Lopenator wrote:ldeveraux wrote:
I think you should wait for your N64D, because chances of there ever being another group buy are zero.
Will we all get a refund ?
This is the part I'm concerned about. No worried yet. Updates to the spreadsheet and kits being installed/delivered is progress. So that rightly earns them confidence points. But will it continue to the end of the list? That's where my confidence ends.
If they had to refund everyone now, could they? Or perhaps, "how many people will the Turners have to pay Out of pocket to refund and will they be able to when that day inevitably comes?"
I asked politely about profits. CZroe said they aren't making a profit on kits. Okay, fine. What I really want to know is how they're paying the workshop's rent if their personal finances are so dire. If they aren't making a profit on kits/installations/cables...something...then how can they pay overhead? Given their public statements about personal finances after the disaster, it doesn't seem likely they can pay out of pocket. Which gives rise to worry about misappropriation of entrusted funds (embezzlement). I'M NOT SAYING THEY DID! Maybe it's all on credit cards and loans. IDK, that's why I asked.
But since there hasn't been an answer to that question or a POF, it is time to escalate the rhetoric and spell out the concerns that require a POF to alleviate.
Asking whether or not "everyone" will get their kits is a poignant question. Another way to ask it is, are the kits being delivered to customers now being paid for with funds entrusted by customers further down the list? Unless all the money is tangable (kit on hand, ordered from Marshall, or money in an account), the answer depends upon profits OR the Turner's personal finances. If they are truly not making a profit then they will have to increase the price or the money will run out before "everyone" gets their kit. And if they raise prices, that means that everyone left on the list is subsidizing the cost of the turners business expense under false pretense. There would be an issue of misappropriation to address. I don't think anyone would have felt safe joining this GB if they knew funds were going to be used to pay rent for their workshop. Not unless they felt confident that the turners would make sufficient profit to still be in business by the time their kit would ship. And lets be honest. If they're a small business making profit, they should get a loan from a bank and sell kits already ordered or on hand.
The Turners advertised this as a pool of money to attract a purchase order. That's still their position. It was never supposed to be a small business loan. That's what banks are for.
I'm not saying anything nefarious is happening, but if entrusted funde were used to pay bills it "may" explain why they can't refund everyone now and why they can't provide POF without admitting guilt. They might have switched to a business model without telling everyone in the hopes it'd prevent making an bad situation worse (it would definitely piss people off). The way to know is if they start asking more at the point of contact. When you're up to bat they ask for $20 more before they can ship. That more is needed to include the DAC or because the final price was higher than they originally estimated. Better yet, hiding the profit margin in shipping.
This could be a legitimate extra expense or a way to cover the misappropriation. How would we know? When faced with the prospect of finally getting your kit after 2-3 years of waiting, you're more likely to agree to this seemingly reasonable request for more money.
That's pure speculation and goes away if the entrusted funds are intact. A POF would answer that question definitively. Otherwise we have to "trust" them and hope for the best, like good little sheeple. "Shhhh, good little sheeple. I'm not fleecing you!"
It's been 2 weeks and still no answer. Over a month since I first brought the topic of POF up. They're busy, I get that. It's why I set an arbitrary 1 month as a reasonable amount time for them to get it done (it's not hard, unless you don't have the money). I said by October I'll start to worry. After that a non-answer will tell a disciplined investor everything they need to know. Namely, not to touch them with a 10" pole without a lawyer present.
"Banned user" was correct in calling that a Ponzi scheme. I don't think they intended for it to turn out that way. And I'm not convinced it's happening...yet! At any point, a legitimate business can unintentionally become a Ponzi scheme. I doubt very many Ponzi scheems intended to become one from the start. They morph into one when unless one is very careful not to touch that escrow account for anything except paying Marshall. "Banned User" was a dick about it and jumped to conclusions too quickly, then went on a tantrum that got him banned. He was blowing the whistle at a wave that look like a shark fin, before getting out the binoculars to be sure. Digging in his heels when he got called out for it is what got him banned.
He was completely right to be concerned, but jumping to conclusions helps nobody! Everyone should be concerned by what "look like a shark fin." The Turners can prove they still have the money or the kits. Or they can refuse to provide POF in a reasonable period of time. After that time has elapsed people are be completely within their rights to seek a legal resolution if they still refuse to refund. Anything short of that not likely to accomplish anything (Paypal is beyond the dispute resolution window for most users. And good luck getting your credit card company to issue a charge back on a purchase from 2 years ago). Even a legal battle might not accomplish anything and cost you much more than you lost. You should be prepared to accept that money is gone and nothing can be done about it. That there will be no consequences for the Turners. The world isn't always fair.
TL;DR
1) POF shows the money is still available and proves their innocence. Or...
2) They admit to misappropriation of funds and accept the consequences (how many times in history has that happened?). Or...
3) Admit nothing. Have a hidden profit margin to pay for future kits and avoid accountability. AKA, stall...stall...stall and hope it turns out okay in the end.
Without #1, there is a high likelihood people at the end of the list will be SOL when the time comes. Or if they get the formula for #3 right, it's possible to calculate exactly how much each user will need to pay extra to pay for the remaining customer's kit/refund. Then hide the cost in shipping, DAC, or extra charge because the initial estimate was low. Some legitimate sounding reason that's not the truth. Otherwise users could see #3 is happening by posting exactly what they paid and the services selected. If that price increases over time, then we'd know. However, shipping varies according to the customer. How can you know it doesn't cost that much to ship? They can adjust their installation fee on the fly all they want (that's their prerogative). There's no way for you know they're raising the fee to subsidize future kits/refunds. They have plausible deniability.
Here's a philosophical question for you. Obviously the last 50 users will care if they get screwed because the turners go bankrupt before they get them a kit or refund. But, at the end of this, if everyone either gets a refund or a kit, will anyone care how the Turners got there? Each day that goes by without POF one is another day for them to charge Paul more to pay for John's kit/refund. If they stall long enough and get #3 right, we may never know if they dipped into entrusted funds and had to overcharge later customers to make up the difference.
In the mean time, you'll just have to sprinkle pixie dust, think happy thoughts, and fly high in ignorant bliss while getting fleeced, like good little sheeple. Or not! They could be on the Up'n Up...IDK. Only time, or a timely POF, would answer this definitively.