry is "the boogeyman", we could have sanctioned the purchasing of Russian oil and gas, which would have hurt them A LOT. As it is, we were sitting on $80 oil prior to this crisis and literally are at the mercy of OPEC and Russia when it comes to oil and gas. Because of this, we literally cant afford to sanction Russian oil and gas without risking our own economic collapse.

I think Russia's hurting pretty bad already:


(MOEX index)

And it's not like Putin didn't see the risk coming because they shut down the exchange the morning of the attack to stop an even bigger freefall.

As of November 2021, Russia represented just 7% of US oil imports.

Its sickening incompetance on the part of our presidential administration. Instead of pursuing the interests of national security, we allow shit like this to be recorded in the halls of power and aired to the public. Embarassing shit involving the White House press secretary's full cooperation.

More embarrassing shit. Im just going to stop looking. This is downright shameful.

Spoiler

WELCOME TO BURGERVILLE!

Edit: Squished some giant pictures inside spoiler tags.

[BIL]

Set the temperature to 62 in your home.

Bitch my heating's been out since this post, chilling at a nice 6'c, DGAF. (ancient mid-90s boiler PCB burnt out, ridicurous price to replace, going home in a couple months, whatever )

All the shit you mention sounds lovely 3; It'll never happen. See also:

Yeah, that was gonna happen:

I was gonna add a rainbow-gradient "PFFFT YE RITE LMAO!" but that gigantic PNG makes the point inescapable!

Look, got it ready to go and everything! :O

Spoiler

PFFFT YE RITE LMAO!

[GaijinPunch]

More embarrassing shit. Im just going to stop looking. This is downright shameful.

You shoulda seen the last guy.

[Mischief Maker]

More embarrassing shit. Im just going to stop looking. This is downright shameful.

You shoulda seen the last guy.

One minute they're losing their shit because the Green M&M mascot's new footware wasn't sexy enough, the next minute they're throwing a fit over an actual human staffer wearing sexy sparkly heels.

These people are impossible to please.

Here's a picture of Jordan Peterson's daughter in lobster-themed lingerie, complete with eye-stalks coming out her scalp (mildly NWS):

Spoiler

[Ed Oscuro]

tl;dr: Gas is central to Putin's Russia and lowering production anywhere will raise the price by roughly the same percentage as the amount of production lost.

Part of Putin's aims may be to hedge the Russian economy against the end of oil, which appears to be coming quicker in Europe than in the US (~half of French personal vehicle sales were EVs last year; here in America, fewer people are buying EVs). In 2009 he started a controversy with Ukraine using the price of gas as leverage.

When it comes to Russia and the price of oil and gas, remember that these deliveries are fungible. That means that they can be delivered and used anywhere. Russia probably can't launder all its gas through friendly countries, but on the other hand nobody will know if, say, a gas delivery actually was of Russian origin. The key elements are whether disruptions to gas deliveries make the distribution network less efficient or reduce output, both of which will bring the price up everywhere. Of course, other oil producing countries in OPEC may or may not decide to ramp up production.

But basically yeah, we need to get off our butts to end oil and gas dependence as much as possible, and we have needed to do this for a long while although not explicitly to punish Putin. He's just now made it necessary to find some leverage against him (and frankly I have known this was coming since '09 but hey not everybody follows da news).

[BryanM]

One of the things that annoys me is when people think of our countries as independent islands unto themselves. What kind of cuck capitalist would settle for only owning one country? smh

The vast majority of US oil comes from the Americas. Oil pipelines are more efficient than using a big stupid boat. Our middle east obsession isn't for the USA's benefit (outside of defense contractors), it's mainly for Europe's benefit. There really should be an official name for this empire since it's controlled by the same bodies and people and it's such an important concept - that it isn't named (the NATO treaty is as close as it comes to doing that) is very intentional. If we use recognition of Palestine as a country that exists, I guess we'd call ourselves the Grey Zone.
___

Our country has some terrible ideas when it comes to commodifying hardware - as you all know, the space shuttle was a massive downgrade by every single metric from the space ships we used to have. The F-22 and F-35 are also colossal fuckups from a basic conceptual level, if you care for anything else than them costing a lot of money and intentionally losing us wars. It's easy to goof on NFTs, but this stuff is probably way worse.

