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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 4:07 am 


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Location: Western-MA USA
The state I live in has closed schools for 3 weeks, that means I'm out of a job/paycheck until things are back to normal. Thankfully I have a small safety net, not sure about some of my colleages however. What is more worrysome to me is how kids who rely on 2 meals a day at school will get fed, while parents can't afford childcare. What a shit show.

It looks like NYC is totally shutting down bars/restaurants (maybe they are allowed to do food delivery only). Can't imagine how many people are going to be fucked for income... at least the banks will get bailouts for the stock market crash :evil:

As for buying hysteria, I can't say I blame people much. It's a consumer culture, what else are people going to do to feel safe/prepared? Personally I'm stocked for 2-3 months if I go into survival mode: 1/2 cup of beans, quinoa, handful of nuts per/day... I have a shit load of carrots and vinegar and other things that I can preserve/freeze if I have to.

Would not surprise me in the least if after the 3 week reassessment period things are actually much worse.
Silver lining folks, people might rethink what they are comfortable comprimising after this in terms of national leadership, healthcare system, and materialistic self centered ideologies (maybe that's a bit too hopefuly). :wink:

Hang in there folks!
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 11:11 am 


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Pretty much the scene at my local ALDI stores on Saturday
https://youtu.be/VTn74CgTuFk
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:00 pm 


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chempop wrote:
As for buying hysteria, I can't say I blame people much. It's a consumer culture, what else are people going to do to feel safe/prepared? Personally I'm stocked for 2-3 months if I go into survival mode: 1/2 cup of beans, quinoa, handful of nuts per/day... I have a shit load of carrots and vinegar and other things that I can preserve/freeze if I have to.


If it does go all tits-up and you are in a large city such as NY then I doubt you'll have much protection. A city is the last place that I'd want to be in if it all goes down the pan.

However, this isn't going to happen.

I agree: have enough food to keep things going and get on top of 'home chores' whilst all this shut-down is taking place.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:01 pm 


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Mills wrote:
Pretty much the scene at my local ALDI stores on Saturday
https://youtu.be/VTn74CgTuFk

Tossers.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:28 pm 


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I'm too afraid to try a bidet. My bum is a wreck. I scratch my butt in my sleep and it gets super raw. I'm afraid the bidet stream with be like (insert favorite sidescroller weapon) on my sore butt. I think this was a curse on me for being a bad child.

I went to Aldi's this weekend to get a pizza 'cause that's what I do every weekend. Sold out! So I ate burgers and got diarrhea, which is a horrible curse to have right now when you can't stop shitting your guts out.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:42 pm 


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drauch wrote:
I'm too afraid to try a bidet. My bum is a wreck. I scratch my butt in my sleep and it gets super raw. I'm afraid the bidet stream with be like (insert favorite sidescroller weapon) on my sore butt. I think this was a curse on me for being a bad child.

I went to Aldi's this weekend to get a pizza 'cause that's what I do every weekend. Sold out! So I ate burgers and got diarrhea, which is a horrible curse to have right now when you can't stop shitting your guts out.

Speaking of bum on seats
https://youtu.be/m03vP9_bb64
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 1:43 pm 



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Books/videogames/etc. backlogs are also handy. Are you people discovering your need to be extrovert, outdoorsy types in this kind of situation? That would be...interesting.

If you can work remotely/from home, work will keep the mind busy in a healthy manner, for once. And then once more...anyone younger than 70 with proper hygiene and a mask/gloves sets shouldn't worry too much, and should not be at risk of being dangerous to elders.

Besides, body weight training go be easily done at home, and if no one is around, sneaking outside to go running may be a piece of cake. Not that I have seen hordes of people posting in the fitness thread, eh.

drauch wrote:
I'm too afraid to try a bidet. My bum is a wreck. I scratch my butt in my sleep and it gets super raw. I'm afraid the bidet stream with be like (insert favorite sidescroller weapon) on my sore butt. I think this was a curse on me for being a bad child.


You are getting it all wrong, son. Get a fancypants otaku bidet with super-gentle jets, and you will suddenly discover the joys of hygiene coupled with a kind touch for your ravaged butt. My younger sister-in-law has one in which you can fill up a mini-tank with soap or lotions, and then use the jet to gently get the relevant treatment (It should be Daewoo: the in-laws are S. Korean).

