GaijinPunch wrote:Let's tone this down a bit and look at it from another angle. Japan is a very "keep to yourself" society. Nobody says hello or good morning in Tokyo until they are 70 years old... by that time, they're just happy to be alive. Japanese are professionals at keeping to themselves. I was on my bike at 8AM w/ an ice coffee. I slipped, went totally horizontal, took an ice coffee shower (thank God it wasn't winter), and not only did 5 people not help... they walked by and didn't even bat a fucking eye. This isn't an isolated incident. The entire culture is based on you being your brothers keeper. In this case, your brother is your entire family, and any kouhai (junior) you take on in some type of professional relationship. No time for the rest. With this historical background I think it's only a matter of time before more people stop making the extra effort it takes to have real relationships.
Yet Japan's marriage decline is a relatively modern phenomenon of recent decades. That historical/cultural background you describe however is not a reflection of attitudes/practices which spontaneously arose in recent decades, their roots go back much further. Another words, modern phenomenon like less people getting married or less children cannot be explained through these types of everyday observations. I will bring up again and again that decreased births are common across the 1st world and decreased marriage is occurring in most countries(Japan is just ahead of the curve), which shows that the factors which influence these declines are not results simply of cultural differences between Japan and everyone else.
GaijinPunch wrote:Hmmm... yeah, can't say I agree. Japan has plenty of land... everybody just wants to live in Tokyo. Land is free when you go 100km from the capital in any direction (until you hit Osaka).
Arable land is what I mentioned. Land suitable for agriculture. In that Japan is quite lacking. Which makes the fact that the population is declining and that the people don't eat big portion sizes(relative to many other countries anyway) a good thing.
GaijinPunch wrote:The doom and gloom from population comes in the fact that taxes aren't raised that will in turn take care of the old. This is obvious and true in any cuntry. It's worse in Japan as this is not a cuntry that has embraced technology. There are 2 or 3 people doing every one persons job. Why? Counter measure to unemployment. Some of these can be hacked off at the expense of "good service" which Japan prides itself on. However, many cumpanies still relay on a very long line of humans doing a computers work. Japan requires overhead... more than it needs. Of course it could wake up and smell it's own shit and streamline everything. That's not going to happen though.
Japan's high standard of living is only maintained for one reason: savings (eg, old money). When that runs out, everyone will be singing a different tune.
Japanese trade has greatly expanded in recent years so they idea that all their success is due to savings doesn't hold up to much scrutiny. Of course, it is true that successes they had in the past have much to do with their ability to cope now. But that's how the manufacturing/technology world works. Countries which move fastest in developing their manufacturing know-how are the ones most likely to also be able to expand later and develop more refined products and processes.
GaijinPunch wrote:Read me. The only reason Japan seems to have stable corporate behavior is b/c it has yet to discover investigative journalism. These mother fuckers are dodgy. Japan has redefined the "old boys club".
My comment was rather vague so I should perhaps refine what I said. I did not mean to suggest corporate fraud and the like never happen in Japan. To try to explain what I had in mind I'll give general examples. For one thing, Japan's economy is not as financialized as the American economy. Parasitic insurance companies and speculators in general simply do not have the same amount of influence that they do in the U.S. or the U.K. for example. I hinted at this earlier when I mentioned healthcare and the heavy regulation the Japanese employ to keep costs low. Incidentally this sort of "inefficiency" is more a problem than over-staffing I would argue(in fact I would go further and say that the type of inefficiencies you describe are almost trade-offs). I could cite extreme examples like the U.S. healthcare system which involves bureaucratic waste on an even greater scale.
Things like the derivative trades and the like did not stem from Japan or anywhere in Asia, they are distinctly Western practices(the Germans will claim it's part of the "Anglo" world but the behavior of their own banks in places like Spain and Greece would indicate this is nonsense). What's more most of the institutions responsible for this behavior have been propped back up and none of the people responsible prosecuted, and instead they are able to carry on doing the same things they were doing before. I don't think there's anything comparable to that in Japan. They had housing bubbles led by heavy speculation, and the result of those was a huge decline in that type of behavior. In the West it is the complete opposite. Bailed out banks are more powerful after crises than they were before.
Japan has also not seen extreme rises in corporates salaries and such(correspondingly Japan also has the highest corporate tax rates). Which, even when it does not necessarily prevent financial fraud and the like, it does reduce the scale of it significantly. With this example my vaguely mentioning "other countries" was misleading as really there is primarily an American problem.