A lot of war games against hypothetical enemies have resulted in very poor outcomes for the US team - this isn't droning weddings or the funerals of people we've droned once already. It'd be an actual war for once, and having thirty aircraft carriers only does so much to make up for not having ground control.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

Wait? Sacrifice? No. Not you. You were talking about Biden and his magic wand of "fix it"--while you don't do jack shit, right?

The other problem is that as far as pollution and global warming emissions are concerned, commercial industry is often a far bigger contributor. The average person doing small changes like taking public transit or turning off lights is a drop in the ocean compared to the energy use from industry. Multiple major polluters have often tried to distract the public by promoting fluff like "here's ways you can save the environment!" while they continue to act as the primary source of the problem. Oil companies for instance knew about their contribution to global warming and buried the data so they could safely continue getting rich, without regard for future generations.

For real material change to occur, we as a society have to have much more radical change implemented such as potentially doing away with cars (except for stuff like emergency healthcare, transportation, etc). Stuff like electric vehicles are essentially a distraction by the car industry to keep making more cash while selling consumers on this feel good idea that they're helping. Sure, they're not burning fuel, but the batteries that go into those things use rare elements that simply would not be available at a large scale. Car companies and figures like Elon Musk are essentially a distraction to public transit infrastructure efforts because they can get rich off selling cars.

We also aren't in the habit of building energy efficient homes. Insulation is often poor, even in new homes, and little thought goes into heating and cooling of homes with minimal use of electricity. I've often wondered if building underground more would be viable but it's more complex due to additional digging costs, the need to make the home secure against flooding, and the fact that society simply isn't sold on the aesthetic of mostly underground homes.

There also hasn't been much of a push at a government level to change our society's habits with respect to energy use because the major politicians hamstringing efforts to develop and use more renewable energy often get huge sums of cash from major oil and gas producing companies, thus they have a direct motivation to undermine reform efforts. After all, who cares if the planet gets fucked up for future generations so long as they're rich while they're alive and in power? Conservative Christians in particular don't seem to give a shit about the environment as they believe Heaven awaits them, so who cares about materialistic things like keeping the planet in decent shape?

As the pandemic has shown us, there's a large group of irresponsible people in society who will scream about relatively minor inconveniences such as getting vaxxinated or wearing a mask to protect against a lethal disease. Unwilling to take basic preventative steps that would stop that disease, they'll also protest the measures that sane people put into place to limit their chance of exposure by irresponsible people. They sure as hell are not prepared to accept our societies are in need of considerable systemic changes if we're to keep the planet habitable for us as a species. At this point I honestly doubt we'll even attempt to cooperate and do anything meaningful on a global scale until we're past the point of no return and it's too late.

[Josh128]

Its a massive stereotype / discrimination to say conservative Christians dont give a shit about the environment. There are PLENTY of atheists, pagans, and agnostics who dont give a shit as well. The problem is the super-biased media paints this BS picture and people believe it. Its not that conservative Christians dont care about the environment, not at all. The issue is that extremists on the far left and far right are too ignorant to reach an intelligent and meaninful compromise.

Trump Admin: Drill baby drill, pull out of Paris Accord, etc.

Biden Admin: Stop ALL new oil and gas drilling and production on US mainland and controlled waters, paint oil and gas producers as the "boogeyman". If you dont drive an electric vehicle, you should be ashamed.


Both are extremist views. Period. These types of things TAKE TIME. Treating oil and gas producers like red-headed stepchildren has caused them to MASSIVELY underinvest and we are now paying the price for that. Doing what we can to protect the environment and curb climate change is important, but ITS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN in 4 years time, and acting like it will or even can is just flat out wrong /disingenuous.

The rise of political fundamentalism/extremism is the real problem with Western society at this point. Its too polarized and neither side wants to actually compromise on anything.

[orange808]

If you dont drive an electric vehicle, you should be ashamed.

Yeah. Doesn't actually matter what you drive. The energy still has to come from somewhere. We agree there. The energy appetite is there--and it's always going to be there.

In many instances, powering electric cars means burning coal, folks. That isn't clean.

Have to mine the rare earth elements for the electronics and batteries, too. That's messy business. Not good for the environment and there aren't a lot of domestic resources. So much for independence. The batteries are also toxic waste when you're done with them.

The answer is to stop driving. Also, need to find more efficient ways to communicate and do less of it. Can't just turn on a ton of devices at home (and on the network). The answer is simple: just sit and stare at the wall! No flying, either. People that take holidays hate the planet, right?

