COVID-19 in your part of the world

[GaijinPunch]

New worst thread on shmups!

[MintyTheCat]

Better to read this than invest in cheap conspiracy theories:

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckins ... 25-v3.ashx

[orange808]

Oh goodie!

Powerpoint slides!

https://youtu.be/FX4_DBaYzZU

[ZacharyB]

bollocks

Germany has less chance of parents sharing housing with their children. Testing is also being conducted differently in each nation. You're also comparing numbers fairly early in the process. There's so much going on, there.

I have few doubts that Germany will have better overall outcomes, but I question how large the gap will be.

Furthermore, when the entire ordeal is over with, almost all the deaths will be among people that would have died within a few months, anyhow. So, the "death" totals "from Covid-19" will be inherently misleading.

Kinda like when a country music guy that has been battling lung cancer for years dies "from Covid-19". He may have been in hospice for all we know.

Usually, we say a person dies from "complications of cancer" in this situation; however, it's now fashionable to simply say he was struck down in his prime "from cornavirus"!!!! OMG!!! Ahhh!!!

You have to keep in mind that all of the CoViD-19 infections happening TODAY aren't going to manifest as CoViD-19 cases until 2-14 days LATER. Then, the disease lasts an extra 2-4 weeks, and then, stays contagious even beyond that.

If we were to do nothing, by the time the death numbers were to reach a point where you would say "Oh, um, yeah I guess we should do something now because they're starting to rise beyond what was expected," it would already be 2-14 days too late to stop the infections, and you'd have 2-14 more days of unmitigated growth.

[orange808]

bollocks

Germany has less chance of parents sharing housing with their children. Testing is also being conducted differently in each nation. You're also comparing numbers fairly early in the process. There's so much going on, there.

I have few doubts that Germany will have better overall outcomes, but I question how large the gap will be.

Furthermore, when the entire ordeal is over with, almost all the deaths will be among people that would have died within a few months, anyhow. So, the "death" totals "from Covid-19" will be inherently misleading.

Kinda like when a country music guy that has been battling lung cancer for years dies "from Covid-19". He may have been in hospice for all we know.

Usually, we say a person dies from "complications of cancer" in this situation; however, it's now fashionable to simply say he was struck down in his prime "from cornavirus"!!!! OMG!!! Ahhh!!!

You have to keep in mind that all of the CoViD-19 infections happening TODAY aren't going to manifest as CoViD-19 cases until 2-14 days LATER. Then, the disease lasts an extra 2-4 weeks, and then, stays contagious even beyond that.

If we were to do nothing, by the time the death numbers were to reach a point where you would say "Oh, um, yeah I guess we should do something now because they're starting to rise beyond what was expected," it would already be 2-14 days too late to stop the infections, and you'd have 2-14 more days of unmitigated growth.

Yeah. We can check back in on Italy in 14 days.

Whatever you want.

Doesn't matter what you do or say, nothing will change the facts on mortality.

You lot almost seem to be hoping and praying for a change in the trend to justify your theory, but it's not happening.

[ZacharyB]

Yeah. We can check back in on Italy in 14 days.

Whatever you want.

Doesn't matter what you do or say, nothing will change the facts on mortality.

You lot almost seem to be hoping and praying for a change in the trend to justify your theory, but it's not happening.

The whole point is that we can't wait for something to happen or for trends to manifest. Right?

It's a natural disaster that's: 1. Mediated by our movement and contact; 2. Delayed/restarted again by 2-14 days every time that happens.

If your doctor were to tell you, "your DNA predisposes you towards heart disease based on your cholesterol levels. It might be a good idea to eat better than you're eating now," you might not be able to ward off the impending heart disease, but by controlling your habits, you could make a difference. Maybe 1 or 2, or even 10 years. But those become the most valuable years of your life.

[MintyTheCat]

Yeah. We can check back in on Italy in 14 days.

Whatever you want.

Doesn't matter what you do or say, nothing will change the facts on mortality.

You lot almost seem to be hoping and praying for a change in the trend to justify your theory, but it's not happening.

The whole point is that we can't wait for something to happen or for trends to manifest. Right?

It's a natural disaster that's: 1. Mediated by our movement and contact; 2. Delayed/restarted again by 2-14 days every time that happens.

