Earthquake has hit Japan

[GaijinPunch]

Magic Knight
Home address: 気仙沼
Status: Someone has received information that this person is alive

That's nice if it's true. Better than the other one!
[Name changed to protect the innocent]

[Skykid]

In the UK it takes longer to get back to normal after a snow storm.

Yeah, I was still queuing for my post in January.

Magic Knight
Home address: 気仙沼
Status: Someone has received information that this person is alive

Did you use his real name in the Person Finder? I hope that is him.

[GaijinPunch]

Did you use his real name in the Person Finder? I hope that is him.

Of course!

[neorichieb1971]

The Japanese are showing great character and will. I've seen no tears, no fear.. It is truly astounding.

[moozooh]

A lot of the engineers and scientists on that site are going to become really ill or die so people should be thankful for their sacrifice...

Not necessarily. The radiation measured at the site (i. e., the level immediately around the reactor shell, not what protected emergency personnel currently working there is exposed to) is slightly above 1 mSv/h (1.015 mSv). Here's an excerpt from Wikipedia's page on radiation poisoning:

A few symptom-free days may pass between the appearance of the initial symptoms and the onset of symptoms of more severe illness associated with higher doses of radiation. Nausea and vomiting generally occur within 24–48 hours after exposure to mild (1–2 Sv) doses of radiation. Radiation damage to the intestinal tract lining will cause nausea, bloody vomiting and diarrhea. This occurs when the victim's exposure is 200 rems (1 Sv = 100 rems) or more. The radiation will begin to destroy the cells in the body that divide rapidly. These including blood, GI tract, reproductive and hair cells, and harms the DNA and RNA of surviving cells. Headache, fatigue, and weakness are also seen with mild exposure. Moderate (2–3.5 Sv of radiation) exposure is associated with nausea and vomiting beginning within 12–24 hours after exposure. In addition to the symptoms of mild exposure, fever, hair loss, infections, bloody vomit and stools, and poor wound healing are seen with moderate exposure. Nausea and vomiting occur in less than 1 hour after exposure to severe (3.5–5.5 Sv) doses of radiation, followed by diarrhea and high fever in addition to the symptoms of lower levels of exposure. […] Severe exposure is fatal about 50% of the time.

Emphasis mine. The radiation dose reported there is absolutely not deadly unless you just go to the reactor building and camp there for days. Don't write them off too soon. :)
I should also point out that the most dangerous part in that leakage is the accumulation of radioactive iodine in thyroids of exposed people. Properly administered medication blocks the effect.

Edit: Fixed wrong OOM of Sieverts.

[austere]

No need to gleen information off wackypedia, I used to be an active physicist and I can tell you that there is no safe dose of radiation. The fact that they're reportedly being treated for radiation poisoning as we speak, tells me some of them are definitely going to get very ill. It's not just a matter of total radiation dose anyway, it's a matter of exposure to inhalable (or otherwise absorbable) radioactive material in the debris of the explosion. Much of it is bioaccumulative, why do you think they're handing out the Potassium Iodide.

You don't work on these sites without understanding exactly what it is you're getting yourself into. These guys are heroic.

[moozooh]

No need to gleen information off wackypedia, I used to be an active physicist and I can tell you that there is no safe dose of radiation.

I'm not sure whether you are exaggerating or just twisting the words, but we are exposed to all kinds of radiation every single moment of our everyday life, none of which is arguably "safe": normal background radiation that exists everywhere on the planet, sun radiation, microwave ovens, cellphones, wi-fi routers, CRT displays on arcade cabs, and the list can go on. The question is not whether it's safe, the question is whether it's harmful enough for the human organism to endure without the need to specifically adapt, mutate, or die.

I'm telling you not to create a tragedy before the tragedy strikes, and especially without strong reasons (like an actually deadly dose of radiation being reported) for doing so. You're telling me I'm dismissing the workers' heroism because I'm not actually being there. Seriously.

[austere]

The question is not whether it's safe, the question is whether it's harmful enough for the human organism to endure without the need to specifically adapt, mutate, or die.

The opposite of safe, is unsafe, which is potentially harmful by definition, this is what I'm trying to communicate to you. We're not talking about a 10,000 year period of adaptation, lol. How many times have various organisations had to reiterate the fact that there is no safe dose. There is no dose that will not generate mutations, tumours or permanent damage. If anyone is trying to twist words (in order to deal with this difficult situation?) it's you my friend. What we look at is an acceptable risk, otherwise we cannot do anything. The people on this site are taking a much larger risk than you when you play on a CRT, take an aeroplane ride or live next to granite for a decade.

