What are the thoughts on Tariff's from the American side here?

[GaijinPunch]

Eh, you seemed really aggressively pushing the idea that 2007 was some kind of anomaly, and the next recession wouldn't be nearly as bad.

Well, that's how it turned out. Go look at an S&P 500 chart -- we have had two already since then (if you include 2020's blip) that were nowhere nearly as bad as 2008. (I have no idea where you're getting 2007 from). Considering 2008 levels hadn't been reached since The Great Depression, that is not such a hot take that the next one(s) would be simmered down versions, nor would we hit one as bad for decades. But we don't exactly speak the same language so, not weird that we don't always understand each other.

Having said that, believe it or not, the market generally does learn it's lessons. I don't think there will be any recession caused the same way the 2008 crisis happened. New and inventive ways? Definitely. The closest repeat of history I can think of is the AI bubble (if it turns out to be one) compared to the .com bubble, but even then it feels we're far less retarded about AI as we were about the internet in general in 2000.

Anyway, to sum up, I generally assuming "bad shit will happen" every 10 years or so and it will reflect on the economy, and I tell young people as such. Just in my adult life, we had .com bubble / 2001 -> 2008 crisis which bled into the earthquake / tsunami -> covid money which gave us the fucked 2022, 2023 market. I do not subscribe to the Chicken Littles (that are rampant tech circles) that say the stock market will drop 80%, but the three aforementioned events fisted me in the ass.

Fast forward ~ten years and here we are, some people talking about the possibility that we're on the brink of a second great depression, and you've just said 'not soon'.

10 years from what exactly? And, what people are saying this? And why should anyone fucking care? People say shit about the market all the time, and collectively they're only right about 50% of the time. Literally a coin toss. Go read Robert Kiyosaki's many tweets about how awful everything "is going to be" (and he's sold books on the topic). Then calculate all the money you would have lost had you listened to him.

We have a sitting president that's 35% of the way to being a fascist dictator after only a couple of months, and they're doing the This Is Fine dog thing. Perhaps... things will not be fine???

Who is saying this? People I know most definitely are not. Dick heads on the right, sure, but they're not exactly in my social cricles.

[To Far Away Times]

I am also questioning conservative beliefs on what a desirable trade balance even looks like. Trump views it as a zero sum game. The goal being to export more than you import.

When you have wealthy countries trading with poorer countries, doesn’t it make sense that you’d import more than you’d export? You… have more money to buy things.

[orange808]

What the fuck is a successful service economy?

The USA. Microsoft, Netflix, Meta, Google, Apple (partially), Amazon, Cloudflare, Uber even SpaceX all offer services that almost every person in the first world is paying for. Even the gaming industry counts in some capacity.

Most Americans don't work in Silicon Valley, where there's money to be made from those companies. Those jobs are hardware and software jobs; those are not service jobs.

You named one. Amazon is retail and it's definitely the service industry. It's also well known that Amazon is bad place to work.

Billionaires pocketing money doesn't create a successful economy from most people's point of view. Trump didn't get elected by accident--and every single person carrying around your smug lie about the "service economy" was a coconspirator. We can debate the stupidity of voters, but you're pretending their problems don't exist.

They asked Obama to go after the billionaires first, by the way. He did nothing.

Finally, services only pay a living wage if the economy creates enough money to pay a living wage. It's the same reason poor nations aren't all creating booming wealthy nations walking each other's dogs.

[BulletMagnet]

So I believe that Trumps arguments are only a half truths for tariffs.

You're still giving Trump, and the American right, way, way too much benefit of the doubt.

Trump's official stated justification for the tariffs is a "national emergency" over the amount of fentanyl supposedly coming in over the border, though they've also been floated as an offset - at the direct expense of the larger tax base, naturally - for the GOP's latest proposed round of upper-end tax cuts (which is garbage, as even the most optimistic estimates conclude that trillions will be added to the deficit); when the Dems set a deadline to get Congressional Republicans on the record about this - repeat, not even trying to stop the tariffs, just to get the people singing their praises to do so in an official capacity - the latter responded by refusing to acknowledge what a "day" is. You don't know how much I wish I was joking.

