Peak oil doomsaying thread.

[Rob]

I know some people here must've been or are obsessed with this and other related factors on the horizon.

As far as I know some research has suggested oil production has peaked already and some have a more optimistic 10+ year distance until that point (?). How long until casual airline use disappears, for one thing?

[Fenrir]

Some people say we have 30 years before the world supplies will be depleted, while other say that we've got a bloody lot to use, peruse and abuse for the centuries to come.
Since you will never know the truth becaue humanity is a collective of bastards hungry for money above everything else, it's just a matter of being pessimistic/optimistic.

It's a fact - we will never know. I've heard everything and its countrary.

[Rob]

Some people say we have 30 years before the world supplies will be depleted, while other say that we've got a bloody lot to use, peruse and abuse for the centuries to come.

"Depleted" as in completely? I think the idea is it only takes a gradual drop while pop. and demand increases to cause major problems. For one thing, no Disney World.

p.s. no Cave

[BulletMagnet]

Guess you'd be interested in this, seeing as you're up in proposed drilling country, heh heh.

As far as exactly how much oil we have left, who knows...it'll be a different figure depending on who funds the study. Whatever the case, it wouldn't be a bad idea to limit (and hopefully eventually phase out) our use of it, because even if we have enough to last us till doomsday, we could do without the pollution, not to mention the fact that in many cases repressive regimes control the supply (and thus get our money). Plus the price-gouging ways of our wonderful oil execs (who have the gall to blame "public demand" for the price spikes, on top of that).

[Rob]

Guess you'd be interested in this, seeing as you're up in proposed drilling country, heh heh.

Speaking of which, considering the pathetic amount it would yield should tell you how desperate they are. Obviously they are desperate, but really really really desperate. Are they hoping it will help ease the transition from the present to The Grapes of Wrath, or give them an extra year for the solar panels they're planning and ethanol fields? I really am not against the drilling anymore because of the land (I used to be), simply because it will be ruined/disrupted by global warming anyways.

[BulletMagnet]

I really am not against the drilling anymore because of the land (I used to be), simply because it will be ruined/disrupted by global warming anyways.

Heh heh...apathy, the politician's best friend.

In any case, as far as exactly why they want to drill there even though they wouldn't get a whole lot out of it, I'm half tempted to think that it's just the current administration flexing its muscles more than anything else...remember back in the early-mid 90's, especially, when environmentalism was "in" and people actually knew (and/or cared) when Earth Day was? Well, those days are long gone and hard-line conservatives in particular couldn't be happier, since it pretty much gives them free reign to remove any such obstacles to profitability. Heck, they've already all but dismantled the Clean Air Act, and heaven knows what else.

[professor ganson]

One friend of mine insists that, if in fact oil were going to be scarce anytime soon, the price would be much higher now. I guess the thought is that it is in the oil producers interests to have the price high-- they make much more money when it is high. So why isn't the price much higher right now? Because there really is no shortage in sight, and oil producers know this.

One worry here, though, is the phrase "no shortage in sight." How forward-looking are our markets, really? We all know that supply affects price, as demand remains constant. If there is soon to be a shortage of diamonds because of a civil war, then the price will go up. But what if the shortage isn't to come for 20 years. Would that really affect price now? Here you have to know much more about economics than I do to be confident on the issue.

If there are dark times ahead for the next generation, then it may well turn out that we lived in the most affluent time in human history. Lucky us!

[Rob]

One friend of mine insists that, if in fact oil were going to be scarce anytime soon, the price would be much higher now.

I don't think it's an issue of immediate scarcity, but a gradual drop from peak with a gradual increase in demand. It could be 50+ years, but I feel sorry for whoever has to take the heat for our trinket collections today.

[professor ganson]

I feel sorry for whoever has to take the heat for our trinket collections today.

Seriously, I think about it pretty much everyday. Just to take one example-- think about how much fuel is used for auto racing in this country. I guess future generations just don't matter much to most Americans.

[Rob]

just to take one example-- think about how much fuel is used for auto racing in this country.

Thinking about it makes me mad. "Let's see how much gas and tires we can burn up by running around in circles a few hundred times!" History will look lovingly on auto racing for sure. Thankfully this will be one of the first things to go with too high oil prices.