I'm telling you not to create a tragedy before the tragedy strikes, and especially without strong reasons (like an actually deadly dose of radiation being reported) for doing so.

The tragedy is already in motion, I don't need an idiot on television to tell me what I already know from the information even you have available to you. Even if no one dies and the reactor is brought under control, a lot of people working on it are going to be very ill in due time. Not saying they will be acutely sick, but statistically a lot of them will become ill or die. If the reactor melts down, half the people who will have to contain it will perish.

Anyway I'm stating very basic facts. Some people go hysterical at the person giving them the truth. If that is how you choose to deal with such difficult circumstances, suit yourself, I for one will have none of it. I thought we're (mostly) all adults here.

You're telling me I'm dismissing the workers' heroism because I'm not actually being there.

Now I'm confused, I made no such implication, what are you on about?

[moozooh]

but statistically a lot of them will become ill or die.

Surely unlike all the other living people…

If the reactor melts down, half the people who will have to contain it will perish.

If the reactor melts down. Has it?

Anyway I'm stating very basic facts. Some people go hysterical at the person giving them the truth. If that is how you choose to deal with such difficult circumstances, suit yourself, I for one will have none of it. I thought we're (mostly) all adults here.

Now it's interesting that you bring up being adult and unhysterical while you also seem to be the only one talking about a worst-case scenario like it's already happening or bound to happen when everybody else here is at least trying to take it rationally. Quoting yourself, "a lot of the engineers and scientists on that site are going to become really ill or die". Some basic facts right there alright. Is it not hysterical to stir this up prematurely? Is it adult to pray for the supposedly-soon-to-be-late engineers' lost souls instead of putting faith in them making it through?

Japan is probably the most well-equipped and knowledgeable country to deal with disasters like this, which is duly illustrated by the insane pace of restoration taking place not even two days after the main event, and I assure you that the works being conducted at the site is no kamikaze action of WW2; yes, the engineers know the risks involved, but again, it's too early to write them off. Your pessimism is disturbing.

[austere]

I almost don't want to reply to that, you've completely run out of talking points. Like I said, some people can't deal with it, as you've demonstrated above with your misplaced and immature sarcasm.

For one, a worker has already been admitted to hospital with a total dose of 106.3 mSv with other injuries, perhaps. So saying it's theoretical risk is silly. Anyway, let me deal with this one:

Surely unlike all the other living people…

Like I said, it's not the same risk. It isn't my fault that you are mathematically challenged. Adults hope for the best but plan for the worst, we discuss risks -- we discuss worst case scenarios. Why do you think the area has been evacuated. If we operate on blind faith as you've advocated, they'd leave everyone at home, no? LOL, just as the Japanese resolve (these people really are admirable) restored my faith in humanity, your posts has brought it back down to Earth, thanks.

As for the other vitriol, I'll ignore it as not to waste any posts on this important topic, especially with an ex-poster missing (but found?). I apologise for polluting it as much as I already have.

[rancor]

hmm.. things are supposed to be getting better, but tomorrow electricity rationing begins. If I read correctly, my neighborhood will have no power between 4pm and 7pm starting tomorrow and continuing daily until further notice.

[austere]

It could be worse... but that's around the time you come home right? Ergh. You can imagine what a big hit the power grid took from this event. I think heavy industry is going to have to suspend operations for quite some time.

[Skykid]

News is getting more and more grim all the time. They're pretty sure the death toll will exceed 10,000 now, with Minamisanriku completey gone (population 17,000) and 400 bodies pulled out of Sendai so far (population 1 million.)

The nuclear reactor situation is particularly uneasy, they're siphoning seawater to keep it cool but they keep evacuating people even further away.
If it does go into meltdown that would be catastrophic. Can you imagine what would happen to the tourism industry?
I don't think Japan's economy can take too much more shit, it was on the wire before Friday, no idea what it will be like after this crap.

EDIT: All eyes on the Nikkei when it reopens tonight. They're expecting the Yen to rise!

[CMoon]

I'm sorry to bring this up again, but is there any concern over shortages of food or clean water? I haven't heard any talk of it, so I am hoping no.

[rancor]

I'm sorry to bring this up again, but is there any concern over shortages of food or clean water? I haven't heard any talk of it, so I am hoping no.