There is no "half truth" here. The purpose of the tariffs, like everything else this administration is doing, is to further consolidate more wealth and power into fewer hands. We are not being protected. We are being skinned alive.

[neorichieb1971]

There is no "half truth" here. The purpose of the tariffs, like everything else this administration is doing, is to further consolidate more wealth and power into fewer hands. We are not being protected. We are being skinned alive.

My son now lives with his brother in TN after finding FL too expensive to even afford rent. The conpiracy side of me believes that inflation is used as a tool to stay no1 against the likes of China. China is just booming right now there is a railway station been built in 9 hours over there just recently, a feat that takes about 18 months in the UK and I believe the USA is even slower. Lets face it the $36T debt margins we are seeing in the USA are largely due to government deficits. The voters in the USA would never vote in a President that says "Taxes are going up". It's not right to put the money in the hands of the few that is a serious misjudgement of a solution. Billionaires should make money from working class pushing it upwards, not putting in cheat systems. Those Billionaires should let the system play its natural course. If Canada can choose to buy its own product then so can the USA. Wasn't the reason product was made outside the USA to make Billionaires richer by means of cheaper labor and raw materials being local to said countries? It seems with Billionaires its a win win, win win situation. When the win win started to produce threats to their profits Trump comes along with market manipulation that gives them another round of win win. Its just ridiculous.

The world is a complicated place now. You have countries with zero % tax by default. You have PLC's in Luxembourg, almost zero % corperation tax in Ireland, you have offshore working with AI around the corner. Instead of Tariffs you need a monetary system reformation. Yes, if the current monetary system shows signs of wealth disparity issues, then the balance should be addressed by government. But not by protecting those it favours, but by protecting those who are suffering. Tariffs is not the answer for that. Just common sense policies. Forgive me for saying this, but from my perspective the USA is been running on exclusive privileges for 5 or 6 decades now. Petro dollar and reserve currency being the $ have been accepted by others for this time without question. If another country is an economic threat to the USA, only God knows why there is $36T debt in the USA. Those privileges alone should have kept the balance in check.

To summarize I believe the USA had the privilege, still screwed up royally and now wants further privileges to correct a wrong that was caused by greed in the first place. Not many care what Trump says, but they do care what he is doing. His actions are louder than his words and his words are sounding more and more like broken promises each and every day.

This is a great watch - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hycoCYenXls&t=491s

[orange808]

Nothing is being "corrected" at all. Trump is stomping the accelerator on the status quo and (simultaneously) making it even worse.

[PC Engine Fan X!]

In response to Trump's 25% tariffs increase, on the American news airwaves just mentioned earlier today 3-28-2025, luxury auto manufacturer Ferrari SPA has announced that a 10% price hike on all cars sold on April 1st, 2025 and thereafter. Of course with the ultra-rich clientele, paying a 10% price increase is just "mere peanuts/chump change" as it can be easily afforded no matter the costs associated with buying one (assuming if you're willing to wait two to two and half years on the Ferrari "waiting list" to buy one as it's well-known that a Ferrari car is "custom-built" to the buyer's tastes/desires). So be it.

I suppose exotic car manufacturer Lamborghini (as part of Automobil Lamborghini SPA Ltd.) will likely do the same to survive/remain in business as it's part of the Volkswagen Group conglomerate anyways.

PC Engine Fan X ^_~

[Lemnear]

I share a phrase by Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850)

Spoiler

just to say..

[neorichieb1971]

Japan is going mental over tariffs. Saying that no exceptions is not fair as Japan pays the highest salaries, opened the most factories and employs the most people in the USA (in the auto sector?)

A typical scenario when making deals under one administration only to have it rebutted under another. I believe Japan said 1 million jobs in the USA, thats a lot of gambling colleratoral to fight back with.

