Prelude to the Apocalypse

A place where you can chat about anything that isn't to do with games!

Iran War. When.

2021
3
6%
2022-2025
15
28%
2026-2030
7
13%
2031-2040
3
6%
2041-2050
0
No votes
Never
25
47%
 
Total votes: 53

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Domino
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Domino »

BryanM wrote:It's been 18 years since Gore v Bush. Supposedly, demographic and cultural changes have favored the democrats during that period of time. A timespan of an entire generation. That they have not been able to improve beyond a dead tie would imply that their work over the last 18 years has actively decreased turnout there.
What the Dems had continue to done is to reduce elections to less than 1% victories. I'll be curious what point of a percent Trump is going to win in FL in 2020. Razor Margins are the new normal.

The demographics that favored Dems in FL has grow greatly over the last 5-10 years. The state has tons of young people and minorities who stereotypical vote for Dems. However, tons of old white elderly folks move to FL continually in high numbers every year. Besides no show, the tax environment is amazing for elderly retires: No tax on SS, 401k/pension, and no estate and inheritance tax. Also major homestead exceptions for property if you are elderly besides your major residence homestead exceptions (breaks if you are veteran and blind/death).

It's very common for elderly folks to sell their $400k+ home in NJ or New England, then use the funds on a home that's nicely built in FL for less than what the NJ home is worth, and have a tax savings of over $5k-$7k a year. A lot of them want to keep taxes low since they are on limited income (while yes I met some rich retirees over the years in FL, the majority of i met retirees aren't rich and have limited income). These are the guys if they had a chance they don't want their property taxes to pay for the local schools. It's true, a lot of elderly folks in FL don't want their monies to pay for schools. For these reasons, the majorly of elderly folks vote Republican. Anyone who is talking about raising taxes on anything (like Gillum on commercial taxes) will scare people away sadly.

And you wonder why FL doesn't have a good public school system? You are much better off moving to a liberal state where they pay teachers better. Also worth noted that these elderly voters vote almost at 90%, while young voters are closer to 30%. All about the turnout.

With their words. In the dark where no one can hear them.

But not with their money.

Which is similar to their position on wars of aggression.
Actually their foot soldiers who knocked door to door where telling people to vote for 4. I confirm it.
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GaijinPunch
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by GaijinPunch »

Domino wrote: And you wonder why FL doesn't have a good public school system? You are much better off moving to a liberal state where they pay teachers better.
I invite you to look at Chicago Public Schools. Then again, Illinois really is a red state with a really big blue city.
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Obscura
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Obscura »

Domino wrote:And you wonder why FL doesn't have a good public school system? You are much better off moving to a liberal state where they pay teachers better.
https://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2 ... TEgVzZ9Y0o

Break it down by demographics, and you find that teacher pay has very little to do with student success. Indeed, "backwards red states" where teachers aren't allowed to unionize actually do better.
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Domino
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Domino »

GaijinPunch wrote:
Domino wrote: And you wonder why FL doesn't have a good public school system? You are much better off moving to a liberal state where they pay teachers better.
I invite you to look at Chicago Public Schools. Then again, Illinois really is a red state with a really big blue city.
LOL, that's a school system that's a mess by itself.
Obscura wrote:
Domino wrote:And you wonder why FL doesn't have a good public school system? You are much better off moving to a liberal state where they pay teachers better.
https://iowahawk.typepad.com/iowahawk/2 ... TEgVzZ9Y0o

Break it down by demographics, and you find that teacher pay has very little to do with student success. Indeed, "backwards red states" where teachers aren't allowed to unionize actually do better.
Not always, look at the uber red states like LA, MS, and AL. MS is the worse where they cut funding down to the bone for schools that are mostly for minorities.

