COVID-19 in your part of the world

[EmperorIng]

Hoping for a speedy recovery.

losing smell/taste,

Maybe a good time to go through xxx1993's film picks in the movie thread.

has he been carrying covid the last 6 years??

[Steamflogger Boss]

Movie COVID yes.

[Mischief Maker]

Once the both of us get our taste back, we're going out to a restaurant.

Maybe get takeout instead.

[CIT]

Two weeks ago my wife and I attended a family funeral and two days later her mom, aunts, uncles, and cousins all developed symptoms and tested positive. Our warning app signalled red, as we'd been in contact with them. To top it off one of her uncles wore a mask at the cemetery, but as soon as we're indoors he takes it off "because it's more comfortable." Thanks moron.

Anyway, we got tested and luckily came out negative. Still had to stay quarantined for ten days though, because the tests (even PCR) are not that accurate. My theory why we didn't get it is that we were the only ones at the event always wearing N95 masks.

I tested positive on the 2nd of this month

I hope you get well soon and don't have any complications! Two friends of mine had real covid horror stories that I'm not gonna share because I don't want spook you.

[Steamflogger Boss]

At this point 11 people that have had or currently have it and let me tell you it's pretty much random af. Thankfully no deaths so far among those...

[EmperorIng]

Thanks for the kind encouragement; it's appreciated.

God willing tomorrow is my last day of quarantine. Never had a fever this whole time, outside of one night I was 98.7. If I don't have a fever tomorrow I'm cleared by the doctors to go back out into the world starting Monday. I can go back to work before even my coworkers, who are still working from home till the 13/14th, which is just crazy to me since I haven't seen them since December.

I guess it's a positive development that I can taste sugar now, since early this week I don't think I could even do that much.

[system11]

I know of only a handful so far, and by proxy one other. One in hospital, two felt like they had normal flu, one was surprised to get positive back.

I'm a little concerned that my parents are going to a funeral next week, but at the same time they are VERY much against lockdowns because it's stealing their retirement from them. It's been horrible to watch the mental decline too, they were very community active, without all that contact, certain problems that were going to come eventually are here sooner. In a very real sense, lockdown has shortened their lives. I've spoken to several people my age and I'm not alone in this experience.

So the people the government is trying to "protect", who don't want to be locked down, are having their lives shortened or useful time taken away from them anyway. Great job.

Glad to hear you're feeling good EmperorIng.

[BulletMagnet]

What you speak of is both real and documented; apparently it's particularly bad for folks with Alzheimer's and the like. The frustrating thing is, even if certain people say "I'm willing to take the risk and suffer the consequences", said consequences don't begin and end with them, especially if their main motivation for not locking down is to interact with lots of other people.

As one doctor near the beginning of this whole mess said, if he could wave a magic wand and freeze everyone a few feet away from each other for a couple of weeks the virus would disappear; unless vaccine distribution manages to quickly kick it up several notches (here in the US the current federal government has punted to the states on that front and refuses to offer any aid), until most people start getting serious about minimizing unnecessary contact, especially with variants of the virus starting to pop up (including one in your neck of the woods, IIRC), this thing is just going to go on and on and on.

[vol.2]

Many people won't live long enough to have a retirement because of Covid. It's all really just a terrible mess.

[system11]

It will never end anyway, it will turn into an ongoing whack-a-mole as the virus continues to mutate which is what they always do. Eventually (or quickly) the vaccines will stop working and need adjustment. I still think the only real way out is that over time it becomes less dangerous and/or we come up with a drug cocktail that nukes the symptoms from orbit.

I'm firmly in the 'lockdown effects are worse than Covid deaths' camp now when everything is taken into consideration. Do you shorten and ruin the lives of millions to prevent the deaths of thousands? It's not the call I'd make.

[Mischief Maker]

If Boris and Donald showed up on my teevee today and announced all lockdowns are lifted, I still ain't going out. I love my parents! Nor do I really wanna roll the dice on whether I'll be a symptomless patient or a "but he was the image of perfect health" freak death.

The economy's not going back to normal until this virus is gone, regardless of government policy, dude.

[FinalBaton]

Didn't pandemics historically last 5 years or so? I'd expect this one to be the same.

Yes it's long but iT WILL end.

(of course our lifestyle creating more potential pandemics is a factor for future ills but that's a topic for another time)

[system11]

Wasn't even referring to specifically the economy, but it is true that poverty is one of the #1 factors affecting life expectancy, often along generational lines. Depression is another good one. Lockdowns are an excellent method to ensure more rapid recycling of the poor, like batteries. I salute your forward thinking.

[BulletMagnet]

It will never end anyway, it will turn into an ongoing whack-a-mole as the virus continues to mutate which is what they always do.

Keep in mind that they only get the opportunity to mutate if they're given the opportunity to proliferate.

I'm firmly in the 'lockdown effects are worse than Covid deaths' camp now when everything is taken into consideration.

