COVID-19 in your part of the world

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Mischief Maker
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Mischief Maker »

BulletMagnet wrote:That said, though, I will still take this opportunity to post this bit of brilliance. :lol:
Hacks! What the hell is that model doing standing upright? The most salient aspect of Trump's posture is that he's always leaning forward at an unnatural angle:
Spoiler
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Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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vol.2
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by vol.2 »

BulletMagnet wrote:Er, I think you might have posted this in the wrong thread, as the curfew being enforced has nothing to do with the pandemic.
It's all connected!

Yeah, I should have posted it somewhere else. I wasn't paying attention.

That said, though, I will still take this opportunity to post this bit of brilliance. :lol:
That's hilarious. I can sleep easy tonight knowing that Madam Tussauds has control over trumps voodoo likeness. I hope they are sticking pins in his prostate at night.
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orange808
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by orange808 »

Actually, if the death certificate lists one cause, that's the official cause. If there are multiple causes, they are listed (as well).

It's funny to see the media twist themselves into knots trying to invent "gross misinformation" on this one. On any other day, the media would gladly report this one as a stone fact.

I'm not a big fan of the American president, but this is classic click bait and posturing.

The media makes up shit all the time. The misinformation on AOC supposedly undermining everyone at the Democrat convention when she followed protocol in her support of Sanders is a great example.

It's funny how we always want to "pick and choose" when and where we will think things through all the way to the bottom--and consider all the factors.

Although, even if you do that here, there aren't many other conclusions. The death certificate is the final word from a doctor.

Face it:
Yes. We are doing all of this to save older and sicker people. Yes. You can post outliers. Yes, you can say "every life matters", but I'm going to reply with a shitstorm of other situations where you callously go about your business and let people die. Basically, if it doesn't affect you personally, you probably don't give a shit. :)

Could save a lot more young and potentially productive people with universal health care. (Just sayin. Ya know, if all these lives really matter.) Or, is it a situation where you're upset you can't buy your way out of this one--and you only care about your old/weak family member? For many, it's the latter.
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Mischief Maker
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Mischief Maker »

Donald Trump just ran face-first into some Karma.

Unfortunately Coronavirus doesn't kill evil people.

Edit: But as I think about it, I'm leaning 40% this is a fake announcement to get out of any more debates, seeing as Biden's lead jumped way up after this last one.
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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CIT
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by CIT »

Time to inject some disinfectant Donald!
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BulletMagnet
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by BulletMagnet »

Mischief Maker wrote:But as I think about it, I'm leaning 40% this is a fake announcement to get out of any more debates, seeing as Biden's lead jumped way up after this last one.
If that were his intention he would have gone with "the debate commission is part of the Deep State" (or maybe bone spurs) instead of undermining his ability to mock Biden for wearing a mask...yeah, as if a little thing like this will slow that shit down among either him or the faithful for a second. :lol:
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BareKnuckleRoo
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by BareKnuckleRoo »

Mischief Maker wrote:But as I think about it, I'm leaning 40% this is a fake announcement to get out of any more debates, seeing as Biden's lead jumped way up after this last one.
I'd say the probability is even lower.

I've heard speculation that he's made a fake announcement to garner sympathy, and is doing it to get out of the debates, prove what a tough guy he is after he "cures" it with hydroxychloroquine, or simply to "own the libs" somehow, presumably by milking sympathy from his supporters by showing how many liberals are posting memes talking about how "unfortunate" it is that karma's bitten him deservingly in the ass.

It's probably a real announcement though, and that's purely based on the physical evidence (we know Trump is a pathological liar so what he says is largely irrelevant):

• He has consistently failed to take basic precautions against COVID-19, being shown in public at events in close proximity to others without wearing a mask. This includes continuing to hold public rallies where he and his followers do not follow basic safety measures.

• He's mocked Biden for wearing a mask, signalling he views it as a sign of weakness. We can therefore assume that the rare time he wears a mask that it's at the insistence of his aides and he has no regard for safety, apparently presuming himself immune from ever catching it.

• He has touted hydroxychloroquine as a prophylactic against COVID-19 and may seriously think that (assuming he's actually taken it) is immune to the disease and thus disregards basic safety measures.

Trump was always at high risk of catching COVID-19, as other world leaders who've taken the disease more seriously have unfortunately fallen ill, and it was always a likely scenario that he'd catch it from a rally.