I personally have friends who teach in the public school system here in FL. The amount of work/stress/pay is not worth it. Two of them require multiple jobs to stay afloat of their rent/bills. One left teaching altogether for a job in a call center that offered better pay/benefits than the pubic school teacher in FL. It's worse for one of them since he lives in a Red county. He get parents telling him that they don't want to invest in the public school system since it's full of liberals and will home school their children in the ways of Christians. They told him that they don't believe he should be paid a living wage. Messed up actually.
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GaijinPunch
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by GaijinPunch »

Domino wrote: LOL, that's a school system that's a mess by itself.
It's only a mess in neighborhoods with no dough, and the places where it's shit is the fault of state's pension system. Basically the single biggest threat to the state right now, which nobody seems to have a way to fix. They decided to hire teachers based on a ridiculous retirement plan which they're now collecting.
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Ed Oscuro
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Ed Oscuro »

Hey the Trump man said a nice thing on Twisters. He sure is taking care of the country, and sure to please!

Here's my Cliff's Notes for the Illinois Pension Illness (this site appears to have a good, nonpartisan look at the issue[/url]):

The main issue with IL pensions is a fixed rate for cost-of-living increases. Instead of being flexible, most pensions are required to increase pension payments by 3% every year, regardless of economic conditions.

The IL State Constitution says this: "...membership in any pension or retirement system of the State, any unit of local government or school district, or any agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired." Dem. Governor Pat Quinn tried a fix to the pension system, but the state Supreme Court struck it down, arguing the rigid language of the Constitution requires amendment to change pension payments.

I don't know enough about IL state politics to gauge how much of a political football the issue is, but you can bet it is a big one. It is easy to whip up anger and resentment towards public employees as living off the fat of the land, but at the end of the day you do need their services. We hear so often from top private sector folks that you have to have outrageous salaries to attract top talent these days. On the other hand, you can't let pensions balloon in size unrestrained, or be overly fearful of the public employees that you end up sinking the state.

In general I don't think this situation tells us much about the viability / necessity of pensions or other public sector compensation schemes.
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quash
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by quash »

Sorry everyone, but once again, California has you beat on both fronts.

http://www.pensiontracker.org

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ec ... 079181001/

If only those gosh darned Republicans would get their nose out of our state politics and let the Democrats run unopposed, we wouldn't have these issues.
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Ed Oscuro
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Ed Oscuro »

Yes, everything would definitely be much better if we threw it all into stocks, and made sure that all public sector workers knew their pension could be eliminated in a fit of pique, you mean? (Despite the investment issues, apparently CalPERS' investments have made money recently. So the issue is likely - once again - overpromising and underfunding.) Your partisan reading doesn't make much sense to me; in Illinois, a popular "moderate" Republican kicked the pension plan debacle down the road, wasting valuable time; the Democrat Pat Quinn tried to take a harder stance but was stymied by the courts. In any case, pretty everybody knows that state budgets don't allow for printing money. Maybe it's time to rethink that.

I'm not sure exactly what the percentage of the CA budget goes to pensions. It apparently is high, perhaps over 30%, but I didn't find a simple apples-to-apples figure yet.

It should be remembered that in CalPERS, every employee getting that pension is paying - themselves - into their pension, and not getting Social Security. Should be similar in the Illinois system.

There is an interesting discussion here on some views about the housing supply and pensions. It's worth paying special attention to the remarks that an area with little movement in the housing supply can be brittle - which can bite many political viewpoints, but if you're a conservative you'd find out that an elastic housing supply indicates people will have to move from the area, while others move in. Again we see the specter of immigration lurking in the wings ;)
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quash
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by quash »

Ed Oscuro wrote:Yes, everything would definitely be much better if we threw it all into stocks, and made sure that all public sector workers knew their pension could be eliminated in a fit of pique, you mean?
Don't worry, everyone will be paying into their own retirement soon enough, be it in stocks, bonds, or IOUs. When the military realizes they can't sustain this any longer, it's only a matter of time before everyone else does as well.
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Ed Oscuro
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Ed Oscuro »

I'm not against forgoing pensions if it makes things transparent and avoids saddling the system with inflexible schemes - but to be clear, no investment-based scheme, be it a pension or personal savings plan, is going to be proof against market downturns. People deserve better than that. What's worse, there's a democratic deficit in suddenly declaring "freedom for everybody! Your retirement savings are now in stocks!" because such announcements are not, in fact, joyful expressions of the free market. They are dictates from on high.