Reality is a real bitch, ain't it? My brain hurts. Let's go back to superficial land! Just blame the president. It's easier!

Check your clothes and shoes. Oil? Probably. The other option, you robbed an innocent animal to make the clothes. Shame on you. Using oil or robbing animals. For shame.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

Its a massive stereotype / discrimination to say conservative Christians dont give a shit about the environment.

The major party in power in American politics that actively gets bankrolled by the oil industry also happens to be the one that panders to its fundamentalist Christian base for votes, and cares nothing about right-wing extremists in its midst. Whether or not you want to claim they're not "true Christians" doesn't change the fact that they're claiming to do god's work and actively pandering to a hardcore Christian base when they're actively campaigning to roll back environmental protections or deny women reproductive rights and healthcare.

It's not to say there's no Christians who care about the environment, but from a political standpoint they are, unfortunately, currently a minority with zero influence.

The issue is that extremists on the far left and far right are too ignorant to reach an intelligent and meaninful compromise.

There is no such thing as meaningful compromise when one side is literally insane. The constant need to present both sides as equally valid and pander to the idea of "compromise" when the far right currently represents the interests of "very fine" neo-Nazis who fantasize about overthrowing a democratically elected government and getting away with it when their incompetence prevents it from succeeding.

If you dont drive an electric vehicle, you should be ashamed.

Both are extremist views. Period.

Nobody sensible has ever said this about electric vehicles, so you're essentially propping up a strawman here. Progressive people worried about the environment are well aware that using electric vehicles on the scale of gas vehicles is literally impossible due to lack of materials, let alone infrastructure, and that it's a distraction by car companies to continue getting cash instead of us focusing on high quality, high speed mass public transit in areas where it'd be super effective.

Biden is deeply flawed as a representative (America really dropped the fucking ball when they could have had Bernie Sanders instead of Trump and Biden), but you don't need to make shit up and lie about what he's said in order to find reason to criticize him.

These types of things TAKE TIME. Treating oil and gas producers like red-headed stepchildren has caused them to MASSIVELY underinvest and we are now paying the price for that

They are never going to invest in something that hurts their bottom line no matter how essential it is for the survival of the planet. That's how cutthroat capitalism works and why it's so dysfunctional. It's the same reason American for-profit healthcare companies still operate as such despite it very clearly being utter lunacy to make your country's healthcare system a for-profit industry.

The only way to make real change is to hold them accountable and reform the laws to enact those changes, and that won't happen until the people in government consist of people who actually give a shit about doing so.

[Ed Oscuro]

Oil and gas interests have captured a veto in the American legislature. It's down to individual legislators; every seat is precious. Almost every Senate Dem was ready to kick oil and gas to the curb, but as long as we have coal baron Joe Manchin holding his veto, it doesn't matter whether it's Biden or Bernie in the Presidency when it comes to diversifying away from oil and gas. Incidentally, it's also time to reconsider nuclear power.

As far as pipelines versus ships goes, BryanM, the markets don't really care. Inefficiency just translates to a higher price at the pump. We have idiots like Governor Kristi Noem saying we need to drill more to end American energy dependence, but it doesn't work that way. As long as the US economy relies on oil and gas, which can be traded worldwide, the American economy is subject to price shocks from what any major producer does - and Russia is #2 for oil and gas right behind Saudi Arabia. Also... https://www.reuters.com/business/energy ... 022-02-25/

They are never going to invest in something that hurts their bottom line no matter how essential it is for the survival of the planet. That's how cutthroat capitalism works and why it's so dysfunctional.

I'm mostly inclined to agree but your "they" are politicians. Cutthroat capital, even traditional oil and gas businesses, have been diversifying their offerings away from oil and gas in anticipation of new markets. It's really a shadowy network of billionaires like Koch Bro. and Ghost Bro, the Russian disinfo machine, and random billionaires that seem unwilling to do the sensible thing and start diversifying their portfolios.

[Josh128]

BareKnuckleRoo, I see.

If you believe its OK for your government to demonize the character of and attempt to violate the freedom and civil liberties of an individual by trying to force them to inject an emergency use-only vaccine in their body that has been proven to not prevent or even curb the spread of infection, while at the same time think its fine for someone representing our country to dress like a drag queen straight out of CyberPunk 2077 while attending high level meetings with foreign counterparts, you are part of the problem.