[landshark]

knock off half the population of the world ... problem solved. I say take out the bottom hemisphere

</sarcasm>

[Davey]

just to take one example-- think about how much fuel is used for auto racing in this country.

Thinking about it makes me mad. "Let's see how much gas and tires we can burn up by running around in circles a few hundred times!" History will look lovingly on auto racing for sure. Thankfully this will be one of the first things to go with too high oil prices.

Turning left for hours on end isn't the wisest use of limited resources, but I doubt NASCAR accounts for a significant percentage of total US oil consumption. Increased usage of telecommuting and public transportation would probably do a lot more to conserve fossil fuels, and it wouldn't make millions of rednecks unruly. Then again, it would really piss of the middle and upper classes.

knock off half the population of the world ... problem solved. I say take out the bottom hemisphere Wink

</sarcasm>

Of course it's sarcasm... you need to take out the western hemisphere for that to work.

Speaking of the oil companies, I've heard they develop patents on alternative energy sources, and then just sit on them so that people still rely on oil, but have no choice. Can anybody validate this? It sounds interesting and feasible, but I'd like to learn more about it from a factual source that doesn't ooze with liberal crackpotness.

[BulletMagnet]

Speaking of the oil companies, I've heard they develop patents on alternative energy sources, and then just sit on them so that people still rely on oil, but have no choice.

I've heard similar stories, of someone developing an engine or the like which can run on cleaner energy sources than oil, but then being bought out by the oil companies, which pretty much put the operation to sleep. I'm not sure where one might go to confirm that though...I doubt the Powers That Be would make info like this readily available, at any rate.

Of course, if these stories are true, seeing as at least some people are now demanding alternative energy, maybe sometime in the future the oil companies will have to actually do something with the ideas they've bought out, or else risk succumbing to marketing myopia and dying out.

[Rob]

but I doubt NASCAR accounts for a significant percentage of total US oil consumption.

Yeah, it's just a good example of indiscriminate use.

[Acid King]

Speaking of the oil companies, I've heard they develop patents on alternative energy sources, and then just sit on them so that people still rely on oil, but have no choice. Can anybody validate this? It sounds interesting and feasible, but I'd like to learn more about it from a factual source that doesn't ooze with liberal crackpotness.

I don't know how true that is, but there are plenty of reasons why they would do that. The oil and energy companies are the ones who are going to develop the the new technologies and the new energy sources. They have the money and the infrastructure to make use of them properly (gas stations, refineries etc). They have to sit on the technologies because they have to wait for them to be cost effective before introducing them. We have hundreds of millions of cars, trucks, planes, buses running on fossil fuels. To think some magical technology that everyone is going to be able to afford is going to come along and it's all going to change over is ludicrous. It's going to be a slow, gradual change that the big, evil, greedy energy companies are going to facilitate and make as smooth as possible, because they have a stake in the future. They can't afford to let the oil well run dry, to wait til there is a huge worldwide shortage of oil before springing into action because it would fuck up their business, their profits.

[Rob]

because they have a stake in the future.

[Davey]

but I doubt NASCAR accounts for a significant percentage of total US oil consumption.

Yeah, it's just a good example of indiscriminate use.

Yeah, the Blue Angels aren't as much fun to make fun of. Especially on a message board devoted to games where you fly fighter jets.

[Some good points]

Very true, but stuff like the Unocal patent fiasco illustrates their abuse of the patent system.

[Rob]

Yeah, the Blue Angels aren't as much fun to make fun of. Especially on a message board devoted to games where you fly fighter jets.

I really don't want to get in a pissing contest over something so stupid, but the Blue Angels are 1 degree less indiscriminate, air shows are far less prevalent (so would be a much poorer example) and get the same amount of cartoon-patriotism/redneck stereotyping/are just as fun to make fun of.

As for shmops, I've never cared what the images on screen represent. I'll take the octopus ship or the knight to the left there. SPRITES DON'T BURN REAL GAS LOL.

[FatCobra]

The real problem is the type of cars us Americans are driving. Gas prices are higher than ever and we are still driving large SUVs like Hummers.