I am sure that you can even find someone who can guide you to buying a bidet for people with special needs and ravaged asses (but they are generally not cheap). Who needs sex when you can get a properly purified ass?

The general message is:

Be a better human, wash your ass with gusto!
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Last edited by Randorama on Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 2:58 pm 


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Location: Colin's Bargain Basement. Everything must go.
It's the end of March so employers are forcing us to use up all our vacation. I had two full weeks of gaming and hobbies planned, but now all schools and daycares are closed so I guess it's three full weeks of Lego Batman and Paw Patrol instead.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:24 pm 


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Sly Cherry Chunks wrote:
It's the end of March so employers are forcing us to use up all our vacation. I had two full weeks of gaming and hobbies planned, but now all schools and daycares are closed so I guess it's three full weeks of Lego Batman and Paw Patrol instead.

That's the price of success I'm afraid, my man :)
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:29 pm 


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MintyTheCat wrote:
Mills wrote:
Pretty much the scene at my local ALDI stores on Saturday
https://youtu.be/VTn74CgTuFk

Tossers.


Thankfully today I was able to go out and buy things. People were downright...reasonable...

Randorama wrote:
Books/videogames/etc. backlogs are also handy. Are you people discovering your need to be extrovert, outdoorsy types in this kind of situation? That would be...interesting.

If you can work remotely/from home, work will keep the mind busy in a healthy manner, for once. And then once more...anyone younger than 70 with proper hygiene and a mask/gloves sets shouldn't worry too much, and should not be at risk of being dangerous to elders.

Besides, body weight training go be easily done at home, and if no one is around, sneaking outside to go running may be a piece of cake. Not that I have seen hordes of people posting in the fitness thread, eh.


This has been great for my anime backlog!
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:32 pm 


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Steamflogger Boss wrote:
MintyTheCat wrote:
Mills wrote:
Pretty much the scene at my local ALDI stores on Saturday
https://youtu.be/VTn74CgTuFk

Tossers.


Thankfully today I was able to go out and buy things. People were downright...reasonable...


Well, being off unwell today I had to go out and shop once again and... they've bought up ALL the bog roll and nearly all of the pasta. This panic is very, very good for certain sectors. Perhaps we'll see a massive rush to pre-book funeral firms next? Maybe not because by that stage some folks may *just* have worked out that indeed we are not all going to die.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 3:49 pm 


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Randorama wrote:
Books/videogames/etc. backlogs are also handy. Are you people discovering your need to be extrovert, outdoorsy types in this kind of situation? That would be...interesting.

The exact opposite, I realized how much less tired I am just by working from home so as long as I don't get the virus the quarantine just gives me 1 extra hour of sleep and 1 hour saved by not going back home.

There is no real need to go outside other than for the sake of going outside


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 6:27 pm 



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At our office, the office has not yet been closed. but almost nothing works in the city, everything is quarantined, including the metro (


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:08 pm 


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These panic buyers get to vote. That slays me. These people are ill-equipped to function in any capacity, yet allowed to participate in serious decision making.

No wonder we can't fix anything.

Also, seems like millennials are all going to get the sack to pay for this. As always, spare no expense for boomers.

Seems like a quarantine for older people would make more sense than dumping the pain on young productive people.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 7:15 pm 


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Pokemon Go has done more to combat this second calamity of the apocalypse than the US has o7

Unfortunately I don't think Nintendo is going to be able to help much during the third and fourth calamities.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:06 pm 


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orange808 wrote:
Also, seems like millennials are all going to get the sack to pay for this. As always, spare no expense for boomers.


The norm is for higher paid employees (regardless of skill) to be cut when money is an issue.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:17 pm 


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Trump doesn't give two f**ks about saving humanity only saving presidential re-election
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ccine-deal
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Mon Mar 16, 2020 9:53 pm 


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Mills wrote:
Trump doesn't give two f**ks about saving humanity only saving presidential re-election


This is not news. The dems could definitely fuck it up but this is really the only threat his re-election campaign has had to face
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:14 am 


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GaijinPunch wrote:
orange808 wrote:
Also, seems like millennials are all going to get the sack to pay for this. As always, spare no expense for boomers.