You call the far right neo-nazis while omitting to call the far left communists.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

that has been proven to not prevent or even curb the spread of infection

Sorry, do you come from an alternate universe where rubella, measles, and polio are still a thing? Or are you just pretending those magically stopped being a widespread problem in North America with no human intervention whatsoever?

The vaccines have absolutely been shown to minimize the severity of the disease, so I'd suggest you ignore whoever is feeding you your "information" because it's frankly bullshit.

You call the far right neo-nazis while omitting to call the far left communists.

Communism is a very specific movement. Not everyone who professes to be far left is necessarily communist. There's plenty who want nordic model socialist capitalism to become the norm. There's also plenty of stupid people on the far left, but the degree and frequency of stupidity simply isn't on the scale with the right wing in America currently. Case in point, people who identify as conservatives or right wing are overwhelmingly the ones promoting the antivaxxine messaging you're spouting which has no basis in science or reality. The con artist turned twice-impeached, former president who repeatedly downplayed the severity of COVID-19 as being merely "the flu" and who actively worked to undermine the messaging of actually qualified healthcare professionals is directly responsible for countless deaths.

I suggest you work on your reading. I said "the far right currently represents the interests of "very fine" neo-Nazis" which was a clear reference to how the twice-impeached former Republican president literally said neo-Nazis were "very fine people" in reference to a group of actual neo-Nazis who attended a white supremacist rally, where one of them attempted to commit mass murder by driving his vehicle through a crowd of people, fortunately only killing one person.

Trump's pandering to his base by expressing his fondness of Nazism did not result in his immediate impeachment and ousting from public office, as it would in any sane country that wasn't in the grip of a cult movement that refuses to hold itself accountable for anything, so I think that it's pretty accurate to say the right wing in America is perfectly happy to receive the support of and therefore support the interests of actual Nazis.

[bkk]

Sorry, do you come from an alternate universe

the twice-impeached former Republican president literally said neo-Nazis were "very fine people"

Heh.

[system11]

Re: energy use. Removing cars entirely would still just be kicking the can down the road. There's a fundamental problem that got about twice as bad since I was born, I've never seen a convincing argument otherwise that wasn't trivially easy to undermine with common sense in about 30 seconds.

Anyway. I'm wondering given the last week or so of events, with Putin the warmonger deciding that simply poisoning people and getting away with annexing Crimea was insufficient, should the thread just be called "The Apocalypse" yet? Never mind - I'm sure Joe will save us.

Interesting video:

https://t.co/ynRFpPaHi0

Many things in there to agree or disagree with, it's worth sitting through the whole thing.

[Josh128]

Sorry, do you come from an alternate universe where rubella, measles, and polio are still a thing? Or are you just pretending those magically stopped being a widespread problem in North America with no human intervention whatsoever? The vaccines have absolutely been shown to minimize the severity of the disease, so I'd suggest you ignore whoever is feeding you your "information" because it's frankly bullshit.

Right on cue, here comes the personal insults and strawman arguments typical of the far left (textbook, actually) assuming everyone else is "ignorant", and attempting to ridicule rather than considering emperical data put before you.

A few points:

1.)Never did I did mention a single word about the ability of the vaccine to reduce severity / hospitalizations / death. So you can stick that right back up your ass from which you pulled it.

2.)I'll remind you, as you seem to have forgotten, that I spoke of the vaccines inability to prevent transmission of the SARS-COV-2 virus. It is very true Rubella, measles, polio are largely eradicated in developed countries thanks to vaccines that significantly reduce the both the rate of infection and transmission of the virus. Once again, you trying to claim I said anything about that not being true is disingenuous, and is an attempt to to tarnish my credibility based on false pretenses and accusations. This is COMPLETELY typical of the far-left snowflake types that would associate conservative Christians with Neo Nazis. Once again, you should be ashamed of yourself for trying to do this.

3.)Heres a little example for you. Massachusetts currently has vaccination rates of 95%/78% (single dose/fully vaccinated) and is among the most highly vaccinated states per capita in the country, yet, it had an almost 100% greater number of cases per day during the winter '21/'22 surge than Louisiana, despite having only a 48% greater population. MA has a 58% and 50% (single dose/fully vaccinated) greater vaccination rate per capita than Louisiana.

