Hirai & c. have said at E3 that there are like 100 millions of PS2 in our homes and they're not going anywhere soon. Sony talks to continue to support the system.
I guess this is... bad news. Yeah. The fact that they seem to rely on PS2, makes PS3 look like not a replacement, but the high-end expensive model in the family. Once again, like they did with PSX (not the original, that big crap lump Kiken mentioned before), they're adopting an hi-fi marketing strategy to the games' industry.
Only, it doesn't work that way with games. Because you can play Mozart on a $50 player or on a $5000 one, but you will play MGS4 only on PS3.
Last generation, I bought a PS2 quite late (after MGS2 eur launch), bought a Cube quite early (Prime bundle) eventually regretting it, and overlooked a system that surely got some of the best deals these years (Xbox).
This generation - heck, first of all, I'd need a new tv set. A nice, gorgeous HD tv where all my dvds and even whs and gaming device will look like shit. I can't wait to see when they're expect me to buy again all my anime in HD media - and it ain't gonna happen.
I mean - some months ago on jp's thread the momentarily conclusion was that it was sony's game to drop the ball. And this E3 wasn't exactly stellar for them (heck, they managed to even offer you less than PS2 does - since dualshock is without vibration now). Heavenly Swords looks good, but not worthy-of-$200-more than Gears of War.
What does justify these $200 more? They have only vaguely hinted at online services, while 360 already lets you downloading Geometry Wars and Contra. Sure, the have 1080p - that will be awesome, let's say, ten years from now, when maybe 1080p tvs will be spread over europe. Maybe. (Of course, ten years from now, the raw power of a Cell-equipped PS3 will excite us as the PSone is now)
They have lost brands - ridge racer, GTA - all stuff you can find somewhere else too.
So yes, the most obvious advantage they still have really is something with zero technology in it: the words "playstation" on the chassis. The very synonym of "videogame" worldwide. Then again as Atari and Nintendo have been at their time. And they crumbled.
I used to think they could flood the market with PSPs and just
wait for the success to arrive - now I'm not even so sure about that. Makaimura's still the only title that remotely sounds fun in the next months. And there's no doubt that DS had a much stronger lineup at this E3 too. It's Yoshi Island and Zelda against... huh, Metal Gear digital comic, guys.
Yeah, speaking of Snake - "Old Snake" is truly the best symbol of Sony these days. It's an old drama that comes to an end - the hero is tired of war, the director wants to put an end and do different things - it's curtain call. The end of the show. And it sounds glorious, every bit of it. You see the silver mullet and think how great were the PSone days - honestly, I feel like I'm bound to PS3 just to end that. And I'm sure it draws its old fans, but not a single people more. Kojima himself said it was a game aimed to the old audience - his own generation. Perhaps these words might be true for PS3 as well.
So, has Sony dropped the ball? Maybe the real question should be - is there a competitor that can truly replace it? Somehow I don't see Microsoft doing it - you can't beat the original at his own game. And the brand "xbox" - the green colour - it's all stuff only some nerd would love. Sure, they're the kind of hardcore users that usually work as "propeller" for sales, as bloodflowers said. But it's not gonna break the wall of the hardcore fan, I'd say. There's a winning name like "PlayStation" once every - well, the only other one was GameBoy, really.
Xbox actually is a lot like their brand hero, Master Chief - a cool armored warrior, a bit faceless, lacking personality. He looks strong but it's the same cheap allure WWF, or Dead or Alive if you want - it's stuff for geeks. And he stars in a game that was invented in the west, on pc. And for all intent and purposes, the best things that genre brought to the pc scene were the free Doom demo and the freely modified Counterstrike - to have it repackaged into a console game does sound like deviation from the original underground inspiration. Much like the Xbox was a repackaged pc.
But anyway - Microsoft and Sony' software lineups are interchangeable, and I can't see Microsoft taking the lead just because PS3 is more expensive - if gamers really were that intelligent, they'll realize that they can play gothams and titfighters already on their regular Xbox and wouldn't even switch to next-gen at all.
Sony is the exact opposite that they were during psone days, yes, but when it comes to software, it's not like Microsoft suddenly is fresh or offers groundbreaking news. Far from that.
Then there's Nintendo - you know, last time the whole "nintendo difference" was a big screw for me - all I got was a gameboy player with an horribly twisted dualshock and the ability to play iterations of big N games - none of which was exactly awesome. Zelda arguably had seen better days, Metroid was cool for the atmosphere and the fact that you were saying "incredible! they got it in 3D - right! and at first attempt!" Except it really wasn't. Would comment on Mario Sunshine but, would you believe? I intentionally avoided it.
Okay, so the cube was a gbplaying playstation with few games, poor third party support, and available in lovely orange and violet shades.
But Wii aims to be much more. Yeah - except, will it recreate the unbelievably positive trend of DS? I can't really say for now - it's cheap, it's built with mine tv set in mind, and I will buy it. But, you know? I'm already leaning to play, if I must, Twilight Princess cube rather than Wii. Slashing the air with a remote sounds exciting for like, thirty minutes, before your arm aches and you realize you look like a Power-Glove suited dork.
But it's not even that - the Wiimote is awesome, it will create wonderful gaming moments I'm sure. But in order for nintendo to win, it must allow goodness into its realm. GTA. Silent Hill. And in unadulterated form. Nintendo still doesn't allow that. It's so limited - I can kill my wife, go crazy and commit suicide in SH2, then swap disc and enjoy Katamari. If Wii won't allow the same thing, no matter if you control games via ESP powers, it's still a (huge) stepback.
So in short - Microsoft offering might be cheaper, and marginally better, but being roughly the same it won't surpass Sony. [edit: or maybe it will, who knows

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And Nintendo is still willingly aiming at a niche market - it doesn't offer product for everyone on their console, so they can't win.
Sony is shitty these days but the others aren't exactly brilliant.
Wrote too much, get back to play some DS...