Prelude to the Apocalypse

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Iran War. When.

2021
3
4%
2022-2025
23
32%
2026-2030
9
13%
2031-2040
6
8%
2041-2050
1
1%
Never
29
41%
 
Total votes: 71

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antron
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by antron »

BryanM wrote:Christ is it ever not true.
Cruz led her Jan into April. That mostly covers winter into spring, like I said.
BryanM wrote:And of course these are optimistic numbers for them. Once they have more exposure and scrutiny, their performance would erode.
You don't know that. I don't see how they could perform as poorly as Trump with the general electorate. And yes the trends for Paul, Christie and Bush were optimistic, but we really don't have data into spring, and in winter they just climbed up to her, so my claim is off there.
Last edited by antron on Thu Aug 04, 2016 12:46 pm, edited 6 times in total.
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Bitter Almonds
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Bitter Almonds »

If they keep pouncing on the bribes cain took while in office, it could potentially erode. Now, the demorats have two politicians who are corporate puppets who only represent the 1%.
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BryanM
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BryanM »

antron wrote:Cruz led her Jan into April. That mostly covers winter into spring, like I said.
1. No, he wasn't. A few cheery picked polls excluding the ones he loses (which we don't do, because we're not Nate Silver) give him +1.5 if you cheat massively in his favor.

2. The election is in November of 2016.

3. By then everyone would realize he's a creepy serial killer.
You don't know that.
Yeah, I do. It's called history. There's absolutely no reason to think they'd have any better success using the same platform and personalities as Paul Ryan did. Quite the opposite, as there is always a smaller share of the electorate that's white people (the only voting bloc they win) every cycle.

Almost all of these fake plastic men you're talking about make my fucking skin crawl, so this is an altogether bizarre conversation to begin with. The real election was decided in the dem primary where less than 5% of the country voted. So good job, America.
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antron
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by antron »

Look at the Cruz vs Clinton RCP average graph, and click the 6 month range button.
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quash
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by quash »

Why are you trying to apply conventional methodology to an unconventional election?

We have not even had the first debate yet. If you think for a moment that Trump's dips in the polls are a coincidence, go Google what a news cycle is. If you don't see the strategic value in deliberately lowering your position before big events such as conventions and debates, you probably shouldn't bother with polls to begin with.
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Bitter Almonds
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Bitter Almonds »

Nobody likes ted cruhz.
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BryanM
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BryanM »

antron wrote:Look at the Cruz vs Clinton RCP average graph, and click the 6 month range button.
1. No, he wasn't. A few cheery picked polls excluding the ones he loses (which we don't do, because we're not Nate Silver) give him +1.5 if you cheat massively in his favor.
Why don't you, like, actually spend two seconds to look at the data with your eyes. The totality of your premise is shouldered by a single Fox News poll where he was +7. Taken during the butt crack of the new year. A time for a terrible sampling frame.

Why am I the only person on the planet willing to glance at numbers. They won't kill you. Jesus.
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antron
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by antron »

I see no need to pick that out. The Feb bump looks isolated from new year. Not that 4th-7th is new year. It was the work week, with many back in school.

But I don't see the need to discuss it anymore. I admit it's not that significant of a lead, and not for long.
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Rob
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Rob »

quash wrote:Every time a Saiyan gets within inches of death, he comes back stronger.

Trump has the Chaos Emeralds, he just hasn't felt like using them yet.

This isn't even his final form.
Can you request account deletion when he loses?
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Mischief Maker
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Mischief Maker »

Goddamn! Down 10 points in the Fox News poll!

The problem with Teflon (Don) is if you get it too hot, it melts down into poison gas.
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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quash
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by quash »

Rob wrote:"delete ur account lel"
Aren't you the guy who made those funny videos some years ago?