LA Population: 4.6M
Fully Vaxxed: 2.39M
Daily Avg Cases@Peak of Winter '21/'22: 12691
% of Daily cases per capita: 0.27%

MA Population: 6.8M
Fully Vaxxed: 5.3M
Daily Avg Cases@Peak of Winter '21/'22: 24420
% of Daily cases per capita: 0.36%
----------------------------------------------------------
.36/.27=.33 So despite having a +50% greater vaccination rate per capita than LA, MA had a +33% higher infection rate than LA. This is empirical evidence that the vaccination rate had literally zero effect on the transmission of the disease. The more highly vaccinated population had higher percentage of transmission.


People like you ignore data like this and other pertinent data such as the importance and weight of previous COVID infection. It has been proven that previous infection is at least as, or more, effective at preventing disease than the vaccine, yet communists such as yourself attempted to force vaccination on the general population regardless of previous infection and recovery status, going as far as to try to prevent them from being able to work if they were employed at a company / corporation that numbered 100 people or more. Pure motherfucking ignorance. Thank God your line of thinking was struck down and proven unconstitutional and illegal by the Supreme court.

Full disclosure: Myself and my wife have both had previous COVID-19 infections and are both double fucking vaccinated. Im 100% positive you assumed I was an anti-vaxxing Neo Nazi. Again, thats typical. Sad, but typical.

[GaijinPunch]

1.)Never did I did mention a single word about the ability of the vaccine to reduce severity / hospitalizations / death. So you can stick that right back up your ass from which you pulled it.

You said it doesn't even curb the rate of infection -- so not a single person that was vaccinated would have actually gotten covid had they not been vaccinated?

Back to your point about the question of it being ethical to use an "unproven" vaccine - by your admission above by default it quantifiable keeps ERs at a lower capacity. Tucker Carlson may not agree but that is the most important metric to some, and is the way majors of NYC, SF, and Chicago should have packaged the vaccine mandates.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

Never did I did mention a single word about the ability of the vaccine to reduce severity / hospitalizations / death.

And this right here is, in fact, the exact problem, though you apparently fail to recognize it. Not only are you wrong on the vaccine's effectiveness on transmissibility, but you're also parroting a common antivaxxer falsehood that often goes hand in hand with mouth-frothing rants about masks infringing on freedom, restricting, oxygen, and other nonsense. We all know that vaccines alone don't completely stop transmission (which is unsurprising given that it's a highly transmissible airborne disease), but the vaccines are important not just because of transmission rates but also because we have very solid data showing that the severity and complications of things like long after-effects from COVID-19 are greatly reduced. This reduces the overall burden on hospitals and allows them to focus their care on those who do get seriously sick instead of fighting for ventilator access, as well as avoiding overloading our healthcare systems which causes people with other illnesses to go uncared for properly, such as those with cancer or chronic illnesses.

To summarize, it is extremely important that everyone be a responsible citizen and get vaccinated. Part of being a responsible citizen also includes not spreading disingenuous bullshit such as remarks like claiming the vaccine is merely "an emergency use-only vaccine in their body that has been proven to not prevent or even curb the spread of infection" which is characteristically untrue.

Myself and my wife have both had previous COVID-19 infections and are both double fucking vaccinated. Im 100% positive you assumed I was an anti-vaxxing Neo Nazi. Again, thats typical. Sad, but typical.

So basically you're a special brand of dumb that manages to do the right thing but still parrots idiotic antivaxxer talking points while demonstrating a fundamental ignorance about the vaccine. You're actually looking for praise for this? Do you want a sparkly "you tried" sticker?

It has been proven that previous infection is at least as, or more, effective at preventing disease than the vaccine

Tell that to Hana Horka. It's this kind of idiotic commentary that continues to inspire people to avoid the vaccine.

You. Are. Part. Of. The. Problem.

[system11]

masks infringing on freedom, restricting, oxygen, and other nonsense.

Actually they really do make a huge difference for some people if you're wearing one that is actually going to work. I find myself falling asleep, overheating and breathing heavily through my mouth after about 20 minutes with the proper N95 ones. It's like being suffocated. I sometimes have to wear them for 6 hours at a time, it's exhausting - I have great sympathy with people who have to do this daily. Twice now I've had to get antibiotics after skin infections round the back of my ear from the hoops. One ear is now scarred, I've only ever used sealed medical ones at minimum (only when the N95 ones ran out), never re-used them etc.