Not me of course, I drive a 2006 Ford Focus. It gets 26 miles per gallon and is hella fun to drive.

Of course, a racial solution is simply take over the Middle East and throw out all of their corrupt governments. (And steal their oil in the process).

It'll probably be a slow, painful process before oil use is phased out. Most of us will probably be old enough to see the headline, "Last drop of oil pumped out of Earth!"

Maybe they'll discover oil on another planet..if they speed up the space program and stop cutting it's budget. At this rate, China will be the ones to discover another world.

[system11]

Not me of course, I drive a 2006 Ford Focus. It gets 26 miles per gallon and is hella fun to drive.

What the fuck have they done to the US Focus?

In the UK, the Focus delivers between 39 and 51 mpg depending on model. Are you sure your figures are right? Even my 4.0L V8 BMW used to get nearly 30.

If your numbers are right, this highlights a pretty fucked up situation - where Ford are importing European cars (it's where the Focus came from) and somehow making them far less efficient.

[PaCrappa]

I really don't want to get in a pissing contest over something so stupid, but the Blue Angels are 1 degree less indiscriminate, air shows are far less prevalent (so would be a much poorer example) and get the same amount of cartoon-patriotism/redneck stereotyping/are just as fun to make fun of.

Thing with the Blue Angels is they're weapons. In my old neighborhood, every year for Seafair the Blue Angels would spend about twenty minutes, five or six days in a row flying about 50 feet above my house all willy nilly, sideways, upside, fast, slow you name it. I'm being completely serious. Anyway, it was super disturbing, especially for one of my dogs. So my neighborhood at the time (I've moved a couple times now) consisted largely of minorites, especially imigrants from Asian countries. I didn't even think about it, but if you've lived in certain places during certain times, the sometimes abruptly deafening racket that the Blue Fucking Angels wantonly create is just about exactly the same noise you'd hear moments before your village got blasted to smithereens, your cows got disintegrated and your daughter got her legs and left side of her face blown off. Those are genuine examples expressed by folks that sounded like they lived it. I found it to be food for thought.

I hate the Blue Angels.

Pa

[FatCobra]

Not me of course, I drive a 2006 Ford Focus. It gets 26 miles per gallon and is hella fun to drive.

What the fuck have they done to the US Focus?

In the UK, the Focus delivers between 39 and 51 mpg depending on model. Are you sure your figures are right? Even my 4.0L V8 BMW used to get nearly 30.

If your numbers are right, this highlights a pretty fucked up situation - where Ford are importing European cars (it's where the Focus came from) and somehow making them far less efficient.

Hmm...either the US has very lax fuel economy resrictions or Europe has some very tight ones. Maybe the US Foci have bigger engines and less inhibtive equipment?

Well, I used to drive a 95 Explorer and it only got about 12 miles a gallon, so 26 mpg in my new car is a godsend.

[JigsawMan]

Not me of course, I drive a 2006 Ford Focus. It gets 26 miles per gallon and is hella fun to drive.

What the fuck have they done to the US Focus?

I second that. Maybe they just have the auto model and leave it stuck in 'sports' mode.

Even my 4.0L V8 BMW used to get nearly 30.

How do you afford the insurance on that? I have a 2.0L Ford Mondeo (yar, I know they are everywhere but I love it) and the insurance on that is the best part of £800.

Anyways, getting back ontopic whatever happened to the 'peak oil' site www.lifeafterthecrash.net; it made a good read but its even disappeared off archive.org; We live in a total oil based economy - so yeah I think we are going to see a huge change int he way things run.

I think there's only one country that doesn't rely on fossil fuels for day-to-day power - grrenland/iceland or somwhere up that way. Maybe I'm wrong. Anyways, I could rant on forever about this bt I need to go and turn the heating on and get some more petrol. 90p/litre!!!

[Neon]

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Though that site is the tiniest bit extremist (he's trying to sell his book, you know).

[system11]

How do you afford the insurance on that? I have a 2.0L Ford Mondeo (yar, I know they are everywhere but I love it) and the insurance on that is the best part of £800.