The norm is for higher paid employees (regardless of skill) to be cut when money is an issue.


Yes, but I can offer some insight into how that works.

The "norm" is to find the biggest expenses on the balance sheet. The biggest expense is labor.

Not management expense. It's labor.

So, when you make cuts, you hit labor. Rank and file is the "highest paid", because it hits the bottom line hardest.

Knocking wages or laying off rank and file is the fastest way to improve profitability, because the highest paid on the bottom line is the bundled lot of plebs.

The plebs and whipping boys are the millennials.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:48 am 



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Although the Chinese government has just claimed that all is fine and 79k are now healed, WHO is offering lower numbers (70k). Whichever numbers are correct, the number of contagions stopped 2 weeks ago (on average, per province), quarantine should be lifted soon, and toilet paper is easy to find (it always was - panic buying was outlawed as soon as the mess started).

Italy will probably reach the peak in 2 weeks' time, and the number of fatalities is already in the 2.2k region, with average age remaining incredibly high. The only fatality below 80 (years) is one guy with a degenerative disease in advanced phase, who sadly was exposed to the virus.

Recovery from the virus in healthy individuals is generally slow (14 to 21 days, but numbers will vary a lot) and drugs seem to have little effect. Contagion is at 10%-ish, too.

I still have no idea about how high are some UK/US officers (and Angela Merkel) in thinking that shooting apocalyptic numbers would have been either useful or appropriate, given that the masses are impervious to facts and reason but also fear-mongering.

I don't think that this is something I would like to contract, ever, but as a stress test for humankind and governments in general it has been somehow very effective.

We'd make pretty pets (thanks to Perry Ferrell for the masterpiece!).

Bananam.: I work from home up to 4 times per week, so I know what you mean. I am productive even if I wear pj's, and if somebody needs me they can chat me up and write down what they want.

If I spend five minutes writing stuff on the forum, I am probably taking a break thinking about work matters and re-organising ideas. Which is to say, a little adulthood goes a long way, right?
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 5:04 am 


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I always gathered the toilet paper thing was lemming mentality. We(Americans) saw that it was getting short there, and panicked here for no good reason.

I'm glad it's shaping up in China. It's slowly turning into lockdown land here, and I hope it won't last long. I was really looking forward to visiting LA in April...
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 8:20 am 


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Randorama wrote:
Italy will probably reach the peak in 2 weeks' time, and the number of fatalities is already in the 2.2k region, with average age remaining incredibly high. The only fatality below 80 (years) is one guy with a degenerative disease in advanced phase, who sadly was exposed to the virus.


47.4% of deaths have been individuals under the age of 80.

Source: Instituto Superiore di Sanità

Additionally, the number of young individuals who've progressed to a severe or critical state has increased.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 9:24 am 



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Rapoon, thanks, but:

The age-block table in the document you linked to reports the following numbers (cannot be bothered to create a table, sorry):

Age (years ) Deaths [n (%)] Case Fatality Rate
0-9 0 (0%) 0%
10-19 0 (0%) 0%
20-29 0 (0%) 0%
30-39 4 (0.2%) 0.2%
40-49 9 (0.5%) 0.3%
50-59 46 (2.7%) 1%
60-69 144 (8.5%) 3.2%
70-79 602 (35.5%) 11.8%
80-89 727 (42.8%) 18.8%
>=90 165 (9.7%) 21.6%
Not reported 0 (0%) 0%
Total 1697 (100%) 6.8%

...So, 42.8%+35.5+9.7%=88% of deaths are for people over 70 years of age (with complications, apparently). "Younger" people make up the remaining 12%, with people being in the 60-69 age range forming an 8.5% of the total. So, people "younger" than 60 form the 3.5% of the deaths.

Please note that Italian newspapers appear to nevertheless avoid mentioning that a 12% of deaths is below 70 years of age.

The Case fatality rate is the "ratio of deaths from a certain disease to the total number of people diagnosed with this disease for a certain period of time" (Here).