It's why I'm electing to stick with home working rather than returning to the office even though I don't like working from home. Just tired of people pretending it's a zero impact thing.

Plus they make people look like ghouls, especially those ones that look like the Hannibal Lecter mask without the mouth grate.

[GaijinPunch]

It's why I'm electing to stick with home working rather than returning to the office even though I don't like working from home. Just tired of people pretending it's a zero impact thing.

I don't think it's zero impact, but it's very little downside. The only time the masks truly suck is in heat or doing cardio exercise (the latter of which I've had to do in California) -- or wearing them all fucking day. It sucks, and just like you - I will not work in any office even a day a week if there is a mask mandate in pace. It's simply not comfortable. I'm very thankful I have that choice. I know not everyone does. These poor fuckers at Starbucks.

[Ed Oscuro]

N95 comfort might vary. GP, what models are you using? I admit to wearing only cloth masks in the rare times I venture outside, although I have a box of real ones from last year.

The most effective intervention is simply staying away from other people, so WFH is undoubtedly the right choice (assuming you aren't breathing air recirculated from a plague victim's apartment). If you must go out in public, reduce your time there as much as possible - dosage seems to be important! Your chances of getting sick seem to increase the more virus you breathe in. Conversely, if you just inhale a few particles your immune system has a better shot at overwhelming them before it gets serious. The problem is how to do right by people who must to work with the public, without entirely shutting down the economy which would be bad for everybody. Rapid testing is a useful tool that for some reason hasn't been promoted much in the US as it helps limit the impact of lockdown and isolation on people who aren't actually infected. The gold standard would be to do everything remotely, but that's not gonna happen.

RE: Josh128, I think we should give people some breathing room for not having the facts locked down. The CDC and WHO have been not good at times. Example: The accepted (i.e., cargo cult) science at the CDC on aerosol transmission was that the virus would fall to the ground in about 6 feet, when in reality it is an aerosol that can travel on slight air currents for quite a ways. This view, as it turns out, appears to holdover from a '50s CDC director's pet project to eradicate the lingering remnants of 'miasma theory,' i.e., hard-won experience from Civil War open air hospitals and the virus pandemic of 1917 (and maybe 1886, the "Russian" flu), even as other experts were gathering evidence in favor of the modern aerosol transmission model. Aerosol science experts had to win a debate to get some physics literacy into the CDC model, which I find shocking. That whole MEN (Mouth, Ears, Nose) thing? Just a meme. Hand sanitizer isn't bad, and might even have prevented a few cases of infection. But compared to any other useful intervention (like ventilation and rapid testing) that we could spend money on, it's a waste because it's focusing on the wrong method of transmission. See also: Dr. "Chubbyemu" Bernard's videos on people who have swallowed surprising materials and wrecked their digestive organs in hopes of 'sanitizing' their lungs.

Up until recently I thought that vaccination reduced transmission rates. Nope, and nope. This is a surprising oddity!

Mass vaccination will help "herd immunity" because it lowers your risk of infection (you can't transmit COVID if you don't get infected, and fewer people transmitting COVID when it gets into the wild helps kill it off quickly). But if you get a "mild" case of COVID, you may be shedding that virus at roughly the same rate as an unvaccinated or quite sick person, even if you feel fine.

Vaccines give a very strong degree of immunity with very little risk. I had a pretty nasty reaction to my second jab of three, which means I had to sleep it off through chills for two entire days. An unvaccinated person has to be infected to gain immunity without the benefit of safe training from a vaccine, and the degree of immunity is only proportional to how severe the case was. If you just skated through a "mild" infection - which would still have likely been much worse than even my quite unusual reaction - you can't count on having a useful degree of immunity. To get "strong" immunity from a COVID infection you had to have survived a more severe case, which could easily have turned you into a cold statistic or "only" left you with debilitating lifelong effects on your heart, lungs, and brain. It's not clear to me how long unvaccinated immunity lasts, either. Vaccine immunity appears to be the gold standard. But even vaccine immunity can wear off surprisingly quickly for some.

COVID is very good at mutating, so we must check all the relevant facts for each new variant. But mainly, stay away from potential plague bearers, and get more shots whenever you can.

Sorry for the novel, I tried to edit for length...with limited success as usual...