What happened?
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Rob
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Rob »

Aren't you the guy who made those funny videos some years ago?
Now I can't be internet-rude to you anymore - damn you. 8)
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BIL
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BIL »

I'll stash a SECRET ANTI-ROB WEAPON here ;3
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ED-057
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by ED-057 »

fighting bankruptcy by moonlight
winning golf games by daylight
never running from a twitter fight
he is the one called Donald Trump

he wants to make America great again
unlike Clinton who should be confined to the pen
democrats say that he's a has-been
he is the one called Donald Trump
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Mischief Maker
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Mischief Maker »

ED-057 wrote:fighting bankruptcy by moonlight
Six times!
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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Astraea FGA Mk. I
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Astraea FGA Mk. I »

It seems I am invisible, it feels like high school all over again.

I believe that Donald J. Trump should win this election and be the next president of the United States.
Please quote this post.
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BryanM
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BryanM »

Astraea FGA Mk. I wrote:It seems I am invisible, it feels like high school all over again.

I believe that Donald J. Trump should win this election and be the next president of the United States.
Please quote this post.
I think he'd make an excellent fraud president in a long line of fraud presidents. I am looking forward to the day he signs his fraud name on the very, very real Trans Atlantic Trump Pact. (TATP)
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Specineff
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Specineff »

Bah, ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha ha...

http://townhall.com/columnists/waynegru ... e-n2199564

BAH HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA... (10 pages) HA HA HA HA HA HA!

:lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol: :lol:
Don't hold grudges. GET EVEN.
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BulletMagnet
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BulletMagnet »

What a disgrace - just look at all those Wall Street fat cats on Hillary's economic team! It's confirmed - she's totally bought and paid for! She's working for them, not us! And furthermore...huh?

*squints, checks headline again*

...nah, the big mean unfair media must be trying to pull the wool over my eyes again.
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quash
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by quash »

Thanks for Correcting The Record™.
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BryanM
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BryanM »

BulletMagnet wrote:What a disgrace - just look at all those Wall Street fat cats on Hillary's economic team! It's confirmed - she's totally bought and paid for! She's working for them, not us! And furthermore...huh?

*squints, checks headline again*

...nah, the big mean unfair media must be trying to pull the wool over my eyes again.
Being murdered by someone who's supposed to be your friend and protector is betrayal.

Being murdered by someone who's supposed to be your enemy is expected.
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BulletMagnet
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BulletMagnet »

BryanM wrote:Being murdered by someone who's supposed to be your friend and protector is betrayal.

Being murdered by someone who's supposed to be your enemy is expected.
First off, you've been banging the drum harder than anyone over what a monster Hillary is and always has been, I'm not sure who's supposed to be under any delusion that she's somehow "betrayed" anybody out of the blue.

Second, news flash: nobody running for office, especially high office, is anybody's "friend or protector", and if you're expecting one to ever show up, or even come close (sorry, Bernie wasn't it either), you'll never cast a vote in your life. The only people who believe that The Ideal And Genuine Candidate exists are the ones who are duped over and over again by shameless assclowns like Trump.

The point of democracy is not to pave the way for the second coming of Christ to eventually ascend to his rightful place, it's a means for ordinary people to force the powerful to at least sometimes do their bidding, but it only works to any extent if the former are willing to acknowledge that the latter are all ordinary, corruptible people just like them, and all need to be watched closely and reacted to vigorously (the same goes for the free market and its own gatekeepers, though even fewer people these days acknowledge its particularly glaring state of imperfection). If too many people stick their noses up in the air and refuse to participate because they don't want to get their hands dirty, the whole mess falls apart, and you wind up with Election 2000 and its disastrous aftermath; as I've said multiple times before, if you still insist on going the purist's route, then you can also spend the next four years justifying the countless lives and livelihoods that will be decimated in exchange for your detached, self-righteous lulz.
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Bitter Almonds
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Bitter Almonds »

Then shrillary should have no problems with releasing those goldmansacks speech transcripts 8)
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quash
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by quash »

I've said before that I don't expect a Trump presidency to change everything, but it would at least get the government working towards a different set of goals than running the country into the ground.

Do you think at the rate things are going, with all the acts of terrorism, mounting tensions amongst the world's superpowers, etc., that the path we're on is going to give us another four years to correct course?

