Prelude to the Apocalypse

[P_HAT]

Oh, god, orange man is a gift that keep on giving

[Sengoku Strider]

My relatives are under bombs, but people at my work support this war.

...from what you've experienced, do you think they believe (or say they believe) Putin's story for why he invaded (Russian-speaking people being killed, Nazis in charge), or do they buy into the "it's rightfully Russian territory" or "we need to strike back at the West's incursion" narratives, or are they just afraid that they will suffer retaliation if they don't support the war, or something else? I can't help but wonder what the main motivator is for those in the Putin camp, at least from what you've seen.

Well, it depends on people. There is older folks, who ONLY consume state media, since USSR. So they simply believe in all the bullshit, because they were told to do it [believe the state] since the childhood and lack any critical thinking or understanding of the world outside their bobble. The simply never questioned anything, in their life, and they go by this way.

I'm not sure there is alot of people who think "it's rightfully Russian territory". It is mostly side-addon to other ideas.

"we need to strike back at the West's incursion" is one of big ideas, yes. Mostly it is liked by people who never was in any western country, nor they speak any other language. They ofc racist, everything-phobic and only consume state media.

There is people who are afraid, but people who just too afraid (imagine you have little kid, and if you protest you for sure can be fired, fined, put in jail) and have rights so. But there is peope who afraid and keep it silent or dislike it. And people who afraid but decided to support it, like hyenas.

There is alot of other... reasons, i guess. Many people just lost their humanity. They live in really odd mentality i can't even describe it.

A Russian friend of mine linked this article yesterday, translated from a Russian writer. I thought it explained a lot. I mentioned above that I always saw educated Russian people as pretty aware of the general state of government corruption and dishonesty. But this article seems to do a good job of explaining why people go along with things anyway:

Russia on the Verge of a Nervous Breakdown - Liza Alexandrova-Zorina

Like I also mentioned above - I see a ton of similarity in Russian nationalism and American MAGA. That article spells a lot of it out.

And while it was a different brand of right wing nationalism, anyone in the West who lived through 9/11, the Iraq War and the passing of the Patriot Act should be able to understand how ordinary people can be whipped up by mass media into a fiercely pro-state, pro-military stance in which they're willing to support a lying, intrusive government dishonestly hiding imperialist ambitions. The tribal "circle the wagons" instinct is a strong one.

[Ed Oscuro]

Interestingly, a few days ago there was an interesting event on Russian state TV when a couple very well-connected pundits actually called for an end to the operations in Ukraine. Last I checked they haven't been invited back on TV yet so maybe they didn't get Putin's blessing to say this, but it's an interesting development.

I haven't heard about it. But some of oligarchs were actually vocal of stopping it. And possible the biggest tv host in Russia atm Ivan Urgant seems to have moved to Israel. He was very vocal aganist any war, for a long time. And his show is also put on hold. There is also other big media names, many of them fled the country.

Yes, it seems that my hope was misplaced. Media crackdown continues and Putin seems no closer to realizing he's lost his war aims.

Fascinating article @ Sengoku Strider.

[Sengoku Strider]

Putin seems no closer to realizing he's lost his war aims.

They've exceeded their timeline and his economy is in shambles, so I think he realizes. But he has to come out of this with some kind of face-saving move. Doing all this and then backing off and coming away with nothing will make him appear weak - because it will indicate that to a significant degree he actually is - and threaten his position. He's still theoretically the president of a democracy, the mechanisms for him to be overthrown without bloodshed are there if he loses the loyalty of military leadership.

I've seen headlines to the effect that Russian negotiators are backing off on some demands, so that may be an indicator of an ending being in sight. But Putin may also feel that he can't walk away from this war because it will effectively end any expansionist ambitions he had. He can't even really go after the former Soviet republics in Central Asia, because that would be fucking with China's Belt & Road initiative:



China gets a significant amount of oil from Tajikstan and has invested mountains of money and diplomatic capital in this project, so aside from maybe annexing part of Kazakhstan that whole direction is likely off limits.