This says nothing of what is going to happen next, but I posted a link to the numbers for the Chinese situation a few posts before. For the time being, a quick look at these tables may show the chances of croaking IF you actually contract it and have pregress illnesses.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:07 am 


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Randorama wrote:
Rapoon, thanks, but:

The age-block table in the document you linked to reports the following numbers (cannot be bothered to create a table, sorry):

Age (years ) Deaths [n (%)] Case Fatality Rate
0-9 0 (0%) 0%
10-19 0 (0%) 0%
20-29 0 (0%) 0%
30-39 4 (0.2%) 0.2%
40-49 9 (0.5%) 0.3%
50-59 46 (2.7%) 1%
60-69 144 (8.5%) 3.2%
70-79 602 (35.5%) 11.8%

80-89 727 (42.8%) 18.8%
>=90 165 (9.7%) 21.6%
Not reported 0 (0%) 0%
Total 1697 (100%) 6.8%

...So, 42.8%+35.5+9.7%=88% of deaths are for people over 70 years of age (with complications, apparently). "Younger" people make up the remaining 12%, with people being in the 60-69 age range forming an 8.5% of the total. So, people "younger" than 60 form the 3.5% of the deaths.


Thank you for corroborating what I typed. For some bewildering reason you've changed the range in your response, which has no bearing on the validity of my previous comment:

47.4% (0.2% + 0.5% + 2.7% + 8.5% + 35.5%) of deaths have been individuals under the age of 80.

Which was a direct response to your post:

Randorama wrote:
The only fatality below 80 (years) is one guy with a degenerative disease in advanced phase, who sadly was exposed to the virus.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:29 am 



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rapoon wrote:
Thank you for corroborating what I typed. For some bewildering reason you've changed in the range in your response, which has no bearing on the validity of my previous comment:

47.4% of deaths have been individuals under the age of 80.

Which was a direct response to your claim:

Randorama wrote:
The only fatality below 80 (years) is one guy with a degenerative disease in advanced phase, who sadly was exposed to the virus.


0.0006% (percentage of fatalities <80 years old) vs the reality: 47.4%


You are welcome, but I changed the range because you reported numbers I did not know, and the previous comment was about one guy sold in the Italian press as the only death below 80 years of age.

I can link you to the story, so you can read it through auto-translate, if you wish?

The numbers above show the distributions, per age brackets. Please correct me if I am wrong, but the reality is also that 88% of deaths are over 70 years of age, right? For obvious reasons I hope to be right. If you think I am overlooking/misreading something, I am all keen to know why (seriously).

...and if you think this is bewildering ("omg you are not stubbornly insisting on remaining on an untenable position!"), we've spent too much time on the internet.

Sorry, but I am also not following you, so I want see if we are on the same bandwidth. People in ITALY are dying IF they contract the virus and have pregress illnesses. We then have certain age distributions, which in the ITALIAN press are unreported.

I am 40, in China (Guandong), and healthy. You are in Texas (I guess), healthy (I hope), and XX. The numbers seem to say that we are not at risk, right now, but it is not like we should only be concerned about ourselves (of course).

Next step is?

EDIT: Whatever the case, if you wish to keep arguing believing that it is "me" vs. "you" or "being right on the internet", please ignore my messages and I will ignore yours in turn, as a courtesy. Anything else, I am all ears, ehrm, eyes.
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Last edited by Randorama on Tue Mar 17, 2020 11:02 am, edited 3 times in total.

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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 10:55 am 


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The Old Mills wrote:
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Glad you mentioned Nov 3rd, which could be Phase 3 of this Op. US West Coast. Been waiting for it for years.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 12:47 pm 


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Randorama wrote:

I am 40, in China (Guandong), and healthy. You are in Texas (I guess), healthy (I hope), and XX. The numbers seem to say that we are not at risk, right now, but it is not like we should only be concerned about ourselves (of course).

Next step is?

EDIT: Whatever the case, if you wish to keep arguing believing that it is "me" vs. "you" or "being right on the internet", please ignore my messages and I will ignore yours in turn, as a courtesy. Anything else, I am all ears, ehrm, eyes.


I had absolutely no idea we were 'arguing'! :roll:
You've repeatedly posted inaccurate claims the last 5 pages and in this instance from a disreputable source and I corrected you.

The bewildering :D aspect of your blathering is with the number is doctors, virologists, and epidemiologists that are citing reputable figures on daily basis, it takes greater effort to find disinformation than accurate info.
(i.e. "Please note that Italian newspapers appear to nevertheless avoid mentioning that a 12% of deaths is below 70 years of age." <-- that's unequivocal bullshit)

Anyways, 40 year old guy in China :?, I vehemently agree we should fuck right off and ignore each others posts.