As awful as the effects of the lockdowns and such are, I imagine that, to cite just one example off the top of my head, the medical staff who are already stretched to and/or beyond the breaking point in many places might offer a counterpoint to that assessment.

[FinalBaton]

the medical staff who are already stretched to and/or beyond the breaking point in many places might offer a counterpoint to that assessment.

yup, that's my thinking as well.

[TransatlanticFoe]

It will never end anyway, it will turn into an ongoing whack-a-mole as the virus continues to mutate which is what they always do. Eventually (or quickly) the vaccines will stop working and need adjustment. I still think the only real way out is that over time it becomes less dangerous and/or we come up with a drug cocktail that nukes the symptoms from orbit.

I'm firmly in the 'lockdown effects are worse than Covid deaths' camp now when everything is taken into consideration. Do you shorten and ruin the lives of millions to prevent the deaths of thousands? It's not the call I'd make.

I think it more appropriate to call it evolution rather than mutation. It's worth remembering that this virus has only recently crossed species and will evolve as it settles into its new host. Its likely evolutionary course is to become like the other human coronaviruses, simply because that is the path evolution has already taken.

The nature of coronaviruses mean the human immune response to one usually crosses over in some extent to others - the same is also true for the vaccine driven immune response. It may be necessary to tweak the vaccine to keep the effectiveness as high as possible (very easy for the mRNA vaccine and the Oxford/AstraZeneca one is specifically designed to be easily modified, starting its life as a generic tunable vaccine). If the virus changes so significantly that the current vaccines are essentially useless, the path of the illness will change too - this main result in it being milder, more easily treatable or more/less infectious. It's unlikely it'll evolve to be worse, you can't replicate very well if you quickly kill off your host.

The impact of the virus itself is twofold:

1. Being a new virus to humans, some aspects of it can cause severe erroneous responses by the immune system, driven by small variations in immune response that normally wouldn't matter
2. Those with a weaker or compromised immune system risk the virus overwhelming their natural defenses and winding up in hospital

Point 2. comes into play significantly when paired with Point 1, but Point 2 is also true for most viruses - but existing immunity in the population keeps incidence and transmission low. This is why the health system is under pressure in winter, viruses spread more readily and eventually hit those who are vulnerable. It's also why we have a flu vaccine - and despite this otherwise healthy people still die as a result of flu. Toss a new virus in there to which there is limited immunity and you're in trouble.

The endgame has two reasonable scenarios:

1. Flu-like vaccination schedules, adjusted for current variants and carried out annually/biannually (depending on how long the effect lasts) for those most at risk. Natural immunity and first round vaccinations for everyone provides the general population with the necessary immunity to keep transmission low (no reason to suggest otherwise, given the vaccines all show strong antibody and t-cell response). Some excess deaths will be tolerated, as is currently the case for a poorly effective flu vaccine. Chris Whitty has already hinted this is the expected UK approach after the vulnerable categories are vaccinated by the end of March
2. Virus adjusts fully to the human body and becomes effectively identical to existing human coronaviruses. No requirement for ongoing vaccinations. It's impossible to know how long this will take and it might not be too far off already, or it may take years

Lockdown is neither economically nor socially viable for much longer, which I suspect is why Chris Whitty covered it in the recent briefing - with the vulnerable having their first round vaccinations, by Easter that covid burden will be gone from the healthcare sector. You can then open up again, tolerating infection amongst the general population because a) the volume vaccinated will offer some level of herd immunity b) almost everyone outside of those vulnerable groups will be fine* when exposed to the virus. Vaccination is the sensible route out because, crushing though lockdowns are, you can't just leave the vulnerable groups to die in an overloaded hospital while your medical staff keel over from the strain on them - they make up a surprisingly large section of the population! You'd think the virus was literally everywhere - it's not, even our peak daily cases are about 80k out of a population of 65 million-ish. It just shows how easy it is to overload healthcare when a fraction of that 80k a day are espcially vulnerable, and how quickly a fraction of that can add up to tens of thousands of deaths.

* "Fine" meaning no worse than a severe form of any other viral infection. Had bronchitis? That's your lungs fucked for a month afterwards. Had pneumonia? Welcome to a good few months recovery. Ever had flu? Welcome to hell, it usually is most definitely not just a bad cold. Some reports of "long covid" are genuinely where an adverse immune response has occurred due to the nature of the virus, but a lot of it appears to be from people who don't realise how bad any viral infection that's not a boring old rhinovirus can be.

Edit: might not have been Chris Whitty but the dude who, at the first of our glorious new series of covid briefings, stood the other side of what passes for a Prime Minister these days.

[FinalBaton]

I think 60% population vaccinated is the threshold for contagion to plummet? We should get there in a few months, let's hang on

[ZacharyB]

I still can't get over how none of this would have happened if we had all just been diligently distant from each other for a single month. Back in January or February of 2020.

The pandemic has been an express ticket to 10 years of a bad marriage with millions of people, and I want a divorce.

[xxx1993]

Movie COVID yes.

I don't have COVID.