[vol.2]

The tariffs are insane. Trump is obviously losing his mind and we all should be very very worried. I don't mean from the perspective that he has bad plans for the country or from any larger view of the political situation. I think we should all be very worried because we have an old man with (early stage?) dementia in charge of the country and he is extremely unpredictable. As someone who grew up during the end of the Cold War era, I am having terrible flashbacks to the potential threat of a madman pushing a button that can end the world.

[D]

The tariffs are insane. Trump is obviously losing his mind and we all should be very very worried. I don't mean from the perspective that he has bad plans for the country or from any larger view of the political situation. I think we should all be very worried because we have an old man with (early stage?) dementia in charge of the country and he is extremely unpredictable. As someone who grew up during the end of the Cold War era, I am having terrible flashbacks to the potential threat of a madman pushing a button that can end the world.

Didn't you just describe your previous president? Or that was the joke perhaps. Good one!

[Sima Tuna]

Market cratering right now. Are we winning yet?

[vol.2]

Didn't you just describe your previous president? Or that was the joke perhaps. Good one!

Oh Biden was definitely losing it. This is surely the moment of the enfeebled boomers clinging to power, but that doesn't change how serious things have become and how out of touch Trump is with reality at this point.

I'm glad you can find humor in the situation. I am not there.

[BryanM]

we have an old man with (early stage?) dementia in charge of the country and he is extremely unpredictable.

Eh, Elon Musk isn't that old. Though the drugs do make him look that way...

The core problem really is about how we currently have a dictator. It's rare for one man to have this much power in our country, normally the illuminati is smart enough to want to share power with each other and pay the 'riot tax'. That they've agreed to descend into fascism is completely fucked for the rest of us.

The whole neoliberal thing where they hate the idea of workers democratically owning their own labor lest it lead to 'tyranny', while at the same time contradictory materially preferring dictators is just one of those huge loads of bullshit. Yeah they sure hate tyranny while they... support complete and total tyranny. They're fucking monsters - they're just like Donald and Hillary and Bill and David Brock. They'd say anything and everything to get someone to drop their pants, they don't believe in anything except for having more and everyone else having fucking nothing.

Saw a comment section full of complete pieces of shit going 'Kamala doesn't owe anyone anything.' Yeah, that's a great strategy. Create leaders that don't care about anyone else, seems like a winning message for the team that's supposedly supposed to be against Hitler, against rape dungeons, and against gas chambers.

Fuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuck

[BulletMagnet]

I think we should all be very worried because we have an old man with (early stage?) dementia in charge of the country and he is extremely unpredictable.

To repurpose what I've said elsewhere on here, don't be afraid of him, be afraid of the literal millions of people who are not only willing but eager to indulge his flights of fancy for their own ends; to reiterate something else I've previously uttered, he's already in no uncertain terms declared the separation of powers null and void, simply maintaining that the other branches of government serve at his whim, and have no authority to check him. For this he should have immediately been impeached and removed from office; that's literally what the provision exists for. But it won't happen, because half of Congress is too craven to so much as suggest it and the other is openly gargling Trump's balls.

What really worries me is what'll happen if/when he goes through with his threats to invade Greenland/Canada/etc. - right then and there, depending on who obeys and who refuses, we'll find out precisely how much of our military is manifestly unworthy of the uniform.

[IrkenLurker]

I haven't read everything written so far, but my understanding of tariffs is that countries can benefit from them in a few specific ways.

National security in that it encourages the US to produce its own goods so that in times of war or stress between nations, they're not dependent on others. Infant industry, which is to say that it attempts to protect an industry like computer chips, car manufacturing, or oil drilling so that it can get off the ground and benefit from economics of scale, experience, and capital investments until it can be competitive internationally. Retaliation, which seemingly is the reason Trump does it, it can be a negative spiral like during the Great Depression but generally raising tariffs is a way to coerce nations to work together by threatening tariffs rather than say, war, invasion, etc. which are intended to be temporary and conditional on the other nations' behaviors. Lastly, as an alternative method of tax collecting, as some economists would argue that it doesn't necessarily matter whether you tax income, imports, or wealth as long as you do it in an agreeable way, and for that matter taxing imports has benefits over taxing income or consumption generally because it can give more control a nation has on its balance of trade and what its population consumes. However, I wasn't the best at macroeconomics so I can't say much confidently about the balance of trade.