BM said earlier that Hillary is running on Obama's legacy. I disagree with that for a number of reasons, but let's just assume that is the case. Obama's left us a world more unstable than it's been in almost a century, with the path in front of us looking grim no matter what. Granted, it was Cheney and co. who spent a decade setting the stage for this mess, but it was Obama and Hillary who took it in an unprecedented direction with the destabilizing of numerous countries and passive attitudes towards other superpowers.

Like it or not, Syria is our problem; Obama has done his damnedest to kick that can down the road, and it's going to come back to bite us in a big way, especially if Hillary wins. We're talking a three-pronged Middle East campaign that would inevitably lead to a larger fight against Russia.

As for NATO: if Europe refuses to defend itself from within, let them rot. We learned just recently how much we can count on "secular" Islamic nations to not jump on any opportunity for a power grab. Europe will live and die by its demographics, whether you want to acknowledge it or not.
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Lord Satori
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Lord Satori »

Why do people always feel the need to blame Current President X for problems that have built up over a great deal of time?
BryanM wrote:You're trapped in a haunted house. There's a ghost. It wants to eat your friends and have sex with your cat. When forced to decide between the lives of your friends and the chastity of your kitty, you choose the cat.
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Mischief Maker
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Mischief Maker »

BulletMagnet wrote:Second, news flash: nobody running for office, especially high office, is anybody's "friend or protector", and if you're expecting one to ever show up, or even come close (sorry, Bernie wasn't it either)
We keep getting these posts where people imply that Bernie Sanders was a business as usual politician as corrupt as any major party candidate, I keep asking for citations or arguments to back that up, and I keep getting nothing in reply. Meanwhile there are hours and hours (days even?) of CSPAN footage going back for decades of Bernie Sanders doing the right thing, saying the right thing, predicting just the very disasters that happened. Hell, when he released his tax returns they showed he was one of the poorest (well least-rich) serving Senators today.

I think the majority of registered Democrat primary voters fucked up just as badly as the Republican primary voters. We had the best presidential candidate the Democrats offered since FDR but they chickened out, running to Hillary "sure thing" Clinton. Which is ironic because while she's up in the polls this week, make no mistake, her victory is entirely in the hands of Donald Trump's campaign. If his staff kidnap him and lock him in a cell for the next three months with no internet or media contact, she may very well see that lead evaporate because the spotlight will be back on her, the safe choice.
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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BulletMagnet
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BulletMagnet »

BM said earlier that Hillary is running on Obama's legacy.
I'm not sure I ever actually voiced that, but I suppose I more or less agree with the notion, so it's pretty much a moot point. Much more importantly:
quash wrote:I've said before that I don't expect a Trump presidency to change everything, but it would at least get the government working towards a different set of goals than running the country into the ground.
Even ignoring the various parts of your summary of world affairs that I would strongly disagree with (I really don't get where this whole "if you criticize anything Russia does, you totally want to go to war against them" thing comes from), why do you think I bothered to mention that Trump is hiring on the same Wall Street types Hillary has been criticized for being too close to? Or the fact that he (tell me even you didn't see this one coming) went back on his promise to self-fund his campaign, and is now courting the same big-money donors and special interests as everyone else? Or that, just as his formerly-opposed opponents are now endorsing him, he's now endorsing Ryan, McCain and others he's previously disparaged as unfit for office? Or, of especial note to a purported foreign policy buff like yourself, that he's also gathering huge chunks of Bush's foreign policy advisors that, in your own words, "set the stage for this mess"?

If you truly do believe that things are so bad that we need to basically burn the whole thing down (a view that I personally find both utterly devoid of any wider context and slathered in a nauseating amount of self-pity, but I digress), that we need someone to "take on the establishment" even if he has to break a whole bunch of eggs to make the proverbial omelet, and (correctly) believe that Clinton is not that person, why would you deign to pick someone who has profited so lavishly from this same much-maligned status quo for his entire life, circumvented it countless times to escape responsibility (let alone consequences) for so many actions, and even as he insists that he's finally ready to shake things up continues to wallow ever deeper in the very same institutions and individuals who have allowed him to be who he is? Oh, and intends to give them all an absolutely massive tax cut?