I went for a walk today, and ready-to-eat food is impossible to find (TV dinners, ramen, bread, etc.) but there was an abundance of drinks. The tap water is still clean, and I have 40 litres of bottled water arriving tomorrow - not to mention the abundance of vending machines - I think the water situation is OK. Also it seems that things such as fruits, vegetables, eggs, milk seem to be easy to find at the moment. I was told that the highways are shut down only for non-commercial vehicles, so goods are still being delivered from other parts of the country and thankfully all of the railways are working again. I just hope that everyone is getting prepared for the new quake that's supposed to hit in the next few days... These constant aftershocks are really freaking me out.. I keep expecting the next big one.

[TrevHead (TVR)]

My thoughts go out to GP, Magic Knight and everyone else whose in Japan.

The resent news is worrying with another earthquake due in 3 days time and escalting situation at that nuclear power plant with another 2 reactors going unstable and been cooled with seawater (using seawater means those reactors will never work again). And the news that another plant is having trouble aswell.

[greg]

Here's an illustration of how these plants looks like, by the way. Quite an ancient design.

Good picture. I'm no expert, and neither is my father, but he's explained a lot of this to me, so I'll try to remember. Basically, a nuclear reactor is basically a steam generator. It uses those control rods to heat up water, which creates electrical energy. It's all surrounded by lead, so the steam you see escaping from a power plant is free from radiation. What happens is that those control rods are risen up into the reactor core, the nuclear fission heats up the water, etc. In case of an overheat/ meltdown, the rods should be made to fall back down with little effort. I don't know how they're made in Japan, but the Palo Verde nuclear power plant outside of the Phoenix area in Arizona is made like this, and it powers much of the Southwestern states. The problem with Chernobyl is that the control rods were being lowered into the reactor core, and when the meltdown happened, the rods were stuck and couldn't be raised back up. Russian engineering wasn't all that great.

As far as 3 Mile Island goes, we all now know that this was the result of the decapitated head of Mega Lame Deadpool with Cyclops's optic blast ability duck taped to his skull falling into the power plant.

[moozooh]

Chernobyl AES is a completely different design, and the reason for disaster there was a complex amalgamation of bad planning, plain negligence, design shortcomings, and human factors difficult to attest as the people involved are by this point dead. The design was obsolete, which became apparent in the state of emergency, but otherwise the plant was well built.

The control rods (made of cadmium primarily, but other materials are also involved) are not what heats the water, they are a neutron trap used to control the reaction (the self-sustaining fission of uranium or plutonium) or shut it down in case of emergency, maintenance, or decommission. The fuel rods are what is heating the water. In a state of emergency the control rods are automatically dropped into the core thereby halting further reaction, but they can't and won't stop the heat that has already built up, as well as the decay heat continually generated by the byproducts of uranium decay and the increase in pressure coming from the lack of cooling as happened in this case.

Unlike Fukushima's boiling water reactor, where water is both a coolant and a neutron moderator (slowing neutrons down so that they are more likely to meet the next unstable atom without the need for a critical mass of radioactive material), Chernobyl's design prevented proper control in the circumstances of insufficient coolant supply, so when the critical situation arose, its power output shot through the roof instead of being reduced (despite the control rods having been inserted, (more info here) until the core itself followed it a few seconds later, quite literally shooting parts of the fuel and reaction byproducts through the roof into the sky and surrounding areas. The rest of the core melted and burned through the floor, where parts of it are still decaying, and will decay for some more years.

Here's also a video talking about meltdown, with illustrations: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IDfAZhhqkCI

(Edited for clarity.)

[austere]

Chernobyl had no neutron moderators other than the control rods themselves

Control rods are not moderators, they use materials able to capture neutrons -- i.e. they reduce the effective cross-section as they are inserted into the reactor. Furthermore, Chernobyl did have a moderator, it was a completely different design than the one you discussed previously, I suggest you look it up in wackypedia for your own information. An otherwise decent post, of a quality I would have otherwise hoped to have received in reply to mine.

[Kakizaki]

^Can you two please knock it off? Pretty damn petty exchange between the two of you in a thread like this.

[austere]

I don't see why you need to tell moozooh to "knock it off" since it was just me replying/seemingly antagonising (to you). Learn some manners, he's put some effort into his post.

[Kakizaki]

I don't see why you need to tell moozooh to "knock it off" since it was just me replying/seemingly antagonising (to you). Learn some manners, he's put some effort into his post.

Perhaps I was anticipating another exchange similar to the one the two of you had halfway through this page.

[Skykid]

I don't see why you need to tell moozooh to "knock it off" since it was just me replying/seemingly antagonising (to you). Learn some manners, he's put some effort into his post.