I'm 31 with full protected no claims, no points, accidents or convictions. I was paying a little under 400 for it a year. It was an older one, 1994. I sold it though, had a series of small problems but I think it was planning to suffer a big engine fault so I offloaded it to a dealer. Having been screwed by dealers before I felt little remorse. Bought a cheap Vectra 2.5 CDX, and of course - it broke instead, so in the end I saved no money at all and travel in less style. It doesn't cost as much to fuel though, on motorway cruising despite being a V6 auto it's getting just over 40mpg.

If you want a real laugh, I also have a Capri 2.8 Turbo, modified to 275bhp, valued at 5000, and it costs 200 to insure. Shop around for your insurance

[BulletMagnet]

Hmm...either the US has very lax fuel economy resrictions or Europe has some very tight ones.

It's probably a combination of the two...overall, to the best of my knowledge, Europe tends to take this sort of thing much more seriously than the U.S. IIRC, in fact, I vaguely recall hearing something about drivers in certain especially congested parts of London being charged a toll or something like that, in order to encourage more people to use public transportation...IIRC that was more about lessening traffic than pollution, but honestly, either way could you imagine them trying to impose something like that in the U.S.?

[Rob]

Maybe they'll discover oil on another planet..if they speed up the space program and stop cutting it's budget. At this rate, China will be the ones to discover another world.

http://research.amnh.org/users/tyson/es ... mHere.html

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Though that site is the tiniest bit extremist (he's trying to sell his book, you know).

Yeah, it's probably a good idea to not make your information site look like a store, and then probably tone down the sensationalist drama - even if that's what you think will happen. I've seen this guy posting on the peakoil.com forums, and if he doesn't think this is exactly what will happen he's really putting in the extra effort to play it up. Personally I have no idea how worried to be about the future, so I think I'll just play Rajirugi. I think America will be a much different place in 100 years though. I'm calling that one now.

[Neon]

From Rob's link:

During the heat of the space race in the 1960s, the U.S. National Aeronautics and Space Administration [NASA] decided it needed a ball point pen to write in the zero gravity confines of its space capsules. After considerable research and development, the Astronaut Pen was developed at a cost of approximately $1 million U.S. The pen worked and also enjoyed some modest success as a novelty item back here on earth. The Soviet Union, faced with the same problem, used a pencil.

[Davey]

Not me of course, I drive a 2006 Ford Focus. It gets 26 miles per gallon and is hella fun to drive.

What the fuck have they done to the US Focus?

In the UK, the Focus delivers between 39 and 51 mpg depending on model. Are you sure your figures are right? Even my 4.0L V8 BMW used to get nearly 30.

If your numbers are right, this highlights a pretty fucked up situation - where Ford are importing European cars (it's where the Focus came from) and somehow making them far less efficient.

1.) I think the smallest US Focus engine is the biggest UK Focus engine. Something about Americans needing more power [insert penis size analogy here]. Actually, I could have sworn I heard that from you... my memory is already going bad at 25.

2.) 1 UK gallon is about 1.2 US gallons. I guess the standard system isn't all that standard. Yet somehow, the metric system baffles us Yanks.

[FatCobra]

Not me of course, I drive a 2006 Ford Focus. It gets 26 miles per gallon and is hella fun to drive.

What the fuck have they done to the US Focus?

In the UK, the Focus delivers between 39 and 51 mpg depending on model. Are you sure your figures are right? Even my 4.0L V8 BMW used to get nearly 30.

If your numbers are right, this highlights a pretty fucked up situation - where Ford are importing European cars (it's where the Focus came from) and somehow making them far less efficient.

1.) I think the smallest US Focus engine is the biggest UK Focus engine. Something about Americans needing more power [insert penis size analogy here]. Actually, I could have sworn I heard that from you... my memory is already going bad at 25.

2.) 1 UK gallon is about 1.2 US gallons. I guess the standard system isn't all that standard. Yet somehow, the metric system baffles us Yanks.

Wikipedia knows all about Focus engines. You are pretty right about the smallest US Focus engine being the biggest UK engine, so I'd imagine that the 39 mpg Focus is using the wimpiest engine. I'm glad my car has the bigger engine, I need the extra power down here in Tampa, the traffic is nuts. It's pretty much a free-for-all, every man for himself fest here.