Prelude to the Apocalypse

[orange808]

Also, Elon Musk is no hero. Furthermore, why am I trusting a company to keep the space station from hitting me? That's something we all have a stake in. That's a job for the government. That's a job for NASA. Now, I'm trusting a company? What the fuck will that cost me? And, why would I need hero worship? If we did it right and let our space agency handle it, we wouldn't be desperately begging a company to save us.

Furthermore, space will be militarized because people are involved. I'm sorry you're triggered. That's reality. How will you operate in a (at least partially) militarized sector using commerical contractors? Space X is very different from partnering with Martin Marietta in the past.

[BryanM]

I still can't understand why Putin would do this.

Ukraine was lost to them, as the country was firmly moving in the direction of the EU. (This video by some youtube guy gives an introduction of the past decade of history there.)

Oligarchs really don't like it when capital is pulled out of their hands, and would definitely rather burn it to the ground than let someone else have it. If they didn't approve of what Putin was doing, he would have been disappeared by now already.

Perhaps some fear of a domino theory and the end of an era is also at the fringes of the logic: if Russia lost Ukraine, how long until they undergo a revolution of their own? Our overlords are fossils, their overlords are fossils, time always changes everything, in the end.

[orange808]

I still can't understand why Putin would do this.

Ukraine was lost to them, as the country was firmly moving in the direction of the EU. (This video by some youtube guy gives an introduction of the past decade of history there.)

Oligarchs really don't like it when capital is pulled out of their hands, and would definitely rather burn it to the ground than let someone else have it. If they didn't approve of what Putin was doing, he would have been disappeared by now already.

Perhaps some fear of a domino theory and the end of an era is also at the fringes of the logic: if Russia lost Ukraine, how long until they undergo a revolution of their own? Our overlords are fossils, their overlords are fossils, time always changes everything, in the end.

I cannot agree. I don't believe Putin operates alongside or within any aristocracy. He consolidated power long ago. His authority is absolute. Nobody offers any approval or disapproval of his unilateral and ultimate will--only the most gentle of advice from his inner circle. There are no opinions. Putin ultimately makes the decisions. Removed? Don't make me laugh. The only man that removes others is Putin.

I understand the general motivations and history of the area--including the rise and fall of the Soviet Union. That doesn't offer a good explanation for me. I feel like this will turn into a long and costly occupation and I don't understand how it works out. Of course, we're all plebs, so no matter. However, I really don't believe Putin faces any threats of palace intrigue and he doesn't tolerate "frenemies".

[Ed Oscuro]

There are some clues about Putin's state of mind, but it's still a gamble as to whether we can read them correctly.

Shortly before the invasion he was on TV with FM Sergey Lavrov and asked how they were doing. The FM said he wanted more time for diplomacy. That could be read as a fig leaf but it's also possible it was a break in unity. A few days ago Putin humiliated his foreign intelligence chief. Putin's own recent statements seem to indicate the 5'7" leader sees himself as a new Napoleon or Alexander, a great protagonist of history destined to reunite the Slavic peoples. Considering the poor performance of the Russian military in Ukraine, this suggests a picture where Putin's official circle aren't able to candidly communicate Russia's position to their boss. Finally, it appears the government was not anticipating mass public protests, unlike the media blitz in 2014. Instead the Russian people have been treated to videos of their leader rambling at length. I doubt all of these events are carefully scripted. Russia has not cared very much if their official denials or arguments make much sense when compared to other sources, nor do they try very hard to rebut them. It could be that the nuclear posture is bluster, but I think there is also a distinct possibility that Putin simply is surprised to find where he is now. And, of course, nuclear bluster is still a position closer to an attack posture than is normal.

My pet theory is that Putin sees Ukraine as a way to diversify away from oil and reduce exposure to international sanctions. Between Putin's constant invocation of Russian humiliation at the hands of America and the international community, and the simple feelings of majority Russians, he doesn't have an easy path to ask the international community for economic support. Nor would the economic and power structures in Russia hold up to international demands for transparency in exchange for assistance. So it's likely the only path forward he can see is to carve out an exclusive economic zone with countries that are friendly to him, and Ukraine is a large market with a decent economy. This arrangement wouldn't be too different from the Russia-first structure of the old USSR, which was based on egalitarian lies.

It's clear that Putin doesn't have the forces to take Ukraine. Then again, the early stages of the war clearly showed the plan was to capture or kill the Ukrainian leadership and install a friendly government.

[BryanM]

I cannot agree. I don't believe Putin operates alongside or within any aristocracy. He consolidated power long ago.

He's not Superman. No man rules alone. Even within a power structure where he's at the top of the pyramid, loyalty of his immediate subordinates is crucial.