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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 1:29 pm 



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rapoon wrote:
I had absolutely no idea we were 'arguing'! :roll:


That makes the two of us.

Please forgive me if I answer to your points below, but if you genuinely believe that you have some correct information to be reported, then I would be glad to read your posts, and I will not even try to "argue", promised.

Of course, belief and truth are not the same thing, but please forgive me if I remind you something you certainly know.

Quote:
You've repeatedly posted inaccurate claims the last 5 pages and in this instance from a disreputable source and I corrected you.


As in "3 to 5 million deaths" and "10% contagion rate", "this is a bioweapon", and so on? Please point out any bullshit from the links I posted, and why it is bullshit: for these you also need to back up your assertions with an ounce of actual evidence. If you do that, then I will not even remotely write a single word on the matter, once more.

But once more: the death rate for anyone younger than 80, in Italy, is currently 47.7%, with a 35.5% rate for people between 70 and 79, and so on from the previous posts. Death rates are lower if you lump groups in a different way. Technically we are both right. So?

EDIT: Simple point I wish to make (see the link below). The Virus seems deadly for older age segments, but it goes without saying that it is not an excuse to consider oneself impervious to it.

If anything, and I wrote this a few times already, precautions are fundamental as a form of respect towards others. I don't think I could state something more...banal, yes, but fake?

Quote:
The bewildering :D aspect of your blathering


This is all written text. Blathering? Whatever makes you happy, no worries for me.

Quote:
is with the number is doctors, virologists, and epidemiologists that are citing reputable figures on daily basis, it takes greater effort to find disinformation than accurate info.


Why are you not posting them, then? According to you, I am officially posting fake news, all the time. So, how about you post proper links to proper studies by accredited sources? I wonder who these reputable doctors, virologists and epidemiologists might be. Proof?

Quote:
(i.e. "Please note that Italian newspapers appear to nevertheless avoid mentioning that a 12% of deaths is below 70 years of age." <-- that's unequivocal bullshit)


Please feel free to post links disproving this. Sai l'italiano? Se no, perche' non lo impari? Di nuovo, se vuoi ti posto il link con l'articolo, cosi' lo leggi e magari mi dici cosa ne pensi (le credenze infondate altrui mi divertono molto). I link li puoi trovare sul sito del giornale "La Repubblica", e magari mi fai anche sapere come puoi dedurre che siano "fake news" con opportuna evidenza.

Quote:
Anyways, 40 year old guy in China :?


Would you like to me to prove this? I can, but transparency goes both ways. Who are you?

Quote:
I vehemently agree we should fuck right off and ignore each others posts.


Agreed, but please do not think that I bear any ill will towards you. Whether you give a shit about it or not.

Once more, even if you would like to strangle me or whatnot: if you spot any misinformation, by all means point it out (if you can, of course, and explain why). I am thanking you in advance. Then again, please note that I have also posted some links, here and there, and so on.

One example is this one: On social distancing.

Current contagion, death and recovery stats are easily found via say, bing.

Here is an interesting fact that I might prove, but it would take me some time (as in: take screenshots from my phone, upload them online, link them here).

The Chinese government has sent official updates stating that all contaged people have healed, so they report roughly 78k recovered. Bing reports 69k or so. I admit that I feel lazy to show the pics, but if someone is curious and gives me an image upload service that works in China, I could do that.

And just to justify Rapoon's claims, I was tempted to post and say "everything fine, here".

Anyway,
Some numbers on previous flu seasons in the US, which show that flu is not meant to be taken lightly. This is a brief discussion on death rates, focusing on Wuhan, and offering a glimmer of hope that may or may not be justified, and here is a piece on why Coronavirus is not an equal opportunities killer (also with a focus on Wuhan, and showing that for teens the fatality rate is non-existent).


Whether these numbers may directly inform us on how the epidemic may pan out in other countries is not a straightforward matter to assess, so I won't say a word on it.

Except: if this virus turns out to be weaker than previous flus, and the flu kills 80k people per year in the US, how do we get to 3 to 5 million deaths in the US alone?