His point is that an exchange over the correctness of your statements regarding the inner workings of a nuclear reactor shouldn't really be debated in this thread to such a degree. It seems more reasonable to focus on Magic Knight's wellbeing, and the condition of the nuclear reactor (rather than duking out the scientific details.) Even though I personally find the trivia very interesting, it's probably better to continue it in another thread or something.

[austere]

But someone is wrong on the internet. Jokes aside, I don't disagree with him, I just found the tone rather rude and the post itself was pointless because there was nothing more to say. Also, people should note that forums are there for active discussion and the operation of nuclear reactors is actually on-topic. It seems that some people get a knee-jerk reaction to silence everyone when there is a heated discussion.

Anyway, only writing this to post this link of before and after satellite images:

http://www.abc.net.au/news/events/japan ... eafter.htm

It's a lot more depressing seeing this than the video of the tsunami, ironically.

[Kakizaki]

I don't see why you need to tell moozooh to "knock it off" since it was just me replying/seemingly antagonising (to you). Learn some manners, he's put some effort into his post.

His point is that an exchange over the correctness of your statements regarding the inner workings of a nuclear reactor shouldn't really be debated in this thread to such a degree. It seems more reasonable to focus on Magic Knight's wellbeing, and the condition of the nuclear reactor (rather than duking out the scientific details.) Even though I personally find the trivia very interesting, it's probably better to continue it in another thread or something.

Thank you Skykid - That is exactly what I meant.

Anyway, here are some pics taken by a friend of mine. It was his last day teaching in Chiba prefecture before moving into Tokyo:


http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v85/D ... G_3276.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v85/D ... G_3277.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v85/D ... G_3278.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v85/D ... G_3279.jpg
http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v85/D ... G_3280.jpg

Apparently a gas station blew up a few blocks away from the school he was teaching at but the shock wave was still strong enough to damage the doors and the exterior of the school.

[TLB]

When I was hearing about this, I thought it had happened in China for some reason. Hope everyone's okay! :)

This was the first footage I even saw of the wreckage.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=amaxyO6yyfo

[moozooh]

Control rods are not moderators, they use materials able to capture neutrons -- i.e. they reduce the effective cross-section as they are inserted into the reactor.

I know, that's oversimplification on my part. Moderators exist in the system for the means of sustaining reaction at lower level of reactivity by slowing down neutrons; control rods exist for the means of lowering the power output of the reaction by slowing it down. The objectives are different but essentially complementary to the overarching goal of reaction control. In the deficiency of a moderator the only way to control a reaction is by using the control rods.

I had, however, erroneously concluded that since RBMK design had no controllable moderating element (unlike water that can be manipulated in various ways), there was no moderation to talk about. Apparently it used graphite for all the control purposes as well as a constructive element of the reactor core (which essentially is a huge brickwork of graphite with orifices for fuel, control rods, and coolant pipes).

An otherwise decent post, of a quality I would have otherwise hoped to have received in reply to mine.

And here I had hoped you would follow your own decision not to pollute the important topic with your posts. I was already going to list the "basic facts" about your contributions to the thread, but let's not ruin another hopefully decent post. :P

So far there have been no official reports of acute radiation poisoning that would incur death or major damage even among the workers. I've read the daily NISA statements, and while they don't seem to be comprehensive, the lack of bad news can also mean good news. I would strongly suggest postponing the conclusions of lethality until after we have comprehensive information on levels of exposure (which don't seem to be critical yet) and state of the reactor cores. Coming up with scenarios of death and suffering achieves exactly nothing.

So, what is currently troubling is the status of the third core, as NISA has reported failure in their attempts to inject the coolant. This may or may not lead to eventual overheating, depending on the core integrity, internal temperature, and TEPCO's further attempts to cool it down. German forces are also withdrawing their personnel from the site as TEPCO has started contradicting their own statements, which may indicate concealment of some important blunder, not unlike the BP oil disaster of a year ago. (Damn, time flies fast.)

Sources to read:
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/index.html
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/tsu ... ate01.html
http://orbiter-forum.com/showthread.php?t=21121

[greg]

OK, I'm partially guilty of this too, but can you two knock it off, moozooh and austere? This thread is getting entirely derailed.

[moozooh]

Derailed from what exactly? While we're waiting for Magic Knight to check in, new information on the aftermath of the earthquake arrives constantly.

[ryu]

well, the thread's been about circlejerking gaijin solidarity before. can't blame the people complaining (to be honest i also felt it was a bit disrespectful getting offensive in here)