Man, remember when Kim Jong-un was coming into power and everyone was like "maybe things will get better there". lol. The job's the job, and anyone who doesn't do the job gets fired real quick.

As we always said: the only way Trump would have been removed from office mid-term is if he gave everyone health care.

[orange808]

I cannot agree. I don't believe Putin operates alongside or within any aristocracy. He consolidated power long ago.

He's not Superman. No man rules alone. Even within a power structure where he's at the top of the pyramid, loyalty of his immediate subordinates is crucial.

Man, remember when Kim Jong-un was coming into power and everyone was like "maybe things will get better there". lol. The job's the job, and anyone who doesn't do the job gets fired real quick.

As we always said: the only way Trump would have been removed from office mid-term is if he gave everyone health care.

This has little to do with Trump or America. Putin lives in his own world and we have little ability to influence it directly.

Things work differently in other places. In a different time, we might call them theatres.

You always seem to subscribe to this theory of a secret shadow council of ultra rich old men pulling strings. A Logan's Run thing, I guess. In many countries that's possible and mostly true. But, it's not universal and no "oligarch" is staffed with Superman. There is no global superman council that meets and carves up the earth annually. Putin (kind of) is Superman at home in Russia. I don't buy into any "et tu brute" scenarios. There is no council of global oligachs that wield power everywhere. It would take a great deal for him to be removed--and that's not because most of the wealthy decision makers in the west like him.

It's ironic you mentioned Pyongyang, because that's another place where essentially one man does rule. North Korea has also consolidated power--although much more ruthlessly than Putin. North Korea seems to be governed almost exclusively by fear these days.

Sure, Putin makes friends and connections to run his nation. But, at the same time, he will never allow any of his subordinate partners to challenge him in any fashion. He won't be creating rivals; Putin can create and destroy associates with ease. His partners' wealth and power all flow directly through Putin and I have zero doubts he keeps all his close associates under surveillance --and his surveillance under surveillance--probably with handsome rewards for anyone that finds evidence of a traitor.

Paradoxically, sanctions may create even more loyal associates, because the only prospects of being wildly successful will flow through Putin (even more than before)--as opportunities in the global economy evaporate. I suppose it's the same way in North Korea.

[orange808]

It's clear that Putin doesn't have the forces to take Ukraine. Then again, the early stages of the war clearly showed the plan was to capture or kill the Ukrainian leadership and install a friendly government.

Agreed. My issue with that is the "we will be welcomed as liberators" mantra that still rings in our heads from the Iraq misadventure. Given the cool response Ukraine offered (with violent resistance) in the 2014 conflict, I question rather Ukraine will ever settle in and accept Moscow as their master.

I believe Putin expected the government to flee and he was planning to roll in mostly uncontested. I certainly thought so. Looking back, I realize that wasn't possible. If anything, Ukraine was more angry with Moscow now than they were years ago. It's the "you killed my dad and brother" thing. It makes permanent enemies and waving a flag doesn't make it okay. It's almost as if Putin expected everyone to eat a Mentos and laugh the entire awkward situation away.

[auryn]

It's clear that Putin doesn't have the forces to take Ukraine. Then again, the early stages of the war clearly showed the plan was to capture or kill the Ukrainian leadership and install a friendly government.

Agreed. My issue with that is the "we will be welcomed as liberators" mantra that still rings in our heads from the Iraq misadventure. Given the cool response Ukraine offered (with violent resistance) in the 2014 conflict, I question rather Ukraine will ever settle in and accept Moscow as their master.

I believe Putin expected the government to flee and he was planning to roll in mostly uncontested. I certainly thought so. Looking back, I realize that wasn't possible. If anything, Ukraine was more angry with Moscow now than they were years ago. It's the "you killed my dad and brother" thing. It makes permanent enemies and waving a flag doesn't make it okay. It's almost as if Putin expected everyone to eat a Mentos and laugh the entire awkward situation away.

If you are a thoroughly unfeeling person like Putin, it's hard to understand that other people have feelings and how they operate

[BryanM]

You always seem to subscribe to this theory of a secret shadow council of ultra rich old men pulling strings.

No, that would be dumb. As a cynic, I believe people are motivated by their own desires and not magically somehow influenced by the terminal values of other people.

A #1 universal common desire of humans: to be comfortable. Having to do stuff is not comfortable; they don't want to be distracted from their endless vacation at pedo island by having to lift up a phone and slap a cog that made a mistake. The system sustains itself on its own.