[GaijinPunch]

N95 comfort might vary. GP, what models are you using? I admit to wearing only cloth masks in the rare times I venture outside, although I have a box of real ones from last year.

Cloth masks (that I make). When doing cardio these are a PITA -- this shouldn't be hard to fathom. The other time is when you wear them for hours on end. They are mainly most annoying on the ears for me. I'm not advocating not using a mask in the least. I'm just saying if I can opt out of situation where I have to wear one, I will.

(assuming you aren't breathing air recirculated from a plague victim's apartment).

No but questionable cooking and weed regularly.

[BulletMagnet]

I'm sure Joe will save us.

Though I'm hardly over the moon when it comes to Biden - is anyone, for that matter? - I am curious who you think has better ideas for how to deal with the Ukraine situation.

Off to the side, there was an op-ed yesterday by a "moderate" conservative which began by insisting that the rise of authoritarianism worldwide needs to be opposed - and spent the rest of the article blaming the left for not "selling the alternative" to people enough. Putting aside the notion that it's exclusively the responsibility of the left to resist authoritarianism - the right is apparently free to continue openly and gleefully undermining key democratic institutions and radicalizing the Very Fine People to achieve its aims, and nobody should ever be impolite enough to suggest that they have any role to play in undoing the damage they continue to wreak - just the idea that countless millions upon millions of people supposedly need to be sold on the idea that authoritarianism is not a desirable outcome to begin with...color me profoundly depressed.

EDIT: Sanctions, eh? Maybe we'll just crash the international space station down onto you. As one does.

[orange808]

I'm sure Joe will save us.

Though I'm hardly over the moon when it comes to Biden - is anyone, for that matter? - I am curious who you think has better ideas for how to deal with the Ukraine situation.

Agreed. That's my question, too. What can be done?

Off to the side, there was an op-ed yesterday by a "moderate" conservative which began by insisting that the rise of authoritarianism worldwide needs to be opposed - and spent the rest of the article blaming the left for not "selling the alternative" to people enough. Putting aside the notion that it's exclusively the responsibility of the left to resist authoritarianism - the right is apparently free to continue openly and gleefully undermining key democratic institutions and radicalizing the Very Fine People to achieve its aims, and nobody should ever be impolite enough to suggest that they have any role to play in undoing the damage they continue to wreak - just the idea that countless millions upon millions of people supposedly need to be sold on the idea that authoritarianism is not a desirable outcome to begin with...color me profoundly depressed.

EDIT: Sanctions, eh? Maybe we'll just crash the international space station down onto you. As one does.

All true.

I'd also add that this is why many lefties are often wrong on the military. This "zero sum" rhetoric is dangerous and stupid. We can't completely defund the police or military. They are essential. Stop hitting Bernie over the head on this.

Stop being hippies. I hate guns. That should be clear by now. I hate war, but I don't live in an idealistic fantasy world. (Your own personal little pop gun wouldn't help you against a modern army, by the way. Even an assault rifle won't help much. You need a real military.)

All functional economies require well defined property rights and stability. You can't have assets getting siezed or destroyed. Europe faces the largest threat. Yet, the entire economy and everything else relies on the agreement that assets are relatively secure and safe. Like or not, people are terrible. We can't just get along and we never will. That's why there's a military. The only way to really be safe is a military. Striking a good balance is essential, but it has to be there.

The only reason Putin isn't marching into Germany is the threat of a nuclear war. You see, if he goes too far, everyone in his nation dies. Nobody wins, but he definitely dies. Lots of people everywhere die. The good news is, Putin likes living. He isn't pursuing some kind of imaginary supernatural reward after he takes the dirt nap. He likes living and being rich. That threat of mutual assured destruction stays his hand.

The same threat will stop China from marching into Europe. Although, they will take Taiwan and there's nothing anyone can do about it. Red lines still have to be there. That has to be there. It's essential. Sorry. Triggered? Sorry. I didn't make everyone as asshole. This deterrent must be there: "If you invade Australia, the world ends. I don't care. I'm doing full release. Everyone dies. It all ends. Japan? Yep. World ends. It's over." Chinese leaders love being alive and rich. They don't want to live in a bunker in a nuclear wasteland. They don't want to die. So, it works.