[GaijinPunch]

I'm firmly in the 'lockdown effects are worse than Covid deaths' camp now when everything is taken into consideration. Do you shorten and ruin the lives of millions to prevent the deaths of thousands? It's not the call I'd make.

There is some form of lock down in most places here in the US and we still have between and 2 and 4 thousand deaths a day. Those are high numbers. I can only imagine what type of multiplier would be applied if we followed advice of the "it's just a flu" crowd. 2? 5? 10? What about people that have other illnesses that get pushed aside b/c hospitals are packed? I'm not saying blanket lock downs are great, or even the answer, but seeing how so many people can't even wear a fucking mask correctly, I'm not sure what else there is.

I still can't get over how none of this would have happened if we had all just been diligently distant from each other for a single month. Back in January or February of 2020.

You mean listen to scientists who have dedicated their lives to studying this shit instead of some jack ass on Facebook? Why would anyone listen to the opinions of an epidemiologist.

[system11]

Had to make a trip today. Public transport during lockdown is definitely less unpleasant. Whole carriage to myself, very quiet, light suffocation from the mask made it easy to fall asleep. This happened in a data centre too before Christmas, guy I was working with only walked away for 10 minutes and found me passed out in the chair. It's the lower, warmer, damper air intake - fucking horrible. I could probably get an exemption the effects are so profound, but for the usual weekly 20 minutes shopping I try to just deal with it rather than deal with the witch burning crowd.

[EmperorIng]

I'm officially done with quarantine myself and am already back to my dayjob
I'm actually thinking of going back to public transportation (my new pad is right next to the subway, by design) - what have I got to lose?

My taste isn't really there but there are bits and pieces that seem to come through. Smell is still a total dead zone, which is a little disorienting.

[vol.2]

I'm officially done with quarantine myself and am already back to my dayjob

Congratulations!

There's at least some small rays of hope moving into the new year. Might as well be positive and hope things go well.

[GaijinPunch]

I'm officially done with quarantine myself and am already back to my dayjob
I'm actually thinking of going back to public transportation (my new pad is right next to the subway, by design) - what have I got to lose?

You work on the Blue Line still? Don't bother. Fucking hell... it was never Chicago's most pleasant line by a stretch but the pandemic has done a number on it. GF has to ride it twice a day and it's always a shit show. People not wearing masks... smoking cigarettes... begging for money going up and down only one fucking car... one lady even asks to buy cigarettes (regularly). I jog in a park full of homeless people. I don't mind being around pretty much anyone... except for shit like the above. The cigarettes thing fucking kills me.

[SuperDeadite]

According to the embassy newsletter, CDC has decided anyone entering USA must have proof of a negative covid test within 3 days of their flight, or they can't board the plane from Jan 21.

[GaijinPunch]

According to the embassy newsletter, CDC has decided anyone entering USA must have proof of a negative covid test within 3 days of their flight, or they can't board the plane from Jan 21.

Japan has been doing this for a while now... the notable thing is that Japan has a total number of cases that the US gets in a single day.

[vol.2]

According to the embassy newsletter, CDC has decided anyone entering USA must have proof of a negative covid test within 3 days of their flight, or they can't board the plane from Jan 21.

Japan has been doing this for a while now... the notable thing is that Japan has a total number of cases that the US gets in a single day.

I just heard from a friend over who claims that they are underreporting their numbers and not doing sufficient testing. It's obviously still lower than over here though, and that doesn't surprise me at all. People are a thousand times more hygienic, and it's normal to wear medical masks on public transportation when you are feeling sick. That's been the norm there for a long time as I'm sure you know.

[GaijinPunch]

I just heard from a friend over who claims that they are underreporting their numbers and not doing sufficient testing. It's obviously still lower than over here though, and that doesn't surprise me at all. People are a thousand times more hygienic, and it's normal to wear medical masks on public transportation when you are feeling sick. That's been the norm there for a long time as I'm sure you know.

There is no free testing and surely there are some people that are positive that are slipping through the cracks, but their excess mortality numbers show that it's just not as big of a deal there as it is here. I really thought they were gonna be fucked. Guess the jokes on me.

[vol.2]

Interesting article in the New York Times today, "Underselling the Vaccine," reports that medical officials are purposefully playing down the effectiveness of the vaccine in order to prevent a mad rush for it.

Apparently, in trials done so far, it's as close to 100% effective (both the Pfizer and the Moderna) as a vaccine can possibly get.

[KindGrind]

Thought I’d chime in. Quebec, Canada implemented a strict curfew for all non-essential workers 10 days ago. From 8 PM to 5 AM, everyone in. Hefty fines, cops take no BS. The cases have been trending down quite a bit these last few days. The health care system is “on its knees”, they tell us, but it’s mostly the employees who are missing in the hospitals that put immense pressure on the ones still there.

Walking out at night (I have a dog so I’m allowed out to walk it, a loophole of sorts) is eerie. It feels like I am Legend. There were reports yesterday in my area of people stealing dogs. What is wrong with the human race?