Funny, also, that when it comes to individuals, we're told that thrift is a virtue, school teachers (and the police, firefighters and the military etc.) are living high off the hog and their plans should be dialed back. Yet when it comes to planning for the economy as a whole, (R) types keep saying that consumers need to spend, spend, spend! At the same time, real public support for the private sector is supposed to keep increasing. It's obviously a shell game.

We're avoiding talking about the obvious - Social Security still works, even after years of attempts to kill it off or defund it.
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GaijinPunch
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by GaijinPunch »

Ed Oscuro wrote: The IL State Constitution says this: "...membership in any pension or retirement system of the State, any unit of local government or school district, or any agency or instrumentality thereof, shall be an enforceable contractual relationship, the benefits of which shall not be diminished or impaired." Dem. Governor Pat Quinn tried a fix to the pension system, but the state Supreme Court struck it down, arguing the rigid language of the Constitution requires amendment to change pension payments.
Take this w/ a grain of salt, but I believe said workers contribute something akin to 2% of their gross income and get the same thing I would get after contributing 11% for 30 years. It was the ultimate game of kick the can and now here we are.
I don't know enough about IL state politics to gauge how much of a political football the issue is, but you can bet it is a big one.
It is about 80-90% of the state-wide political conversation here.
quash wrote:Sorry everyone, but once again, California has you beat on both fronts.
California actually has other things going for it... Illinois does not. Depopulation clashing w/ corruption... not pretty. Apparently we're the best! (at butt fucking ourselves).
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Ed Oscuro
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Ed Oscuro »

What I read suggests that CA workers contribute 8% of every paycheck towards their pension. Not an apples-to-apples comparison of course. Another question is what percentage of the pension is funded - I'm not sure what that's in reference to, but for CA I suppose it means that 50%+ of the pension is already funded by the pension's endowment / investments, without need for extra taxpayer contribution. But I don't know that for sure.

FWIW, paying a small portion of one's salary for a larger pension was probably meant to be the tradeoff for accepting lower public sector wages now. Of course, like you said, it's kicking the can down the road because these things always turn out based on rosy assumptions under the shining sun and with angels trumpeting the virtues of what is essentially a scheme to avoid paying a political cost now - actually figuring out how to fund the damn thing properly.
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quash
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by quash »

Ed Oscuro wrote:We're avoiding talking about the obvious - Social Security still works, even after years of attempts to kill it off or defund it.
Maybe if you were born between 1945 and 1965, in which case you will receive far more money than you put in. As for the rest of us, we needed to smell the coffee a long time ago.
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BryanM
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by BryanM »

Infuriating conversations I have with family members living on social security. They do not think of it as welfare. At all. They paid in a measly $40,000 or so, and have gotten way over $100,000 in support over the decades. I keep telling them the number they put in is less than what they've pulled out. Does not matter. "Ain't welfare - I paid into it!"

It's similarly easy to trigger people on job welfare - jobs that only exist because of the government, and otherwise would not.

Such deep brainwashing we have. They've so thoroughly demonized the word "welfare" as something shameful, as though existing is a privilege that has to be "earned", while the undeserving must be made to suffer.

Even so, SS has been perfectly stable for 4 generations, and even the upcoming "funding disaster" would require a measly ~14% cut in paid benefits in like 20 years or so from now. Everything is overblown on this subject, just so they can get their hands on this money and "privatize it". Not for the welfare of the many or those landlords and various corporations that have monopolized away our ability to fend for ourselves, but for the welfare of a couple billionaires.
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BulletMagnet
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by BulletMagnet »

quash wrote:As for the rest of us, we needed to smell the coffee a long time ago.
Or told Reagan and Greenspan to fuck off when they raided the trust fund to make their own billionaire blowjob look slightly less awful on paper (and still wound up skyrocketing the deficit even after being forced to suck less vigorously as time went on, when the "economic philosophy" they and their successors so tirelessly champion says they should have sucked even harder :lol:). Or raise the pitifully low cap on the SS tax so any money the top few percenters make annually over 130K or so isn't for some reason completely exempt from contributing (assuming it's not already being hidden away via a PO box in Ireland). But of course all trolls like you, Daddy included, ever see fit to demand are benefit cuts and raising the retirement age, populists that you are. Swallow deeper. :lol:
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quash
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by quash »