Such is the nature of hierarchies: as long as the people on the pirate ship are content (whether they're technically above or below The Leader on the hierarchy chart, they're the Important People Who Matter), the managers under them have an enormous amount of leeway in how they manage their resources. Putin could dump half the Russian army into a volcano and these guys wouldn't care. Biden could scuttle half the US navy, and they wouldn't care. Different empires, same terminal values at the top. None of these guys have ever given a single real thought to a dead soldier or civilian, outside of their use as a rhetorical wedge for PR. And only if their personal job includes caring about PR.

As the late Miss Bush would say: "Why would I bother my beautiful mind with that?"

[Durandal]

Now that bloody war is being waged in Eastern Europe for cynical geopolitical (and possibly nonsensical) motives and almost all eyes in the world are turned towards Ukraine, one would expect the usual suspects to be beating the drums of war. Instead, punditry seems to have collectively developed a sudden hyperfixation on... pronouns?

Spoiler

Link to video: https://twitter.com/ronfilipkowski/stat ... 7386263553


I think Protestants would like a word on this one.

Even my beloved Benji has stepped into this fray. Look at that little ice cream badge:

Spoiler

Online US partisans seem to be desperately scrambling to try and figure out how they can disagree on this situation and find a talking point that is uniquely theirs, considering the only thing they're united on is that there can be no unity. If blue falls behind Biden and European allies to support increased sanctions and some kind of unified military action against Russian aggression, then where does that leave red? Playing the America First card and going "it's not our problem" won't be feasible what with Russia starting to get frisky with nuclear arms and China looming on the horizon.

[Ed Oscuro]

Ah, you're behind the times Durandal! All the "anti-woke" army folks have been beaten into submission by the "they/them army" meme by now.

https://knowyourmeme.com/memes/theythem-army

But you're right, it's very strange to see this. It's almost as if culture war is just a cynical distraction from real issues.

[Mischief Maker]

Just one more:

https://twitter.com/DylanBurns1776/stat ... Xi_sgpAAAA

[Ed Oscuro]

Ramzan Kadyrov walked right the hell out of there in his Prada boots. They/them army!

[BulletMagnet]

Instead, punditry seems to have collectively developed a sudden hyperfixation on... pronouns?

Putin and other such despots who persecute their LGBTQ citizens (with open approval from religious leaders) have long been lionized as the last line of defense against The Gay Agenda; the latest variation on the theme is that most everyone else is actually opposing them on Ukraine in order to render further obeisance to the all-powerful queers.

[emphatic]

Too many people just can't imagine that the whole "woke culture" might be an elaborate Russian psy-op to "weaken" the west. The same goes for the anti-nuclear power movement. Russia wants to sell us gas, not see us build nuclear power plants. It's not even far-fetched. And for many progressive folks, it feels good too!

[Ed Oscuro]

China: Victim of its own propaganda successes? From the NYT: "Why the Chinese Internet Is Cheering Russia’s Invasion"

If President Vladimir V. Putin is looking for international support and approval for his invasion of Ukraine, he can turn to the Chinese internet.

Its users have called him “Putin the Great,” “the best legacy of the former Soviet Union” and “the greatest strategist of this century.” They have chastised Russians who protested against the war, saying they had been brainwashed by the United States.

In terms of "wokeness" being a Russian psyop...I doubt it. The people who are in the "pronoun" part of the Internet are very different from the Dr. Steins and even Senator Bernies when it comes to cheering on Russia. Putin himself is firmly on the side of the anti-woke, for what that's worth. As far as the nuclear energy question, that may have some more merit since the Russians have supported (alongside other oil deadenders like Koch) anti-renewable topics. Really, most of their focus is on renewables. Nuclear has, since Fukushima and earlier disasters, been a long hobbyhorse of the "intelligent" Western dissenter. But now the German Finance Ministry has overruled the Energy Ministry and they may be on again for nuclear power. I personally don't feel I know enough to be pro- or anti-nuclear power, but lately I have been seeing more compelling arguments for it. Old habits die hard.

[Blinge]

It's clear that Putin doesn't have the forces to take Ukraine. Then again, the early stages of the war clearly showed the plan was to capture or kill the Ukrainian leadership and install a friendly government.

with that massive convoy headed towards Kyiv i think that's still the plan?

[Ed Oscuro]

Yes. In the early stages, with attacks coming in from seven directions, it wasn't immediately clear whether they would try to destroy the whole Ukrainian army (Putin has called it "de-Nazification"), try to hold the entire country, or whatever. Replacing the government with a friendly one is the only attack plan that makes sense.

[ED-057]

Congratulations Democrats! I heard about Ukraine's offer to waive visa requirements. Your dream of war with Russia is finally here! You must be so happy Hope you have fun and don't get diarrhea at the front lines.