GaijinPunch wrote:Interesting... as I think they are the ones that lobbied to Parliament to intervene and get the yen to a sane level. I would have to go look to find the number but when it was in the low 80s, they stated every time the dollar dropped another yen, the lost a hundred million bucks. I might be off a digit in either direction, but it was quite mind-blowing. Abenomics has at least brought the yen back to a somewhat competitive level (it's still 10% stronger than the median of the last 15 years) but Japan Inc. is getting it's pussy smoked by it's competitors. Japan has no idea how to make an inexpensive product, which is what everyone else is delivering.
The value of a currency and interest rates can crush any industry if allowed to get out of control enough, and they are matters mostly out of the hands of companies. Whether Japanese companies are skilled enough to deliver cheap products is a separate issue from the affect of a strong yen.
As for that actual comment, yes and no. In TV production for example, there is plenty of evidence to back the claim that Japanese products are more expensive and less efficiently produced than many of their competitors. In the production of automobiles though I don't think there is much evidence at all for that claim, just earlier this month Toyota was reporting record profits despite decreased sales. Japanese production processes are often far superior in this area(this has been recognized for a long time now:
http://sloanreview.mit.edu/article/manu ... -industry/ for example) Also by "everyone else" I assume you mean the Koreans, because that's where most of Japan's "low cost" competition comes from.
GaijinPunch wrote:Perhaps, for other countries. But Japan has redefined many things. Shorting Japan has been coined as the "widow maker" trade, yet people have been stating for decades that Japan is going to pop at some point. Nobody knows when is the problem.
If you listen to most economists or credit agencies Japan has been a basket case for about two decades. Of course, the improvements in Japan's trade balance and a lack of decline in living standards may indicate that it says more about those economists and their methods than it does about Japan.
GaijinPunch wrote:Indeed. However, even after a short vacation in Japan one could see signs of over employment. One or maybe two construction workers directing traffic at each construction site. People driving around advertisement cars (just what the city needs). Elevator girls. 2 people at one register. While all this raises employment, it raises the cost. The last 5 years have shown Japan how vital low costs are for their export-driven economy.
I don't think over-employment are the main causes of Japan's rising costs. Not because it doesn't create inefficiencies, it does, but I think the inefficiencies of unemployment are greater as it leads to a decrease in aggregate demand. Also these types of everyday inefficiencies which are easy enough to observe(I've already acknowledged there are tons and tons of inefficiencies in the Japanese business world, I don't think there's really any disagreement there), I think can become overstated when evaluating their impact on the economy as a whole. It's a little like arguing poor service and lower conditions in American restaurants(which is sort of the opposite of Japan's efficiency problems you have described) is a sign of glaring inefficiencies in the U.S. private sector and thus a threat to economic well-being in the future. But it's a question of scale and in large economies these types of inefficiencies are relatively minor.
Incidentally this is really one of the main issues I have with coverage on Japan. People will come up with many criticisms of the way things are done in Japan and those criticisms I don't necessarily disagree with. The problem is that they blow them out of proportion and act like they are A. the causes of problems in Japan such as competitive losses in the private sector or a lack of babies and B. are signs of an impending collapse in the future. But more serious scrutiny will show that much larger world tendencies are the causes of most of these problems and not: old men who can never get fired, bureaucracy, pornography fetishes, touhou, "cultural" reasons, terrible software development practices, the fact that credit cards aren't as much in use, or whatever the new story of the day is. People over-focus on these details and miss the big picture. You can look at any country and observe differences in the way they do things, and among these differences you will undoubtedly find serious inefficiencies. But it does not follow that those particular issues are the causes of most of the society's problems.
Randorama wrote:Of course, we are not even discussing whether every employed citizen can actually survive, even if employed. As long as people work, everything is rosy, I guess.
Japan's living standards are extremely high by all measures.
Skykid wrote: @Wenchang, may I ask are you a Forbes journalist? Based on your previous link to the site, comments, and
this article by the same guy, I can't help but wonder.
No just a plagiarist.
Skykid wrote:Well, Olympus is still afloat, despite the loss-covering scandal and acquisition of several other companies with little real credit: there's some wizardry there, I would have predicted bankruptcy.
Sony though? I think they have a huge amount of competition in all their sectors. Videogaming is probably (assuming) where they're on most solid footing, and this generation stand to do better than the last, but their other consumer enterprises surely have a huge amount of competition, both domestic and abroad. The losses dictate that it's the competition eating into their profits. That's not to say they're going to close, they're an enormous corp with a money pool beyond comprehension, I'm sure, but I'd argue there's a fair amount of jostling occurring in their major markets, and they're not leading anymore. I think they're ranked third for consumer TV's behind two Korean companies, and their shareholders are playing hell over it.