It's also the case that nations and their leaders work by emergent methods, which is to say let relatively random actions work out what's best kind of like evolution. While economists might recommend A or B, the fact is that the population, the people in power, and those elected just do whatever they do, and we see the resulting outcomes as what ends up working or not. I've yet to see any effect of Trump's policies in my own life, which is why I hesitate to say anything bad or good about them.

[neorichieb1971]

I haven't read everything written so far, but my understanding of tariffs is that countries can benefit from them in a few specific ways.

It can help in many ways, but timing of them is just as important. Americans are struggling so those tariffs will be on items they buy as necessities. The tariffs on not just on private jets and yachts that cost 100 million plus, they are on food items, vehicles, energy and raw materials to make things. Trump puts the blame on the national debt but in reality it is the past governments of the past 25 years that have accumulated most of that debt, not the people themselves. The people are partly to blame because they kept on voting the low tax party at a time when the governments were spending the most. There is also 1 question that nobody has asked, what will Trump do with all these reciepts?

Americans don't realize it but China holds 100's of billions of USA debt making 5% a year which funds the red Chinese army, so if a war broke out the planes, bullets, tanks and ships they will fight would be partially funded by USA dollars and that is a problem. But thats the price you pay for cheap labor and products from China. Because in the past 25 years China has been using that money to buy gold among other things which is currently trading at near $3000 an ounce which is alot more than China bought it for. So in a way I see the need for tariffs, but its just really bad timing for the American people.

To be fair its bad timing for everyone. Since the internet became a vehicle for digital money transfer those folk who got in first are just vacuuming all the money out of the system. The people who make money online are making more money than people with actual jobs and that is the problem with society today that your trashman, nurse, bus driver and fast food restaurant person can't even make enough money to put a roof on their head.

[vol.2]

your trashman, nurse, bus driver and fast food restaurant person can't even make enough money to put a roof on their head.

The essential problem is of course that we have a huge wage gap in the US that has steadily grown since the 1970s. People in higher paying jobs having the power to pay themselves more and more while setting the wages for the lower wage jobs lower and lower when measured against inflation. The world looks at the US and sees that we are collectively "rich," and yet that belies the conditions that such a large part of the country lives in. And this condition is a cyclical one that is tremendously difficult to climb out of and become upwardly mobile. Yes, some people manage it, and those that do work very hard, but most people just work very hard and never get anywhere. The lie of the american dream has always been that hard work will result in success.

This, in itself, is the greatest argument for a more robust social services system that would remove the stress of health care, educational opportunities and public transit from those that don't have the means. A civilized society takes care of its people ahead of everything else. The US is barbarous by comparison.

[PC Engine Fan X!]

your trashman, nurse, bus driver and fast food restaurant person can't even make enough money to put a roof on their head.

The essential problem is of course that we have a huge wage gap in the US that has steadily grown since the 1970s. People in higher paying jobs having the power to pay themselves more and more while setting the wages for the lower wage jobs lower and lower when measured against inflation. The world looks at the US and sees that we are collectively "rich," and yet that belies the conditions that such a large part of the country lives in. And this condition is a cyclical one that is tremendously difficult to climb out of and become upwardly mobile. Yes, some people manage it, and those that do work very hard, but most people just work very hard and never get anywhere. The lie of the american dream has always been that hard work will result in success.

This, in itself, is the greatest argument for a more robust social services system that would remove the stress of health care, educational opportunities and public transit from those that don't have the means. A civilized society takes care of its people ahead of everything else. The US is barbarous by comparison.