[BryanM]

Just saw the hierarchy umbrella for the first time today.



There are people who've grown up seeing this or a variant every day of their lives.

"Yeah uh huh there's an invisible wizard who says you have to be my slave. Yep yep. It's not because I can beat the shit out of you with my fists."

humans.... Just imagine how different we'd be if we had evolved from squirrels instead.

[Sengoku Strider]

Fresh off a congressional vote removing her from all committee assignments last night, Marge is still coming in hot with the spicy takes. Part of me wants to think this is a PR scam to get first in line when the oligarch money starts flowing again. But everything I've ever heard from this woman tells me no, she read this in a Facebook meme and ran with it because she really is this dumb:

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-GA) on Wednesday slammed President Joe Biden for sending more military aid to Ukraine, and said that things would be better off if Ukrainians just gave up their efforts to resist the Russian invasion.

In a Facebook address to her supporters, Greene laid out the case against helping the Ukrainians with more weapons.

"If we truly care about suffering and death on our television screens, we cannot fund more of it by sending money and weaponry to fight a war they cannot possibly win!" she said. "The only effect of more arms and more money from America will be to prolong the war!"

Incidentally for Marge, current reporting is that Russian military objectives have stalled on all fronts, while Putin just replaced 1000 members of his personal staff because he's paranoid about being poisoned.

But much more importantly, I'd just like to bring up again the fact that this woman cheated on her husband by joining a Zangief cosplayer's sex cult, because I really enjoy that fact.

[Ed Oscuro]

Putin seems no closer to realizing he's lost his war aims.

They've exceeded their timeline and his economy is in shambles, so I think he realizes.

I should correct myself and say it's an open question as to whether he will be able to achieve some of his war aims or not. It's very likely that he wouldn't have gone ahead with this invasion if he could have seen how high the cost would be, but his forces have transitioned quickly enough to the Plan B of ethnic cleansing by artillery as in Grozny and Aleppo. Sunk costs fallacy probably leaves him more desperate to hold up something as a reason for declaring victory, but let's not forget the multiple possible war aims: Building a land bridge to the Crimea through Mariupol, pushing back the borders from the Donetsk and Donbass regions, and getting Ukraine to announce a policy of neutrality and not seek to join NATO. It seems plausible that Ukraine may decide enough is enough and accept at least some of these conditions in fact just to end the war.

So in other words, maybe Putin hasn't lost his war aims yet. Or maybe he can't achieve them but he doesn't realize this. It depends on the details.

Part of me wants to think this is a PR scam to get first in line when the oligarch money starts flowing again. But everything I've ever heard from this woman tells me no, she read this in a Facebook meme and ran with it because she really is this dumb:

Definitely not absurd to question her motives, but this may be genuine ideology. A lot of folks on the far left and Q-Anon/MAGA share the antiwar theory about the conflict that the US and NATO bungled their way into the war. This is roughly the theory espoused by some foreign relations experts like Professor John Mearsheimer. The most uncomfortable detail here, of course, is that her prescription comes during a war with the idea of placating an enemy that appears not to be interested in diplomacy. No awards for insight here.

[BryanM]

I was astonished to hear about them handing coordinates to pilots on a sheet of paper right before they take off. Like it's still the 1940's or something - that's something a modern first world military would do??

Marjorie Taylor Greene

Seems like an absolute lunatic in the abstract sense, but the more time goes on the more I think she sounds presidential. All it takes is being able to occupy tv's and people's minds. Guess who gets all the airtime.

Astonishingly horrible possible futures we have here, each worse than the last.

[Sengoku Strider]

Definitely not absurd to question her motives, but this may be genuine ideology. A lot of folks on the far left and Q-Anon/MAGA share the antiwar theory about the conflict that the US and NATO bungled their way into the war. This is roughly the theory espoused by some foreign relations experts like Professor John Mearsheimer. The most uncomfortable detail here, of course, is that her prescription comes during a war with the idea of placating an enemy that appears not to be interested in diplomacy. No awards for insight here.