It's a shame you don't actually read anything I post, otherwise you'd know by now that Reagan is my least favorite president of the 20th century. That's not to speak of his atrocious tenure as governor of California, either.
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evil_ash_xero
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by evil_ash_xero »

I'm so apathetic when it comes to politics, right now. The Dems have gone full on identity politics and open borders.
And I've never liked the Republicans.

Trump at least doesn't let everyone in. But he cares nothing about the environment or wildlife.
At least we're not starting any new wars. I feared that Hilary would have went balls deep in Syria.

I hope somebody better shows up, but I'm not hopeful.

With the Dems getting people like Comrade Cortez, I'm just like "fuck". :(
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Ed Oscuro
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Ed Oscuro »

Well, it's NYC, whaddya want? There's a lot of awareness in the Dem party that they keep falling into Trump's race bait trap and Cortez is definitely at the edge of the party.

@ quash, maybe you should practice what you preach after the last few pages of non-sequiturs and brazen topic derails. How are your Iraqi dinars doing?
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Mischief Maker
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Mischief Maker »

evil_ash_xero wrote:The Dems have gone full on identity politics and open borders.
They have? Where are you getting your news from?

Nancy Pelosi's big issue is pay-go. Chuck Schmuer completely sold out dreamers last year and he's been fast-tracking hard-right ideologues into lifetime federal judiciary appointments at a record pace. The only job Democrats have for the next two years is obstruction, and the 3rd way dems might still fuck it up.

The only way I could see someone getting that impression is if you're just reading the Dems' reactions to Trump, who is ALL ABOUT identity politics and the border.
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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Obscura
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Obscura »

BulletMagnet wrote:
quash wrote:As for the rest of us, we needed to smell the coffee a long time ago.
Or told Reagan and Greenspan to fuck off when they raided the trust fund to make their own billionaire blowjob look slightly less awful on paper (and still wound up skyrocketing the deficit even after being forced to suck less vigorously as time went on, when the "economic philosophy" they and their successors so tirelessly champion says they should have sucked even harder :lol:). Or raise the pitifully low cap on the SS tax so any money the top few percenters make annually over 130K or so isn't for some reason completely exempt from contributing (assuming it's not already being hidden away via a PO box in Ireland). But of course all trolls like you, Daddy included, ever see fit to demand are benefit cuts and raising the retirement age, populists that you are. Swallow deeper. :lol:
People making over $130K are a tiny elite who have offshore bank accounts?!?! Are you really that out-of-touch?

I mean, I know leftists don't know what people make because they've never held a real job, but damn son.
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BryanM
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by BryanM »

Nancy Pelosi's big issue is pay-go.
Don't forget installing a rule requiring a super duper uper majority to raise taxes on billionaires.

And I just mentioned how the democrats would put increasingly tighter straight jackets on themselves to pretend they can't do anything, if they ever got any power. Remember? The rant about how the Senate requiring a super majority to pass anything was made up bullshit? That it's a simple majority, as per the constitution? 'member?

I 'member.
Obscura wrote:I mean, I know leftists don't know what people make because they've never held a real job, but damn son.
Oh, are we doing this now?

We're not doing this now. Free Republic, Bodybuilding Forums, Youtube, Infowars, Daily Mail and so on are that way dear sir --->

You'll have more fun there than here.
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GaijinPunch
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by GaijinPunch »

Obscura wrote: People making over $130K are a tiny elite who have offshore bank accounts?!?! Are you really that out-of-touch?
An upper class household has an income north of $130k.
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Rob
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Rob »

Mischief Maker wrote:
evil_ash_xero wrote:The Dems have gone full on identity politics and open borders.
They have? Where are you getting your news from?
Image

"I don't believe in borders"

Monthly Harvard-Harris Poll: June 2018. Page 76.
Question: Do you think that people who make it across our border illegally should be allowed to stay in the country or sent home?
Answer: Stay in the country, Democratic: 53%.