If your doctor were to tell you, "your DNA predisposes you towards heart disease based on your cholesterol levels. It might be a good idea to eat better than you're eating now," you might not be able to ward off the impending heart disease, but by controlling your habits, you could make a difference. Maybe 1 or 2, or even 10 years. But those become the most valuable years of your life.

The er trend is what we collectively need to understand and come to terms with.

Actually, a lot can change the mortality. I see first order effects in the actual infected and then everything else as a result of people being ill and then the impact it has all together against each country's systems. If you were to become ill early on when your country's health system had sufficient resources to go round then should you remain ill and need intensive care then you are more likely to survive than when your system is overwhelmed with serious cases all at once, and so, it is not a one to one relationship here.

I agree entirely with Zacharyb's sentiments here. Maybe the rest of you lot can start to use your loaves and think your way around this situation. Keep in mind that the Virus does not gives a monkey's about political affiliations and has no interest in philosophy. It is here right now and as such anything else is to shy away from it and behave like a big girl's handbag, and that, gentlemen, is simply not going to cut the mustard.

The only thing that counts: attitude, protocols, management of resources and understanding how it behaves. You can leave your political dogma and cheap and pretty much unsubstantiated conspiracy theories behind for now.

[MintyTheCat]

Oh goodie!

Powerpoint slides!

I think that more over you simply don't believe statistics - an issue that many in this thread seem to share.

[orange808]

Wanting to make decisions based on data and weigh the costs isn't inherently "political"
As if proclaiming that we must spare no expense to help sick, old, weak, and doomed people hobble along for a week or two more isn't a f*cking political statement. lmao

Yeah, check the politics at the door. Okay. You go first. You first.

Nice double standard you have, there.

....

[orange808]

Oh goodie!

Powerpoint slides!

I think that more over you simply don't believe statistics - an issue that many in this thread seem to share.

On the contrary, I trust them. You have problems with sample size, bias, and you don't ask probing questions.

My "problem" is that I am willing to discuss what the price tag for preserving a few weeks of life should be.

[GaijinPunch]

My "problem" is that I am willing to discuss what the price tag for preserving a few weeks of life should be.

On which page in the user manual does set the limit for age?

[orange808]

My "problem" is that I am willing to discuss what the price tag for preserving a few weeks of life should be.

On which page in the user manual does set the limit for age?

A proper universal health care system would save untold lives. Young lives with potential productive decades of time. I support truly compassionate policies that save lives.

That's an investment that makes sense and it doesn't involve pushing people into destitution for little or no gain.

Also, this is about old age. If we want to beat mortality itself and the decline of our immune systems, we won't do it on the couch hoarding tissue.

[BulletMagnet]

So much for supporting the front lines. I can only hope that someone out there bangs the drum like hell over the fact that we're already experiencing "care rationing" (and/or "death panels") as a result of this sort of outlook...in addition, that is, to the extra-profitable forms of each we've been practicing all along.

Off to the side, a dumb question: I've seen a bunch of charity things pop up asking for donations to help doctors and others fighting the outbreak, almost always prominently claiming that your money will help to get masks and other supplies to them. Maybe my impressions have been off, but at least here in the USA the refrain has been that docs and nurses can't get ahold of these items not primarily because they (or, more accurately, purchasers acting on their behalf) can't afford them but because they aren't available, period - apparently producers and procurers are both already scrambling to meet demand (some in more self-interested manners than others), so I've been trying to figure out how exactly raw dollars, as opposed to farther-reaching structural changes to how this stuff is produced, distributed and stockpiled, are supposed to help with this particular problem at the moment.

[Specineff]

So much for supporting the front.

Alteon's Facebook page is suddenly not accessible to the general public, for some reason.

[quash]

The only thing that counts: attitude, protocols, management of resources and understanding how it behaves. You can leave your political dogma and cheap and pretty much unsubstantiated conspiracy theories behind for now.

This is rich coming from someone who takes unrelated political potshots at every given opportunity, who said to focus on a single data point, and extrapolates unsubstantiated claims from data while trying to pass them off as fact, ignoring questions when they're brought up.

Sorry, but you're a classic case of someone who simply isn't as smart as he thinks he is.

I've been trying to figure out how exactly raw dollars, as opposed to farther-reaching structural changes to how this stuff is produced, distributed and stockpiled, are supposed to help with this particular problem at the moment.

They won't. Hence why Trump took the step of invoking wartime powers to force domestic production of the things we need that China has been making for 15+ years now.