The only "difference" in this area that I've heard you - or anyone else - put forth when it comes to Hillary and the Establishment vs. Trump and the Establishment is that Trump "must not mean it", and must intend to throw all of his pals and backers under the bus as soon as the election's over. And the only "evidence" I've seen to "support" that notion is that he's less "politically correct" than she is - i.e. that somehow his more aggressive application of the Establishment's "southern strategy" to hoodwink people into voting against their own economic interests somehow means he's the one who will finally buck the decades-long trend. Sorry, but out here in the strange, scary realm of History And Factual Information Might Be Worth Taking Into Consideration that sort of feeble "reasoning" is the peak of willful self-delusion.
Then shrillary should have no problems with releasing those goldmansacks speech transcripts
If she's smart, she'll make Trump an offer: I'll release the transcripts if you release your tax returns (off to the side, if anyone's wondering where the latter tradition comes from, here's some history - feel free to draw incredibly obvious parallels). There's no way in hell he'd have the balls to call her on it.
We keep getting these posts where people imply that Bernie Sanders was a business as usual politician as corrupt as any major party candidate, I keep asking for citations or arguments to back that up, and I keep getting nothing in reply.
"As corrupt as anyone else", no - heaven knows I agree with him on a bunch of things myself, if nothing else. But too many of his supporters, in my view, treated him much as Trump's supporters treat him, i.e. as The One And Only Acceptable Guy, which meant that any and all criticism of him (I'm still plenty sore at the ludicrously rosy economic numbers his campaign insisted on using - and I generally concur with him on economics...though others focused more on his gun control votes in particular) must be the result of a media conspiracy, that any polls and/or elections that don't go his way must have been fraudulent, and that voting for any "alternative" to him is the equivalent of selling your soul to the devil. I'm glad that he managed to pull Hillary to the left on several issues, and hope he and others continue to do so, but the notion that he would have been able to work all manner of magic, in terms of both electability and policy, that Hillary could only dream of, smacks just as much now of wishful thinking as it did in real time. Whichever side of the aisle you're talking about, whenever I hear cries of Finally, The One Who Will Change Everything I'm immediately skeptical, and as much common ground as I have with Bernie I still am.
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BryanM
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by BryanM »

BulletMagnet wrote:Second, news flash: nobody running for office, especially high office, is anybody's "friend or protector", and if you're expecting one to ever show up, or even come close (sorry, Bernie wasn't it either)
AHA!

Your true colors have been shown.

Bernie is a friend of the working class. You are a friend of the bourgeois.

Good job. Explains why you have such a weird partisan boner for Hillary.
If too many people stick their noses up in the air and refuse to participate because they don't want to get their hands dirty
"Things will never get better so vote for things to keep getting worse, and be happy about it, plebian snob."

Which of us is the nihilist, again???!
I'm glad that he managed to pull Hillary to the left on several issues
HAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Oh my god. Seriously.
the notion that he would have been able to work all manner of magic, in terms of both electability and policy, that Hillary could only dream of
Yeah. He would have.

Not in one election cycle. He wouldn't be able to do jack shit but advertise his anti-plutocratic ideas in his first 4 years. Besides the powers inherent to the office - trust-busting the banks, blocking the TPP, and some influence on how we conduct our wars. Oh, and not putting Republicans on the supreme court like Obama and Clinton.

He would have sat the stage for the next 20 years, as the 50 and under crowd was on his side. (Which would be the 70 and under crowd 20 years from now.) Much like FDR and Ronald Reagan set the policy decades ahead of them. Calling FDR and Ronald Reagan christ-like doesn't do them justice - because they were real.
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EmperorIng
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by EmperorIng »

fucking lol. socialists man, you can't take them anywhere. 8)
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Giest118
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Re: Trump: A real American Hero Dude

Post by Giest118 »

Go start an armed rebellion if you want to change things. Abstaining from voting ain't gonna do shit. :V
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