Anti-ICE protest held in D.C.: 'No ban, no wall, sanctuary for all’

See. No one wants open borders - we just have 20+ million illegal aliens here, and doing anything about that is vile and evil (Kamala Harris will tell you that ICE is like the KKK - or, slightly more carefully worded, that there's that perception out there). So it's a complete mischaracterization and smear that Democrats want open borders. Just can't build a border wall, can't detain anyone or send anyone back (our cities should be "sanctuaries for all") and, quite frankly, even thinking about any of those things is racist. Seriously, the game Democrats have is opposing anything that would make the borders not wide open, or wear it loud and proud like Keith Ellison, and then pretend that they aren't open borders advocates, since they know that that is not a popular position for many millions who aren't batshit crazy.
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Mischief Maker
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Mischief Maker »

Hey Rob... guess what? Those troops that were sent to the border to protect us from the Honduran caravan-pocalypse... can you guess what's happening now that the midterms are over?

Ding-a-ling-a-ling-a-ling!

*DROOL*
Two working class dudes, one black one white, just baked a tray of ten cookies together.

An oligarch walks in and grabs nine cookies for himself.

Then he says to the white dude "Watch out for that black dude, he wants a piece of your cookie!"
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Specineff
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Specineff »

Too bad... a federal judge just barred the administration from denying asylum to people in the caravan even if they jump the fence:

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/20 ... -means-ca/

Obama apointee, the brown man cometh, deep state, b-b-b-b-but Hillary, conspiracy, blah blah blah...
Don't hold grudges. GET EVEN.
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Ed Oscuro
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Ed Oscuro »

Trump's attention (aside from ignoring Ivanka doing exactly the same thing Hilary Clinton supposedly needs to be locked up for, and railing against Mueller) seems to have shifted over to attacking the retired leader of the bin Laden raid, and reminding everybody that he has never had any critical role in bringing terrorists to justice, but a lot of contempt for people who have. Oh, and also publicly pooh-poohing the obvious conclusion of his own national intelligence, and also suggesting that we really just need a Russian head for Interpol.

Also he has sage advice for Californians: Rake your lawns, that'll stop those fires. :|
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Zen
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Zen »

The TDS is strong, in this thread!

Image

Good. GOOD!
Image
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quash
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by quash »

GaijinPunch wrote:An upper class household has an income north of $130k.
Coming soon to a state near you.
Ed Oscuro wrote:How are your Iraqi dinars doing?
For all of the trouble they've caused us, I'm sure going to miss the boomers when they're gone. You can't make this shit up.
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GaijinPunch
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by GaijinPunch »

quash wrote:
GaijinPunch wrote:An upper class household has an income north of $130k.
Coming soon to a state near you.
Meanwhile, in reality, we'll all still be talking about nationwide averages, as one would when talking about federal taxation.
Zen wrote: Image

Good. GOOD!
Prequel meme? Fail.
RegalSin wrote:New PowerPuff Girls. They all have evil pornstart eyelashes.
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Obscura
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Re: 2020 Democratic Presidential Primary

Post by Obscura »

$130k "household" income = $65k for one individual. If you're not making that within a few years of graduating from college in an area with a low cost of living, you're a failure. You can literally make more than that by being the general manager at a fast food restaurant.

$130k for one individual that's well into their career is good, but hardly puts you in the mythical "can buy a congressman and stores all of their wealth offshore" class. It puts you in with the reasonably successful doctors, engineers, or lawyers. You know, people who actually have their shit together and can accomplish something. This bitterness towards them displays what everyone sane has always known about the left -- they've failed, and so they want to tear down everyone that hasn't out of jealousy.
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