So many ugly and inconvenient realities in this world. And, this is why religious warriors scare everyone. Because, there's the risk of someone that doesn't want to be alive and rich. That removes the deterrents and complicates everything. And, that's why we favor many of these current leaders over the alternatives, because someone that doesn't care if they live is significantly more dangerous, given that everything hinges on these ridiculously destructive weapon capabilities.

Sorry if this triggers you. It's the world we live in.

[Ed Oscuro]

N95 comfort might vary. GP, what models are you using? I admit to wearing only cloth masks in the rare times I venture outside, although I have a box of real ones from last year.

Cloth masks (that I make).

Unless I'm missing something here, you can't DIY a KN95 or N95 mask from cloth. Cloth masks are better than nothing, but I wouldn't trust them to save me when subjected to somebody else's air for a long period of time, especially when doing exercise. Only N95 masks are thought to give sufficient protection.

[To Far Away Times]

I'm sure Joe will save us.

Though I'm hardly over the moon when it comes to Biden - is anyone, for that matter? - I am curious who you think has better ideas for how to deal with the Ukraine situation.

Off to the side, there was an op-ed yesterday by a "moderate" conservative which began by insisting that the rise of authoritarianism worldwide needs to be opposed - and spent the rest of the article blaming the left for not "selling the alternative" to people enough. Putting aside the notion that it's exclusively the responsibility of the left to resist authoritarianism - the right is apparently free to continue openly and gleefully undermining key democratic institutions and radicalizing the Very Fine People to achieve its aims, and nobody should ever be impolite enough to suggest that they have any role to play in undoing the damage they continue to wreak - just the idea that countless millions upon millions of people supposedly need to be sold on the idea that authoritarianism is not a desirable outcome to begin with...color me profoundly depressed.

EDIT: Sanctions, eh? Maybe we'll just crash the international space station down onto you. As one does.

It sure would be nice if there was some sort of anti-fascist movement in the US.

[system11]

The only reason Putin isn't marching into Germany is the threat of a nuclear war. You see, if he goes too far, everyone in his nation dies. Nobody wins, but he definitely dies. Lots of people everywhere die. The good news is, Putin likes living. He isn't pursuing some kind of imaginary supernatural reward after he takes the dirt nap. He likes living and being rich. That threat of mutual assured destruction stays his hand.

Today he announced he has put his nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as a response to Nato and sanctions. Someone in Russia needs to remove him already.

[orange808]

Today he announced he has put his nuclear deterrent on 'special alert' as a response to Nato and sanctions. Someone in Russia needs to remove him already.

Mostly posturing. It is an excellent reminder that he can only be removed from power by domestic forces inside Russia.

The next step is to push Russia into isolation. Putin has no desire to become a client state and bow down low to kiss Xi's hand. If we reshuffle the division of energy and trade, Russia will become completely beholden to China. He will become a puppet emperor. Putin would never be happy in that position. I wonder what he'll do? I don't see any better options. That would take a long time, though. Maybe Putin can find a way to maintain his European business and reestablish ties with the west.

I was more struck by news that Germany has responded with something I've been wanting for years. They are increasing their defense spending permanently. The American military is over burdened and the United States cannot afford to spend more on it. While many European nations have been able to furnish their citizens with better economic mobility and health care outcomes, America has funneled huge sums into providing a free sense of security. I choose those words, because the only way Europe can be truly secure is by maintaining their own military in partnership with the allies. We have to work together. The US is to blame for most of its problems, but the funding is still problematic. Ultimately, this cannot work unless everyone is fully invested. Europe has not been--and there's no way to deny it. NATO must have muscle and the United States cannot act alone as world police. Biden cannot save the world, but he can help; the most effective thing he can do is talk, shake hands, and help put NATO back together.

I still can't understand why Putin would do this. Ukraine is so big. Does Russia have enough troops to subdue such a large country? I feel like he believes he will be "welcomed as a liberators". Not the same thing as Iraq, because Ukraine has a deep history with Moscow, but the 2014 conflict suggests there isn't much political love for Russia. A long term guerrilla war against a hostile population with uncontrollable borders to hostile nations? Who wins a war like that? This seems like it can only cost money and lives. And, the more force Putin applies, the more people he will kill--and every death will create an instant permanent grudge among family and friends that will last forever. A murderous vengeful dark unforgiving black grudge that can never be satisfied. The feeling of losing a loved one to murder. That creates determined guerilla warriors. Yikes. People are dangerous. All of them. Creating enemies like that isn't smart.