Here in California, last year on April 1st, the law went into effect of California fast food employees earning $20.00 usd an hour (when the current California minimum wage is locked in at $16.50 an hour). Sure enough on April 1st, 2024, California fast food owners/franchisees had to increase the overall prices of the entire fast food menu items to offset paying their employees the $20 per hour (not to mention that a typical McDonald's restaurant drive-through used to open up for business at 4am but nowadays, it's now open for business at 5am instead). It is what it is in the end. I've yet to see any other of the 49 states match or even eclipse the California fast food employee earning $20 an hour these days (it's no secret that fast food management are the ones whom are guaranteed a solid 40 work week whereas with lowly fast food employee, there's no guarantee that they'll even be assigned 40 hours a week -- more likely less than that for sure, especially in California).

PC Engine Fan X! ^_~

[orange808]

Here in California, last year on April 1st, the law went into effect of California fast food employees earning $20.00 usd an hour (when the current California minimum wage is locked in at $16.50 an hour). Sure enough on April 1st, 2024, California fast food owners/franchisees had to increase the overall prices of the entire fast food menu items to offset paying their employees the $20 per hour (not to mention that a typical McDonald's restaurant drive-through used to open up for business at 4am but nowadays, it's now open for at 5am instead). It is what it is in the end.

PC Engine Fan X! ^_~

God forbid a rich fucker ever takes a paycut.

Wage cuts are for brown people and white trash. Stagnant wages paired with inflation has created decades of pay cuts. God forbid the cunts that pocketed the money they stole from workers give back any of the cash they pilfered.

[BulletMagnet]

In case anyone needs a reminder of just how much serious thought Trump has put into these tariffs, he's most recently declared that a big part of the reason he's targeted Canada so harshly is not because he wants to stop all the fentanyl supposedly coming illegally over the border from up north, but wants to make sure the smugglers somehow can't skimp out on the fees they're already, by definition, not paying. And he's done so twice now.

I'll repeat myself: we are not being protected in any capacity. We are being very deliberately skinned alive.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

he's most recently declared that a big part of the reason he's targeted Canada so harshly is not because he wants to stop all the fentanyl supposedly coming illegally over the border from up north

But god forbid we'd like to stop the drug smuggling that's actually happening from the USA into Canada, not to mention the gun smuggling which then allows various gangs to arm themselves, which is why we've seen such an alarming increase in shootings in Ontario.

The USA's unwillingness to accept that actions they take can affect other people in unintended and unpredictable ways seems to be central to their core philosophy, to the detriment of the rest of the world. The USA still hasn't wrangled with its love affair of gun ownership without any safety training requirements despite a long, sordid history of mass shootings. Pretending there's no problem and hoping it goes away seems to be an American pastime.

The US Department of Health and Human Services recently pulled vital funding: "The COVID-19 pandemic is over, and HHS will no longer waste billions of taxpayer dollars responding to a non-existent pandemic that Americans moved on from years ago."

These kinds of blatant lies (how is a pandemic both "non-existent" and declared "over"?) spit in the face of millions of dead, and millions more healthcare workers traumatized by their country's ineptitude and inaction on a preventable disease that was allowed to grip a nation thanks to the spread of misinformation about basic respiratory infectious control measures and vaccinations.

This should be the kind of wildly irresponsible insanity from an official serving in a public capacity that makes people immediately reach for torches and pitchforks, yet here we are with the Trump admin still suffering absolutely zero consequences and being cheered on by half the country.

[ryu]

(how is a pandemic both "non-existent" and declared "over"?)

Hate to defend them but I think that was meant as in "The pandemic is now over, so it's non-existent (existed in the past) and we can pull funding".

[vol.2]

The USA's unwillingness to accept that actions they take can affect other people in unintended and unpredictable ways seems to be central to their core philosophy, to the detriment of the rest of the world. The USA still hasn't wrangled with its love affair of gun ownership without any safety training requirements despite a long, sordid history of mass shootings. Pretending there's no problem and hoping it goes away seems to be an American pastime.

I would prefer maybe not being lumped in with those people. It's also somewhat important to remember that "half the country" also doesn't tell a particularly accurate picture. They are a highly motivated and fanatical group that has taken over our government, and I don't believe for a second that half the people (only the true MAGA) who voted for Trump would have done so if they believed what has happened was going to happen (in spite of the obvious warning signs).