Besides, even if there were somehow a shortage of money to get these things made and transported to where they need to be, let the federal government cry "uncle" before you even start thinking about pitching in yourself. Chances are it won't get to that point, so in the meantime the best thing to do is to keep yourself in order by doing what you can to slow the spread. Unless you're a first responder or activated Guardsman or something, in which case you are basically screwed.

[cj iwakura]

So much for supporting the front lines. I can only hope that someone out there bangs the drum like hell over the fact that we're already experiencing "care rationing" (and/or "death panels") as a result of this sort of outlook...in addition, that is, to the extra-profitable forms of each we've been practicing all along.

Off to the side, a dumb question: I've seen a bunch of charity things pop up asking for donations to help doctors and others fighting the outbreak, almost always prominently claiming that your money will help to get masks and other supplies to them. Maybe my impressions have been off, but at least here in the USA the refrain has been that docs and nurses can't get ahold of these items not primarily because they (or, more accurately, purchasers acting on their behalf) can't afford them but because they aren't available, period - apparently producers and procurers are both already scrambling to meet demand (some in more self-interested manners than others), so I've been trying to figure out how exactly raw dollars, as opposed to farther-reaching structural changes to how this stuff is produced, distributed and stockpiled, are supposed to help with this particular problem at the moment.

Always always always take charities with a grain of salt, never donate unless you know they're legit, because most aren't, or simply don't know what they're doing.

[BulletMagnet]

let the federal government cry "uncle" before you even start thinking about pitching in yourself.

To be clear, there are also fundraisers to help people who are jobless or otherwise struggling financially during the outbreak, which makes more sense off the cuff, but I'm definitely skeptical of anyone who claims they can help get equipment to the front lines until someone can explain to me exactly how they're able to do that.

That being said, I would also hope that this state of affairs might set off a few light bulbs when it comes to "farther-reaching structural changes" when it comes to economic matters in general; it boggles the mind that in a society as disparate in terms of wealth as ours, those who have made a killing off the rest of us for so long are hardly being asked to contribute anything to the cause, and that the "greed is good" mantra that effectively prohibits businesses from acting in anyone's interest but their own isn't being well and truly stretched out on the rack. I believe that some states and local governments, plus a few private actors, are attempting to tell landlords, lenders and others in such prime positions to give people a break until things calm down, though my mind can't help but also drift to the handful of billionaires who have pledged to give their fortunes away after they die; are any of them doing anything significant now?

On that note...

Hence why Trump took the step of invoking wartime powers to force domestic production of the things we need that China has been making for 15+ years now.

If what I read is correct, Trump has so far only invoked the Defense Production Act to compel GM to manufacture ventilators...which they were already planning to do, but apparently not big/fast enough for his liking. It also appears that he's been under pressure to apply the act more widely for some time now, but has repeatedly downplayed the idea because states should be on their own/we've already got enough volunteers/that'd turn us into Venezuela; moreover, one of the provisions of the act (which is already widely invoked thousands of times annually by the military) allows the President to compel manufacturers already creating items we need to prioritize the national interest, which certainly sounds like something we should be applying to the ventilator maker I linked to in my previous post which even now opts to make and sell higher-cost models (as opposed to the cheaper, more practical ones it got taxpayer money to develop) to other countries, and the countless other entities surely taking the same carnivorous tack it is.

Did I leave out/mess up anything major?

[vol.2]

Infection in Baltimore seems to be pretty low and stable. Maryland as a whole is fairly high, owing to its proximity and relationship with DC. The lion's share of the cases here are focused in the parts of PG and Montgomery Co. that adjoin the District and act as it's bedroom community. Everywhere else is pretty low.

My life is okay. I'm lucky enough to be able to work from home. I'm optimistic about the future still because anything else is going to make me depressed and screw that.

This is the third disaster I've been through. The first was living in New York during 9/11. That was nuts; I watched one of the Towers go down. There was smoke all over the city for months and the situation impacted everything about my life for years.

The second was the earthquake and resulting Tsunami in Japan 2011. I had moved to Japan with my wife at the time and we were there for that. I was living in Tokyo, but it was close enough. The whole city was on lockdown for a long time. I was at work when it happened and felt the quake. We went outside to count heads and I could see the ground heaving up and moving like it was liquid. After that, I had to walk home down the middle of the highway. It took 9 hours and I had a lot of weight on my back because I wasn't sure if I would be able to come back.