The Italian situation is different, but the stats from IlSole24 are here (In Italian, and they cite their sources in the article). I cannot be bothered to look up stats on deaths by flu per year in Italy.

My bad if statnews.com is not a reliable source (I only bothered to look up here).

Last but not least: The doctors from WHO should have daily updates.

Don't worry, lads. We are all gonna die. Then again, is this something new?
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 3:17 pm 



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Posts: 3058
By the way, I posted a few pages ago that Angela Merkel made certain claims about contagion: lotsa Germans are gonna get the flu.

This is a piece discussing what she said (no, I cannot read it, but you should be able to do so). Another link is this one). I have no idea on what numbers, models and data she has based her claims.

In fact, this piece on Forbes dissects the claim and definitely suggests that the German chancellor "applied the worst case logic". Of course, the focus is on economic matters, but the reasons why the author is not so convinced about the numbers are relatively clear.

I am sorry but I fail to see, in Merkel's claim and other similar claims by other governments (e.g. the British one: see some previous post of mine for the links) that the worst case logic (people do absolutely nothing to protect themselves) is sound.

What I am seeing (in China, Italy, and a few other countries) is that a lot of people masking up and washing their hands way more often than before (well, people are claiming this), keeping distance, and so on.

It dawned on me I actually read about various people making similar predictions for the US and proposing similar numbers, but I decided not to link to any of these statements to avoid panicking you guys.

The article reports that "Marc Lipsitch, professor of epidemiology at Harvard, said earlier this month that he thinks about 40% to 70% of the world’s population could become infected with the virus, and of those, 1% will die."

This is fine, but I am still struggling to find discussions on the models that this professor (possibly the leader in his field, I know) is using to make these predictions. I am wondering if he discussed the time scale in some work, because such high percentages distributed over long periods (decades, I believe), are not uncommon, as far as I understand. A paper I am posting below discusses how the Black Death, in fact, recurred every 20 years or so (in Europe). Any links?

The paper is an old (double-blind, peer-reviewed) paper but it is free. It may present outdated information, because science seldom gives "once and for all" answer (speaking of banal statements...). Models are meant to be updated and may nevertheless run their course, as my Ph.D. supervisor used to say.

All in all, I cannot shake the feeling that all these models either revolve around extremely pessimistic and bizarre assumptions about human behaviour in these situations (everyone becomes braindead and devoid of fear), or (far) bigger scales than months (SARS should technically be still active).

If this is the case, then there is an aspect of communication emerging from most of these reports that qualifies as "fear mongering", and that has other goals (scaring people into action).

I will be convinced by epidemiologists' claims when I can read their explicit assumptions about behavioural patterns (because I have "professional biases", after all), and their explicit discussion of time frames. If I overlooked these claims, my fault.

Still, I studied the psychology of panic many moons ago, so I would need to find an handbook or something that discusses these matters, so I will be lazy and not back up at all these claims (but this paper is free, and touches on related topics including the Black Death claim above).

The worst case logic model that seems to be underpinning these claims strikes me as a model assuming that all of a sudden people give up on thinking, or even just reptile-like panicking. This is simply not what seems to be happening, before and after these claims were made. Soap is flying off the shelves anywhere, and this is not a particularly controversial statement, I believe.

Here is another point on which I really wished to be right, but it turns out I was talking bullshit, alas. The Virus can survive in air.

Such is the life of early, rushed-up posts. Keep distance, wear masks and gloves, and stop french kissing perfect strangers, lads.
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 Post subject: Re: COVID-19 virus
PostPosted: Tue Mar 17, 2020 4:40 pm 


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Joined: 19 Jun 2010
Posts: 1852
Location: Germany, Berlin
rapoon wrote:
Randorama wrote:

I am 40, in China (Guandong), and healthy.

Goodness: read that as you were '40, male, with a healthy 'Gua-Dong' thought I had accidentally used my ex-housemate's Grindr page again :lol:

I see from all your jibber-jabber that Cabin-Fever is not just affecting me - I'm going crazy in here - and they want the oldsters to spend at least 4 Months 'inside' - wow - we'll need pretty decent mind-altering practices to get us through it. It's getting weird here and I'm horny as hell!

A nice song to soothe the sense:

DOGMA:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGEQT48Ghzs
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