There's also not much benefit of lying about it, except perhaps to be infected and claim you're not to appear tough (which likely wouldn't last long, a coverup of the president being infected and infecting others would be a massive scandal his handlers want to avoid). It certainly won't get him out of debating, which can reformat to an online format for safety, and I don't see how the benefits of lying to garner sympathy outweigh the potential scandal of lying about it (though Trump is known for consistently making poor life choices).

I'd peg the chances of him bullshitting the nation this time at 20% or so. Possible, but very unlikely.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by FinalBaton »

The second wave is infecting a lot more people here than the first time around. despite pretty severe gov't lockdowns.

whereas we had 300 new infections per day the first time, we now have 800-1000 a day now. for a population of 7 millions. at least the number of death is really low, and almost all of them are very old which means people in good health basically always survive this virus.

I like to think people in general are taking good precautions, however the dumb conspiracy theorists really piss me off here. they organise rallies where they don't wear mask. they get agressive with clerks and bus drivers and there are reported cases where they beat them up. they send death threaths to gov't officials. and they propagate their message and actually expand their ''forces''. this movement is spearheaded by the same bunch of clowns who were in 2-3 previous ''citizen brigade'' type orgs, which goes to show that these people have a ''cult of personality'' disorder and are obssessed with fame and control and being in a position of power.
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Mischief Maker
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Mischief Maker »

Well let's not forget that even if coronavirus doesn't always kill, it often maims.

I know a relatively young and healthy person who had mild covid-19 symptoms during the infection who's now going to see the cardiologist over the after-effects.
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by BareKnuckleRoo »

Even if he does get seriously ill from it, he and his family will absolutely try to use it to their political benefit as journalists have noted. That may well be the real danger from this, that even if he is really ill that somehow he will stand to materially benefit from it.
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vol.2
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by vol.2 »

BareKnuckleRoo wrote: I'd peg the chances of him bullshitting the nation this time at 20% or so. Possible, but very unlikely.


FWIW, I agree that he most likely has it. It's better to tell people now than to risk it coming out if he shows serious symptoms. Then he looks even weaker and his lies get even more center stage.
Also, I agree with the assessment that there are better moves for him politically right now. Pretty much anything would have been a better move.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

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Mischief Maker
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Mischief Maker »

Steamflogger Boss wrote:Things are escalating quickly.
Mike Pence's prayers are paying off!
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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BIL
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by BIL »

Rick Moranis got knocked the fuck out. The worst thing? His attacker was wearing his mask like this. :sad:

Image

And here I thought the elderly people blundering their way into my personal space while I'm reliving the steaming jungles of Nam for their benefit were galling. :evil:
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system11
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by system11 »

So while infections are allegedly increasing dramatically in the UK, the death rates haven't really reflected this.

Is it:
1) Infections are not actually rising as much as claimed, just more are being detected which would have been symptomless non-events before?
2) Less people are suffering the worst effects - either it's chilled out a bit, or doctors are getting better at treatment, or ?
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Vanguard
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Vanguard »

Another possibility is that many of the people most vulnerable to the virus are already dead.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by GaijinPunch »

C: All of the above?

I'm sure doctors are far better at it than they were. Not sure about the most vulnerable already being dead. That seems like very wishful thinking as such a small percentage of any population has been affected. I believe NYC at 22% is probably the most in any part of the world.

The US has a shit load of deaths though still. I don't think we are in any position to start blaming shitty statistics on anything. And of course, all eyes on fat donny.
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vol.2
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by vol.2 »

GaijinPunch wrote: Not sure about the most vulnerable already being dead. That seems like very wishful thinking as such a small percentage of any population has been affected. I believe NYC at 22% is probably the most in any part of the world.
I was just thinking about this. The US is at like 2% of the population reported infected. Even if you assume that there are people who have it and never got tested, that's way, way off from "calling it a day."

Statistically, there will be far more deaths if it goes on long enough.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by BulletMagnet »

BareKnuckleRoo wrote:Even if he does get seriously ill from it, he and his family will absolutely try to use it to their political benefit as journalists have noted.
As always, their flunkies' unquestioning eagerness to dive face-first into any cobbled-together nonsense they puke out means they have no reason whatsoever to try all that hard. :lol:
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by SuperPang »

system11 wrote: symptomless non-events
There's no such thing. It mostly spreads via people who are asymptomatic and eventually finds its way to those with underlying health conditions. This is why you need mass testing and contact tracing which still isn't working effectively here, so all we can do is suppress it with new measures. It's early days but it looks like this is working.