That sounds way too coherent for QAnon. More like Tucker Carlson-sphere "Oh yeah well if China occupied Mexico we'd feel the same way" pretend-news logic pretzels. Putin's been a hero to a lot on the US right for a while because of his anti-LGBT hardline, and general pro-church, pro-white, pro-authoritarian stances. Also, Russian troll farms are behind like half the conservative disinfo on the internet. So there are plenty willing to cape for him even still.

QAnon similarly believes Putin is a secret hero, but working with Trump and trusty sidekick JFK jr. behind the scenes. He's invading the Ukraine to take out Hillary Clinton & Dr. Fauci's viral warfare biolabs, as well as The Cabal's child trafficking centres there. It all ties back to Hunter Biden, naturally.

As you can see, their intel is impeccable:



Word about Vladimir Poutine and his spiritual battle to prevent World War One Hundred and Eleven is spreading through trusted journalistic outlets:



You all do your due diligence, don't you? You're not a problem like Dave, cheering on a Nazi like Barack Obama, are you? Don't make this guy come over, drink your beer and compare sources:



Mic drop.

[Ed Oscuro]

All I mean is there's quite a few places she could have gotten an idea like that. QAnon LITE to be sure, but possibly MAGA-adjacent still. Having seen more than my fair share of her "workout" videos (not a very smart lady) I am still doubtful that she's the brains behind any operation (besides maybe a future joint replacement). But who knows - there's still plenty of pro-Putin money out there and it's dark days for them. Maybe someday we will pick up on what prompted her to say this. I am pretty confident she's no Tucker, though. And besides - the idea that we should stop arming Ukraine because it may make the war worse is certainly wrong, but it might not have any ill intent. It's a good thing she's not driving policy.

Speaking of which, diplomacy is still important:
https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fint ... -1.4826561

@ BryanM: Yes, and in early days many drivers had printed maps. There's also some video about of a crashed chopper with the Cyrllic letters VVS on it, which apparently hasn't been the norm since 2014. They ran out of "precision" munitions fairly quickly (still killed that teen girl on her bike in the first day with a stray rocket from an MLRS though). Fighters are carrying random assemblages of commercial radios - looks like Russia's network hacking proficiency was good enough to target individual cell phones of soldiers at the front, but not good enough to provide secure comms to intelligence operatives in Ukraine reporting on a General's death. No defense in depth at all; apparently it's hard to buy enough toys to outfit the armed forces when most of the money is going to yachts.

[Mischief Maker]

Yeesh...

The [Russian] troops, who dug trenches in a contaminated Red Forest near the site of the worst nuclear disaster in history, are now reportedly being treated in a special medical facility in Gomel, Belarus. The forest is so named because thousands of pine trees turned red during the 1986 nuclear disaster. The area is considered so highly toxic that not even highly specialized Chernobyl workers are allowed to enter the zone.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

What an awful way to go, if they've suffered a lethal dose. The Russian army sounds like they rounded up a bunch of naive kids and sent them to die for Putin. Truly an awful war.

If there's a silver lining it's that the once-feared Russian military has been shown to be fundamentally incompetent. It seems now that as a global power, it's really only their nukes that give them any claim to power.

[BryanM]

The "Idiocracy Is Not A Documentary" people always come at it from the wrong angle. It's not a documentary because Kamacho is a good leader who cares about people; someone like him would never be allowed to have any power.

Sending kids to die for the benefit of rich old guys is pretty much a universally true cliche about war. I remember back in high school visiting this motion simulator some Navy recruiters set up in the Wal-Mart parking lot. A couple of middle-aged women were talking to the kids, saying basically "don't let them fool you; it'd be best if you don't sign up but if you do be careful about the terms you agree to", stuff around those lines. I understand now why they were so emotionally invested in it: they certainly lost shitloads of friends in the senseless meatgrinder that was Vietnam.

Army infantryman is possibly the shittiest job I can imagine. After years with no stable private living space, mind-reaving boredom occasionally punctuated by probable bouts of unpleasantness, your reward is a resume that doesn't help you qualify for any domestic job.