Weird times all around. This one is very different because the whole world is in on it. Everybody gets screwed by this one. (well, except if you have the special financial buffer allowed by mega-wealth)

[Ddshot]

It’s getting pretty scary hear in uk now 560deaths in the last 24hrs,I expect what happen in Italy and Spain will happen here,the scariest thing in the uk is shocking survival rates of people who end up in intesive care just take a look at the stats on worldomiter,something close to like 2800 dead and 160 recovery.also there’s a lot of young dieing who had no previous health conditions.this is going to be around for a long time I suspect most the year,remember the people dieing now were exposed to the virus 6-7 weeks ago!stay safe everyone[THUMBS UP SIGN]


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Steamflogger Boss]

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/12 ... 5208125440

[GaijinPunch]

This is the third disaster I've been through. The first was living in New York during 9/11. That was nuts; I watched one of the Towers go down. There was smoke all over the city for months and the situation impacted everything about my life for years.

The second was the earthquake and resulting Tsunami in Japan 2011. I had moved to Japan with my wife at the time and we were there for that. I was living in Tokyo, but it was close enough. The whole city was on lockdown for a long time. I was at work when it happened and felt the quake. We went outside to count heads and I could see the ground heaving up and moving like it was liquid. After that, I had to walk home down the middle of the highway. It took 9 hours and I had a lot of weight on my back because I wasn't sure if I would be able to come back.

Weird times all around. This one is very different because the whole world is in on it. Everybody gets screwed by this one. (well, except if you have the special financial buffer allowed by mega-wealth)

While economically this is bad, the tsunami definitely warmed me up for this. That was way weirder / intense, IMHO. Basically the economy was shit for 2 years leading up to it, then that. Add in the fact there was an earthquake basically every day for a month didn't help. Like a moron I stayed in my building until the first aftershock and was like, "fuck this". Like an asshole, I had a bicycle and passed about 500 cars on my ride home, which was only 6km. Seems like an eternity ago but I remember it well.

[vol.2]

While economically this is bad, the tsunami definitely warmed me up for this. That was way weirder / intense, IMHO. Basically the economy was shit for 2 years leading up to it, then that. Add in the fact there was an earthquake basically every day for a month didn't help. Like a moron I stayed in my building until the first aftershock and was like, "fuck this". Like an asshole, I had a bicycle and passed about 500 cars on my ride home, which was only 6km. Seems like an eternity ago but I remember it well.

I stayed in the same building for another six months. It was absolutely traumatizing.
What people don't know is just how many earthquakes there were. It wasn't one everyday, it was one every 6 hours that registered as a 6, 7 or 8 for at least two weeks, and then in greater intervals for two months.

So far, I completely agree that it was subjectively worse. What I'm most concerned about here with this thing is what's going to come after and how far things will go. Baltimore is a tinderbox under normal circumstances. If the shit really hits the fan, you can expect flames. Not to mention what the world economy is going to do after this. Who knows?

[quash]

Did I leave out/mess up anything major?

Not as far as I can tell, no. I do fully expect Trump to expand the scope of this however, as it's becoming increasingly clear that what we're doing now is simply not enough.

https://twitter.com/bpolitics/status/12 ... 5208125440

Some of those replies are gold. Now how much longer until we acknowledge that at the very least, China knowingly let the virus leave their borders? Because you have to have the deduction skills of a four year old to not see that.

[orange808]

Hilarious!

China didn't quarantine enough for you, but you refuse to shut down New York.

Okay.. chuckle.

Sounds like you're grinding personal axes to me.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/wor ... 938374001/

We can't compete with that.

[quash]

I would personally like to see NYC quarantined, but the chances of that happening seem pretty slim. Chalk it up to a difference in our mode of governance.

China, on the other hand, has no excuse. They don't have to pretend to be liberal or care about rights, but they let people come and go during the lunar new year anyways.

Like I said before: this is a perfect opportunity for China to position themselves as a world leader, head and shoulders above even the US, as long as you choose to ignore how this crisis started to begin with.

[orange808]

I would personally like to see NYC quarantined, but the chances of that happening seem pretty slim. Chalk it up to a difference in our mode of governance.

China, on the other hand, has no excuse. They don't have to pretend to be liberal or care about rights, but they let people come and go during the lunar new year anyways.

