Prelude to the Apocalypse

[Skykid]

Sure. The issue is that this can and will lead to claims that very clearly encroach on another nation's territorial waters. The empirical proof of ownership is proximity to a nation's land, 12nm to be exact. Spratly is already coming damn close to this.

Close perhaps, but the point is it hasn't breached proximity, therefore the dispute is who owns the waters it's in now. You're basing your claims of future war on what's currently only a heated discussion, one which could amble on for an eternity before a resolution is reached unless someone decides to let loose a volley of missiles on Chinese vessels or land, which is pretty much unthinkable.

While I agree on principle that the alliance between China and Russia is strong, in this particular case it may not be in the best interest of either party for them to get too involved

I assure you principle has nothing to do with anything. Fight China you fight Russia, and vise versa. I'm willing to guarantee it.

It's rumored that a China/Russia vs US/NATO conflict has been in the planning for quite some time now. Plans do change, however the economic expansion of the former and the reluctance to go all in of the latter would likely prevent such a large scale conflict from occurring, at least for awhile.

Well that's really the point I've been making. No one is really interested in much except economic expansion at the moment, and the alliance between these two is strong enough to encourage pretty much everyone not to do anything brazen. I think things are stable and safe, generally, which is why your confidence in impending conflict seems so extreme.

[quash]

Things are as safe as they can be with the US around. Otherwise, China would have already drained all of their neighbors dry.

Again, I'm not predicting a large scale conflict. I am predicting a skirmish that leads to a few more before the decision is made either way whether escalation is worth it.

[Strikers1945guy]

A China & Russia tag team alliance is a very real threat. Nothing is going to come of it in the near future but if ever it did I'd be pretty nervous. Weapons are one thing, number of disposable bodies is another. China has both. Then add mother Russia in the mix.

[Skykid]

Things are as safe as they can be with the US around. Otherwise, China would have already drained all of their neighbors dry.

You guys are really suffering Cartman's paranoia over there. Watch less news. Relax more.

A China & Russia tag team alliance is a very real threat. Nothing is going to come of it in the near future but if ever it did I'd be pretty nervous. Weapons are one thing, number of disposable bodies is another. China has both. Then add mother Russia in the mix.

Which is exactly the reason not to worry. The US may be the twentieth century's greatest warmongers, but even they'll reel it in against ludicrous odds. They prefer frying smaller fish with big resources.

[BryanM]

Why we still



when we should be

[ED-057]

I need some help with my symbolism. If China is a dragon, and Russia is a bear, what is the USA?

A big, fat pig? A hyena? A deadly plague? I dunno.

[ED-057]

Why we still

Toking up at Burning Man?

when we should be

Pretending that we're not smitten with the redhead?

[Rob]

If China is a dragon, and Russia is a bear, what is the USA?

[Xyga]

If China is a dragon, and Russia is a bear, what is the USA?

[Rob]

Dammit, yes. America's symbol is appropriately an animal it tried to exterminate.

[Bananamatic]

I need some help with my symbolism. If China is a dragon, and Russia is a bear, what is the USA?

[Ed Oscuro]

An obscenity. The South had no problem treading on the north when it came to the Fugitive Slave Act.

Pretty soon we'll be here:

Aypledgli ianectu flaggen tupep kile for stahn

I think Trump would be pretty comfortable with the "only for the eyes of a chief" rule.

[quash]

Things are as safe as they can be with the US around. Otherwise, China would have already drained all of their neighbors dry.

You guys are really suffering Cartman's paranoia over there. Watch less news. Relax more.

All it would take for this to escalate into something bigger would be for China to determine that it is worth risking their current status to gain more. Which, granted, I don't think they'll do after they see firsthand how difficult it will be to get the US out of the region, but on the other side of this equation is our own issues with the defense budget and our willingness to hold out. Hence why I'm keeping my prediction at a small conflict in the near future, not WW3 twenty years from now.

But then why worry about a small conflict, you ask? Because particularly for Japan it could still cause catastrophic losses if China exploits the fact that they can't leave their territorial waters. The US would have to double down to pick up the slack and Japan would have no choice but to increase defense spending.

[Ed Oscuro]

Donald Trump: Bigger than Question Mark Suit Guy.

[Strikers1945guy]

So cruz just dropped out of the race. Really thought he would fight to the end regardless of his dignity.

My son Ted and his family spent six months in prayer seeking God's will for this decision. But the day the final green light came on, the whole family was together. It was a Sunday. We were all at his church, First Baptist Church in Houston, including his senior staff. After the church service, we all gathered at the pastor's office. We were on our knees for two hours seeking God's will. At the end of that time, a word came through his wife, Heidi. And the word came, just saying, "Seek God's face, not God's hand." And I'll tell you, it was as if there was a cloud of the holy spirit filling that place. Some of us were weeping, and Ted just looked up and said, "Lord, here am I, use me. I surrender to you, whatever you want." And he felt that was a green light to move forward

Welp

He can't help himself in his step down speach

"...I will not stop defending the judo Christian values that built our nation..."

Uhh

Treaty of Tripoli 1796

"the Government of the United States of America is not, in any sense, founded on the Christian religion."

[BryanM]

Can't have a white christian terrorist nation without cult leaders lusting to feast upon the genitals of the non-believers.