The only statistic you should really use to judge is the hospital admissions figure.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by TransatlanticFoe »

system11 wrote:So while infections are allegedly increasing dramatically in the UK, the death rates haven't really reflected this.

Is it:
1) Infections are not actually rising as much as claimed, just more are being detected which would have been symptomless non-events before?
2) Less people are suffering the worst effects - either it's chilled out a bit, or doctors are getting better at treatment, or ?
It's a mix of factors.

Chiefly, delays to testing means that the daily reported figures are actually a mishmash of several days' worth (sometimes from a week or more ago) of testing data. This makes the daily reported figures utterly worthless, instead focus should be on the tests by sample date - as these figures reflect more closely when a case arose (i.e. a person developed symptoms sufficiently to get a test). It's still not perfect, given a case may have been picked up anywhere between 3 and 14 days prior (though that incubation period is based on early analysis and it is likely it's 3-5 days, in line with similar viruses) but it gives you a good picture - this is now further offset by data going missing since September 24th, so we could see a few steep jumps yet. The picture as it stands though, appears to have topped out at around 6000 cases per day in England, though that's the 24th September figure so may rise slightly due to the current issues with reporting.

The situation is a severe north/south divide - for a few weeks now, 75% or more of cases, hospitalisation, intensive case and fatalities are in the midlands and the north. This is easily gleaned from the government's covid website and I'm surprised the media is still presenting it as a dire situation nationally. Cases ARE up nationally - but across the south, south west and east this is marginal and from a very low baseline, with even London (12.5% of the national picture) not seeing the hefty jumps the midlands/north experienced in September. The southern situation is rather as you'd expect for viruses as you head into autumn (and people head indoors!). This is probably mainly an issue of population density, fuelled in recent days by student migration to universities and exacerbated by social/fiancial factors.

The healthcare situation is not and cannot be comparable to the initial outbreak, because testing was so limited - only the most severe cases were being tested and the early tests had questionable reliability compared to today's. It is suspected that, based on the heathcare situation then and now that the number of cases at that initial outbreak was orders of magnitude higher than the limited testing picked up.

Treatments are better - hospital stays for non-critical patients can be reduced with the Ebola anti-viral drug whose exact spelling escapes me, and early treatment with common steriods gives a better prognosis for those that require oxygen and/or ventilation. There are also trials of synthetic antibodies and convalescent plasma, whose overall impact on prognosis will be known in coming months.

It's also worth pointing out that persons may be hospitalised and die for reasons other than covid, particularly as the bulk of those impacted have serious underlying health issues, but either coincidentally have covid or catch it in hospital (and thus test positive) and thus end up as a covid statistic. We're not, for some reason, analysing the covid situation as we would with flu (detailed reports are published for each flu season and are not "person had flu and died therefore flu killed them" - they go into more depth on cases, causes of death and comorbidity factors) and even "excess deaths" is an inaccurate measure due to an unclear mental health picture and halting of many routine medical treatments/screening (it does give you an overall picture of the total cost due to the pandemic and response measures combined though).

However, the duration of the illness means any healthcare impact will be offset from any rise in infections. A rise in transmission will begin to be apparent to testing after 5-7 days, a few days later the hospitalisations will begin to go up and then a rise in fatalities will come 2-4 weeks later. It makes any measures difficult to implement, because it will take a few weeks to see if they have any impact and longer to see the true lasting picture - which may be too uncertain for some to accept, hence we see hurried measures tossed around seemingly without care or purpose.

Fatalities are a harsh reality, those with underlying health conditions and/or the elderly are capable of being killed from any common virus and not just covid (data in the initial wave of the virus did not put risk of death significantly higher than all but the top age brackets) - deaths will rise this time of year as virus transmission increases and there needs to be more comparison with normal death rates (ideally a per year basis and not an average, as strong/weak flu seasons can seriously skew the 5 year average that was being used as a baseline earlier in the pandemic) to see just how much of an impact covid is truly having vs. seasonal conditions. But you still need to find a way to isolate the impact of the containment measures from that data - it's important to know if the disease is indeed worse than the "cure".