My comment was poorly worded. What I was trying to say is that in Japan(as opposed to the export market), Japanese companies generally do not see a lot of competition from foreign companies, because Japan is highly protectionist. This lack of competition at home(unless of course it's competition from other Japanese companies) gives Japanese corporations an extra cushion. So those Korean companies who are kicking ass in international markets face disadvantages if they try to get a foothold in Japan. Check this story out for example:
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20131124000201
Samsung's marketshare for smartphones is only about 10% in Japan, it's at least double that in most other places. Worldwide Sony's marketshare is quite small in the smartphone market but they're second in Japan. Worldwide, Japanese companies are pretty much a non-entity in terms of smartphone development, but a company like Sony can still eek out a living at home with only Apple outselling them despite the fact that they're still way behind their competitors from a development standpoint(of course here I'm not talking about the production of advanced components or anything like that, their you will find Japanese parts in Apple, Samsung, Sony, and any other smartphone, but that is a different matter). For automobile makers it's even worse(partly because unlike with smartphones, where Japanese companies lack a compelling product, automakers are more than capable) to try to sell in the Japanese market as they're all but prevented from doing so.
Skykid wrote:Yep, we're talking about the same thing. What I was getting at is that outsourcing work for anything leaves a gap domestically in terms of jobs, tax, etc. Just look at Youngstown Ohio - they outsourced everything and left everyone on the breadline.
I don't think that's true. For one thing, Japan could not compete with China in terms of factory jobs even if it wanted to. The difference in population alone provide a serious limit. But more generally, it's common for less desirable jobs to have a harder time attracting domestic employees as living standards rise. The response to this is to get cheap labor from abroad. That's how the world economy works. Also it's not as if Japan is simply losing out here. In fact Japanese companies have been highly involved in the setting up of production lines and factories across Southeast Asia for decades now. There's a whole history of this too, where in the Cold War days, U.S. policymakers keen to build up Japanese production capabilities, first looked at China as the source of demand for Japan's goods, and after the Communist revolution shifted to Korea and Southeast Asia. The Korean War itself actually contributed much to a build up of Japan's industrial activity.
So I think in contrast to the picture you paint, a lot of the stuff going on in China is complimentary to the Japanese. It allows them to produce goods cheaper and it is contributing to the build-up of a middle class to consume exports from Japan. The real damaging competition is the higher-end stuff, Korean cars or Taiwanese semi-conductors for example.
Finally, though Randorama will dismiss the statistics as doctored, there's really not a lot of evidence for Japan losing a high amount of the workforce during this process.
Skykid wrote:That's the great falsehood/mystery when it comes to major economies: being able to simply print currency when in need. I'm not an economic expert, and I appreciate your input, but going really off topic isn't there a danger in simply printing more money? Why are certain countries seemingly unable to print money (I assume Greece's attachment to the EU means they're reliant on Germany and have no central bank?) while others trailing huge debts (USA) can keep injecting new cash flow to prop themselves up in times of financial crisis?
Greece does have to rely on outside institutions to dictate monetary policy. Also it could be argued that QE and other types of actions lead to major fluctuations which are counter to the idea of a fixed-exchange rate. But that doesn't matter since Greece has no control one way or the other.
Inflation is always the constraint if you're talking about increasing the money supply. However, inflation is impacted by a great number of things, so it is not the case for example that any increase in the money supply leads to a corresponding increase in inflation or for that matter that increasing the money supply necessarily even generates a measurable difference in inflation. Japan is a good example here, because they view the opposite, deflation, as a problem, and have been trying to actually increase inflation for over a decade now. In many developed nations anti-inflationary actions have been carried out for so long now, that the threat of inflation has been seriously weakened. But yes, you can't just print infinite money and expect it not to backfire.
I should probably say now that I don't view things like quantitative easing as necessarily "solutions" to a country's financial problems at home(like it doesn't have anything to do with decreasing public debt for example). My tendency is more so to downplay both the positive and negative arguments for these actions.
The best way to actually view "printing money" (which is metaphor really as it can simply be changings #s on a computer) is not anything to do with actual supply but it is an attempt to manipulate the financial system to bring about things like changes in interest rates. Changes in interest rates for example could strengthen exports. But we're talking about very detailed types of manipulations that have to do with how country X's performance is affected by country Y's and Z's and it's not something where there is some simple formula(this also leads to the point that the assumption that there is a natural equilibrium with the money supply which government intervention hampers, when in fact there is no such thing and what monetary policies are most advantageous can be an ever-changing phenomenon). We talk about money as if it's a question of literal supply, but that's not the point. When countries "print money," it's usually not about literally increasing the supply so they have more to spend.