[BulletMagnet]

Too many people just can't imagine that the whole "woke culture" might be an elaborate Russian psy-op to "weaken" the west.

No, no, no, you've got it all wrong.

[emphatic]

´No, no, no, you've got it all wrong.

"Retired Evangelist Pat Robertson Says Putin Is Fulfilling Biblical Prophecy"

I read it as "Retarded Evangelist". *Borat voice* High five?

[orange808]

´No, no, no, you've got it all wrong.

"Retired Evangelist Pat Robertson Says Putin Is Fulfilling Biblical Prophecy"

I read it as "Retarded Evangelist". *Borat voice* High five?

To a man with a hammer, everything is a nail. Whatever your particular devil is, you'll always find it.

Libertarian? It's always freedom.
SJW? It's always discrimination.
Are you fantastically rich? It's always taxes or regulations.
Religious? It's always a prophecy or message from beyond.
Racist and/or nationalist? It's always the "bad" people. They're born evil. (And you aren't. lmao.)

Everyone is so predictable. ...
Shades of grey require thought. Can't have that.

[orange808]

Ex-NRA chief David Keene writes for the Washington Times. In 2015, he and the NRA were hosted by Putin and Russia. This began what many believe was/is a partnership between the NRA and Russia. In fact, reports say the NRA became a Russian "foreign asset". There are also allegations of campaign funding scandal invloved. The NRA has also faced legal action for aiding Putin in money laundering.

I believe the NRA partnered with and endorses this invasion. This is un-American. The NRA partners with Putin and Russia.

NRA members are reds.

[Sima Tuna]

I have to assume that Putin thought he was going to enlarge the Russian Empire again. "Denazification" is some fucking meme wording. Why would he bother with a puppet government when he could run everything directly? My best guess is he was hoping this invasion would go smoothly (lightning-fast assault leading to instant capitulation) and he could start gobbling up the other former Soviet nations to form a new USSR. One with Blackjack. And Hookers.

The longer this invasion goes without a win for Putin, the more likely some other nation will step in (to fight) or he'll fuck up and escalate the conflict into WW3. He has to know that any incursion on Poland will not be tolerated by any of the western euro powers. Many would probably rather see Russia become a smoking nuclear crater than give him any traction further west.

[Mischief Maker]

Many would probably rather see Russia become a smoking nuclear crater than give him any traction further west.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZm3qBdECdw

[Ed Oscuro]

Congratulations Democrats! I heard about Ukraine's offer to waive visa requirements. Your dream of war with Russia is finally here! You must be so happy Hope you have fun and don't get diarrhea at the front lines.

Mmmhmm, Mr. Equalizer https://www.texasmonthly.com/articles/s ... a-hacking/

[BryanM]

I personally don't feel I know enough to be pro- or anti-nuclear power, but lately I have been seeing more compelling arguments for it. Old habits die hard.

Being generally pro is the correct answer, unless you want your cities to look like a ghostbusters set.





Fukushima was an example of regulatory capture of government: putting each backup generator on the roof would have cost what, ~$30,000 at most? Anyone with two braincells knew having them elevated might be a super good idea on a beachline in a tidal-wave prone island. Unless having an extra couple million dollars in your bank account is more important than public safety. Which it apparently was and always is.

Thorium reactors were possibly a get-out-of-apocalypse free card. We developed the first test prototype in Oakridge in 1964. Thanks to our old friend... regulatory capture of government, research was killed very quickly. It was cheaper to repurpose a design that was made for submarines into a grift rather than developing something far more sane than using water as a coolant. Fuckin' water, man. Public pays for research, zillionaires get to pocket it once it's remotely viable. Even if it's something as stupid as.... using water. As a coolant.

IT'S FUCKING WATER.

......

China has reportedly been continuing where Oakridge left off, using their research as a starting point. All because one of their princelings randomly stumbled upon it one day.

The stupidest computer simulation.

[orange808]

There was a time that we didn't mock people's dead children. Look I'm not a huge fan of centriats, but Biden lost his first wife and two of his kids. He knows what senseless loss feels like.

It's awfully rich to hear a Republican bitch about dead soldiers. We lost fewer soldiers in the final year in Afghanistan than we had in previous years. The entire mission was stupid and every Republican that supported it killed innocent soldiers for nothing: including that craven little asshole from Colorado.

She also supports the NRA--and indirectly supports Russia and Putin. She supports guns. In the same state where people are gunned down at school and shopping. And, of course, she supports laundering money for Russia.

[Mischief Maker]

She also gave an entire rodeo bloody diarrhea from feeding them unsanitary pork sliders.

[Ed Oscuro]

Absolutely vile. Censure and expel.