Things are going to keep getting worse for everyone over here, and for everyone in the world that is effected by what's going on over here until things get so bad that there has to be some kind of conflict. I am (and I hope many others are) pretty nervous about what's going to happen when the national guard or the military gets called in to respond to the inevitable riots and so forth. There's going to be some pretty serious divisions over here.

What's more, I am sure that the current administration knows how "actions they take" will "affect other people" and they either don't care or are glad for it. They are not "america first" because that would entail a healthy relationship with other countries. They are "me first," and they believe that is the ultimate and final incarnation of the american dream.

[brokenhalo]

Trade imbalances. This dumb mfer still thinks that trade imbalances are a tariff against the US. Corporations offshoring manufacturing to lower wage countries already hurts the US by killing jobs. Instead of Trump punishing the companies, or using a carrot to bring jobs back, he's punishing consumers. And all you have to do is look at his tariffs on Lesotho to see how poorly thought out this whole scheme was. I've often wondered how you could possibly bankrupt a casino. A business wholly intended to turn people upside down and shake every dollar out of their pockets. This is how- he has no grasp on reality and can not even begin to comprehend any problem more complex than 2+2=4. And no one around him can (or wants to) sit him down and explain why he's wrong.

[Lord British]

I think they're tarrific

[vol.2]

I think they're tarrific

GTFOOH

[orange808]

The pandemic? When nature came for the olds and you gave up so much to save them? How's that working out for you? ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯ Did you think they would thank you or understand?

After spending my entire life being kicked by that generation, I simply didn't feel motivated to push them off the tracks--especially when they said they didn't need help.

I've changed my mind. I want a moratorium on social security until I'm eligible. Give these boomers everything they voted for. Put them in the "find out" stage--and let them finally choose a wooden box.

I'm done with stupid olds. I certainly won't lift a finger to hurt, but I'm also not doing shit to help them. I'm tired of their Reagan revolution. Fuck them.

I'm evil? Why would I "do that to them"? I'm not doing shit. That's what they vote for. Fuck. Have the day you voted for.

[BryanM]

boomerhate

I do find it amusing you're so deadset against vigilante justice but are perfectly fine with millions of old people who voted against this being killed. Life is full of contradictions and compromise.

Hate not the boomer; hate the parts of yourself that are a boomer instead. And do your best to carve them out of yourself, as it is difficult to do so.

Once one attains dharma that way, the world itself will then be a little less boomer.

[orange808]

boomerhate

I do find it amusing you're so deadset against vigilante justice but are perfectly fine with millions of old people who voted against this being killed. Life is full of contradictions and compromise.

Hate not the boomer; hate the parts of yourself that are a boomer instead. And do your best to carve them out of yourself, as it is difficult to do so.

Once one attains dharma that way, the world itself will then be a little less boomer.

You push against the rest of life... We all do. ¯⁠\⁠_⁠(⁠ツ⁠)⁠_⁠/⁠¯ At what point do the scales tip? Well, only Bryan can say. Ha. Circumventing nature is troublesome and sticky for me--and I need a good reason. Saving assholes that hate me isn't particularly motivating.

After decades of pleading with reason, I'm fucking done--and letting someone commit suicide is hardly vigilante justice. False equivalency. No merit to your argument--whatsoever.

Do you ever just tell someone to fuck right off? It sounds like you never have. You should consider it. I put every Trumper I know in the outer ring and I understand that life is short. I fully understand what I'm doing. No, I won't "regret" it and realize that "life was too short" later on. I've already lost friends and family. I've already outlived a lot of my heroes.

No. I get it--and I can still whirl on my heels and start boppin. I've no more time for bullshit. We've crossed a line.

I can turn around and walk away on both a personal and macro scale. Not the same thing as attacking other people, huh? You sound like Chuck Schumer to me. I may be a "cuck", but I have limits, red lines, and the backbone to walk away. Do you? I'm done engaging these people and helping them.