Like I said before: this is a perfect opportunity for China to position themselves as a world leader, head and shoulders above even the US, as long as you choose to ignore how this crisis started to begin with.

Diseases happen. I'm not about the finger pointing.

I'm also not certain that the qualification for world leader status should hinge on their ability to handle human beings like animals.

I just dislike hearing that China didn't do enough quarantine from people that are doing less.

[BulletMagnet]

I do fully expect Trump to expand the scope of this however, as it's becoming increasingly clear that what we're doing now is simply not enough.

As much as I would love to take this occasion to finally agree with you on something, based on what we've seen so far I find it incredibly difficult to believe that he and his party all of a sudden aren't willing to kill as many people as they need to just so they never find themselves having to admit that sometimes more government action can actually be a good idea, nor that their base ever plan to emit a peep of protest to this end.

Now how much longer until we acknowledge that at the very least, China knowingly let the virus leave their borders?

Occam's Razor tells me that, like us, China refused to take aggressive enough measures early enough on to contain the virus because doing so would make things too haaaaard for the rich, but then again that tack doesn't let you have yet another thrilling round of Red-Pill Mad Libs with the MEDICAL Deep State.

[orange808]

If a major outbreak started in the US, it couldn't be contained and it wouldn't be contained. It seems awfully dangerous and reckless to start pointing fingers.

Like the turtle mocking mister rabbit for losing a foot race to the cheetah. Doesn't matter what trainers you put on, mister turtle, you can't move fast enough.

Best to keep our mouths shut this time.

[quash]

Diseases happen. I'm not about the finger pointing.

They tend to happen in China pretty frequently. Regardless...

I just dislike hearing that China didn't do enough quarantine from people that are doing less.

The largest annual migration of people on the planet every single year is the lunar new year holiday. At worst, China knew of this virus in November and covered it up. At best, they found out the hard way in January and scrambled to mount a response. Either way, they had ample time to shut down airports and prevent this from going global. Would it have come at an economic cost? Certainly, which is why they didn't do it. It's also why they're obviously lying about their death toll and doing everything they can to deflect and distract from the fact that this started in their country. They've been manipulating this situation from the moment they knew about it. The only way it's going to pay off for them in the long term is if we don't get to pointing the finger at the clearly guilty party and make it clear that there will be consequences for this irresponsibility, regardless of intent.

As for their response domestically, yeah, it's been pretty strict in the most effected areas. I'm still fairly certain you wouldn't want to be welded into your apartment and left to starve, so be careful what you wish for.

I really want to give you the benefit of the doubt and say you're simply being naive, but I've dealt with a few too many CCP bootlickers in my time to let my guard down.

As much as I would love to take this occasion to finally agree with you on something, based on what we've seen so far I find it incredibly difficult to believe that he and his party all of a sudden aren't willing to kill as many people as they need to just so they never find themselves having to admit that sometimes more government action can actually be a good idea, nor that their base ever plan to emit a peep of protest to this end.

As much as Trump is a New York liberal billionaire boomer, he's also in a scenario where businesses are being forcibly shut down by the government. At this point, he's not going to be left with much in the way of choice. I have to say that I'm pleasantly surprised at the response so far, even if it came too late, so maybe this is an optimism bias on my part. I still think the assistance should be a non-means tested lump sum and that there should be more aggressive domestic production efforts, but if this drags on for much longer I think both will eventually become a reality.

[vol.2]

If a major outbreak started in the US, it couldn't be contained and it wouldn't be contained. It seems awfully dangerous and reckless to start pointing fingers.

Like the turtle mocking mister rabbit for losing a foot race to the cheetah. Doesn't matter what trainers you put on, mister turtle, you can't move fast enough.

Best to keep our mouths shut this time.

you're arguing with someone that uses Rorschach as an avatar, called trump a liberal and is pleasantly surprised at his reaction. let's not forget how divided this country still is on... things.

seriously tho, i'm sick of hearing people go on about chino virus. last time i looked, they been figuring that shit out. it's here in the states that people can't stay at home or take things seriously, and it was clearly the government's responsibility to send the correct message early and shut things down.

how is that we are so conveniently forgetting that our current president dissolved the infectious disease task force assembled by Obama and didn't form another one. a group whose specific task it was to identify these kinds of risk early.

https://apnews.com/ce014d94b64e98b7203b873e56f80e9a

it is absolutely the fault of the current administration that things got this bad in the US. no question.