Finally there is talk of "long covid" which I think important to put into perspective. A standard viral chest infection can take weeks to fully recover from in a healthy individual. Pneumonia can stretch into the months. Most viruses are capable of inflicting short and long term organ damage, it just isn't usually screened for unless complications arise. Anyone who has been on a ventilator will likely suffer health effects for even longer and may have mild delirium (or similar pschological symptoms). Anecdotal evidence of healthy people being badly impacted gains a media focus due to the nature of pandemic reporting and with this being a new virus to humams it is right that there is a post-recovery focus in healthcare. However all of this reported under "long covid" is not unique to covid-19 and happens on a regular basis - it just doesn't get a focus in the public consciousness. That the true picture will not emerge for months is reason for continued caution but the anecdotal reports thus far are not reason to live in fear either.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by ZacharyB »

vol.2 wrote: Statistically, there will be far more deaths if it goes on long enough.
It's already regarded as the birth of Flu Deluxe; it isn't going away, ever. Just receding into the background for a while, to resurge and secede continually just like the normal Flu, itself born, what, 1,500 years ago? Who knows how long that one has been around. Well, here's another.

I can't remember if I posted this here or not, but the reason that diseases like measles can be controlled with a single vaccine, is because their genetic structure prevents their receptors (which allow them to gain access to cells) from mutating very much. As a result, their blueprint remains the same as the one the vaccine was modeled off of, long ago.

Things like the Flu, CoViD-19, and other viruses, like "cold" viruses (which are a slew of different viruses) aren't hindered by this design flaw, which is why new vaccines keep coiming out every year. There were 11 different mutations of CoViD-19 the last time I checked, with 2 or 3 related to the receptors. It'd be bad news if you got a vaccine modeled after one receptor, but got a CoViD infection with a different receptor. Unless they make the vaccine a cocktail of every receptor mutation that they can find.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by TransatlanticFoe »

SuperPang wrote:
system11 wrote: symptomless non-events
There's no such thing. It mostly spreads via people who are asymptomatic and eventually finds its way to those with underlying health conditions. This is why you need mass testing and contact tracing which still isn't working effectively here, so all we can do is suppress it with new measures. It's early days but it looks like this is working.

The only statistic you should really use to judge is the hospital admissions figure.
It's important to distinguish asymptomatic from pre-symptomatic, though distancing measures and face coverings apply equally as mitgation against both. Assume you have it and assume everyone else may have it.

It is known that someone is infectious for a day or two prior to developing symptoms and this delay is the most likely reason for the rapid spread.

Those who never develop symptoms are also very likely to exist and, without mass testing, their impact and proportion cannot be known. It is foolish to suggest that no symptoms = not infectious, but it is not impossible for that to be true. The reason for no symptoms is also important, is it that the virus has no route into the body for replication or that the immune system mops it up (either due to superior immune response or low viral load)?

Hospital admissions are a good indicator but do not mean covid is the reason for admission or what the person who tests positive is treated for (or ultimate dies of) - they merely mean a patient has either tested positive in hospital or has had a postiive test within 14 days. It's ony explictly stated that Scotland's hospital patients figure excludes those with a positive test whose stay is treatment for something else, so there's no reason to believe total patient figures is any better an indicator. It's all ballpark at best until the quality of data collected improves.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by P_HAT »

Crimea finally got to 100 cases per day (official information). This makes like 200-300 real cases.

In may they said "if we get to 100 per day, our medical system will collapse".

Let's see how it will work.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

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https://www.vyzrtech.com/products/bio-vyzr

https://youtu.be/RIu4W-oSZtM

I thought this was a joke until I found the link to purchase it.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by gbaplayer »

Rellay hope that the borders to the US and CAN will reopen next year in july, so i can do my postponed holiday trip from this year. -.-
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

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gbaplayer wrote:Rellay hope that the borders to the US and CAN will reopen next year in july, so i can do my postponed holiday trip from this year. -.-
Maybe. They apparently just had good news on a potential vaccine. I guess we'll see if it pans out.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by GaijinPunch »

The US midwest is getting the shit kicked out of it. Probably not the greatest idea to visit for a while.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Steamflogger Boss »

vol.2 wrote:
gbaplayer wrote:Rellay hope that the borders to the US and CAN will reopen next year in july, so i can do my postponed holiday trip from this year. -.-
Maybe. They apparently just had good news on a potential vaccine. I guess we'll see if it pans out.
Shocked by the timing of that announcement.
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Re: COVID-19 in your part of the world

Post by Turrican »

well, we bounced back at #1 today, with another 623 daily victims reported in Italy.

Just in case you don't see me posting again...
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