What's really creepy about Cruz is how much his daughters seem to hate his guts. We understand - he's Ted Cruz.

But I worry about the child abuse, too. Ivanka probably only had to put up with some face licking and dry humping. There's no telling what the Zodiac Killer has been doing with his kids.

[antron]

Now excuse me while I punch my wife in the face. And here's an elbow for good measure.

[Ed Oscuro]

And here's an elbow for good measure.

Hmm. /r/edditors seem to think Cruz's MO could explain some things...

Edit: most relevant bit

[Xyga]

Aww, Lucifer-with-puppy-eyes lost the race.

[Mischief Maker]

Now excuse me while I punch my wife in the face. And here's an elbow for good measure.

Yeah, but it looks like she's going to follow up with a spinning piledriver.

[BryanM]

I hope someone appoints me VP of imaginationland, too.

[antron]

Let the nerds rock you to sleep:
http://election.princeton.edu/2016/05/0 ... more-15484

the probability that Trump can catch up by November is 9%, and the probability that Clinton will remain ahead of Trump is 91%

Interesting that historically polls taken now are more predictive than the ones that will be taken this summer.

The only thing I see that will be different from past elections is the ferociousness. I don't think past candidates have gone the extreme that trump will go to. Think accusations of cold blooded murder during a debate. Personally I don't think it will work in the end.

Edit: Sam Wang later added this:

Note: I have found a problem with this calculation. The national-poll-based Clinton win probability is closer to 70%. I will have an update and explanation soon.

So much for sleeping...

[BulletMagnet]

Classy as ever.

[BryanM]

the probability that Trump can catch up by November is 9%

And Bush was completely underground until the last minute in 2004.



There's a confluence of factors that probably disproportionally suppress his numbers and raise Clinton's. I'm on team that says his "9%" chance of coming ahead of her in the vote is in the same vein of Sanders's 9% chance of winning Indiana and 0% chance of winning Michigan.

There's just so many goddamn ways to win this thing. Support a higher minimum wage, oppose her trade deals, support universal medicare, stick with the need to have a wall but ditch the overtly racist rhetoric, put the woman who was raped as a little girl that Hillary called a slut in an ad with pictures of her as a kid while sad music plays, jesus christ is she an easy person to beat.

I'd like to see some more probing in Colorado. There's only been one poll and it says Trump wins that state; A democrat that can't even take Colorado is a disgrace, no matter how much it might run up the score in Oregon, New York and California.

[BulletMagnet]

If "terrible/unpopular things from one's past" is a measure of vulnerability, methinks Trump is at least a match for Clinton in that area (and he seems far more eager to continue to add to his personal list than she does, and infinitely less eager to acknowledge, let alone apologize for, any of it); frankly, the main "x factor" I'm worried about is the ongoing resurgence and normalization of The Clinton Rules (No evidence of wrongdoing? We'll make some up!) when it comes to media coverage/analysis. Not to mention she doesn't get most of her de facto advertising for free.

[EmperorIng]

As if past wrongdoings and refusal to apologize have hurt Trump before, lol.

That twitter post is funny, as it feels like not only is it made in genuine innocence or cluelessness, but that the fact that people are frothing at the mouth over a picture of Trump eating a taco shows how completely he is going to dominate everyone's consciousness for the next several months. That type of grip on the public imagination gives him such a headstart that those 9% predictions are laughable.

I can at least say at this point that all of my preferred candidates are no longer running for president. Sorry Gary Johnson; I'm not convinced that you aren't an alien yet.

[Rob]

As if past wrongdoings and refusal to apologize have hurt Trump before, lol.

Yeah... it has. He's widely disliked. Gonna be tough when most women hate him and the other candidate is a woman - she can even be Hillary Clinton.

[Ed Oscuro]

Trump isn't going anywhere. Sure, he's running an unusual campaign - but that doesn't mean that the polls will be misleading, like '64 or '80.

I won't try to explain away the Bush-Kerry campaign chart, but I will say that Trump won't have the establishment pulling for him. He might not need it with Swifterism and Trutherism rampant, but it also might not help given how badly he's viewed by most of the public.

I also noticed an interesting comment on the blog antron posted claiming that Hilary won among registered Dems in the turnout. I don't agree with the proposed explanations (payback for Romney? lol) and ultimately it doesn't much matter, since just as Bernie was pulling a great number of independents to vote in the MI primary, so will Hilary pull a lot of people to vote for not being locked in a room with Trump for 8 years.

Strong money on Hilary winning, here.

[Mischief Maker]

And Bush was completely underground until the last minute in 2004.

That minute was the "Swift Boat Veterans for Truth" ad. Speaking of free advertising, newspapers all over the country were publishing transcripts of that political ad as front-page articles above the fold. Meanwhile, DNC chairman Terry McAuliffe was running a campaign strategy that completely underestimated how much money Kerry could raise vs Bush, so they decided to keep relatively silent in the media until October when they would have a huge media explosion to match Bush. Unfortunately that meant not answering the (false) accusations of the Swift Boaters and causing a number of people to come to negative opinions of Kerry long before he had a chance to say his peace.

[Ed Oscuro]

I think the short way of answering that graph is that antron's link isn't saying "100% confidence Hilary wins." There's a 9% chance Trump wins, given the current polling and historical model.