And the women were completely right about them fucking people. You might very vaguely recall my story of the GI Bill benefits. They took $1,200 out of people's paychecks for college benefits. The scam being most won't use it. I was among the ~3% that opted out. Months later, they ended the $1,200 fee and just gave it to everyone serving after a certain date. No refunds. Most according to keikaku moment of my life, maybe.

They also, really, really liked to max out people's death insurance without their consent. Every time they raised the cap, EVERYONE was set to the max. Me, I had the minimum to put me in the ground in a pine box with no frills. You would think in a sane, properly functioning world that they could infer my intent to not have maximum insurance by me not selecting the maximum insurance, but we live in a world ruled by fuckers.

[emphatic]

Yeesh...

The [Russian] troops, who dug trenches in a contaminated Red Forest near the site of the worst nuclear disaster in history, are now reportedly being treated in a special medical facility in Gomel, Belarus. The forest is so named because thousands of pine trees turned red during the 1986 nuclear disaster. The area is considered so highly toxic that not even highly specialized Chernobyl workers are allowed to enter the zone.

Didn't this turn out to be a hoax? Russian soldiers getting poisoned, I mean, not the Chernobyl disaster.

[Ed Oscuro]

CBS mentioned it last night in a report. The Ukrainians say it happened - and maybe it did or did not. All of the story makes sense to me except for the idea that digging trenches would stir up enough radiation to cause acute radiation poisoning. That would take a lot of radiation. Still, it's possible the Russians got into something nasty. Silly guys...the first thing they tell you about life in the Zone is to never touch glowy orbs or vortices!

[BryanM]

The wikipedia paragraph on current goings-on in the area is some galaxy-brain shit. Allegedly current chain of events is something like this:

Russian forces seized the power plant. Which has zero strategic or practical value. Some very nice deer I suppose you could eat, I assume. They loot and wreck the place for what meager scraps there are to be had. Then most of them leave, speculation online is due to them getting sick.

This would be another big notch in our post-parody reality if true. The walls of reality are melting around us, and the monster that's trying to get through is gonna melt our brains, believe me.

[orange808]

More shootings? Uh oh! We need more fake sympathy and fake concern! Here come the thoughts and prayers. Fuck. Fuck. Fuck. ....

(If we cared, we'd do something.)

[Blinge]

Pretty much sacrificed Ukraine huh.

The Russian army sounds like they rounded up a bunch of naive kids and sent them to die for Putin. Truly an awful war.

Hard to feel sympathy for those 'kids' now we know they're gang raping women and children

inb4 some wise old genius in the thread says "that's just what happens in war."
Yes, I know.

[orange808]

Pretty much sacrificed Ukraine huh.

The Russian army sounds like they rounded up a bunch of naive kids and sent them to die for Putin. Truly an awful war.

Hard to feel sympathy for those 'kids' now we know they're gang raping women and children

inb4 some wise old genius in the thread says "that's just what happens in war."
Yes, I know.

People behaving like people. Congratulations. You discovered what human beings are.

[Mischief Maker]

People behaving like people. Congratulations. You discovered what human beings are.

My dog is a natural hunter of rabbits. He will hunt rabbits even with a full stomach. The times he catches one, he doesn't slowly back away in horror from the result of his actions.

If humans are natural murder machines, why does war always require intense propaganda? Why is basic training focused so much on overcoming the resistance to kill? Why do we even have the reaction of horror and revulsion at the destruction war leaves in its wake?

[BryanM]

Pretty much sacrificed Ukraine huh.

Yeah... no one was going to kick off MAD when it's someone else's neck on the chopping block. These defense pacts are kind of a farce when you scratch their surface. If they were invading France, France would have to launch their own nukes.

If humans are natural murder machines, why does war always require intense propaganda? Why is basic training focused so much on overcoming the resistance to kill? Why do we even have the reaction of horror and revulsion at the destruction war leaves in its wake?

Though it's not needed, as the core debate here is largely philosophical, I'll do a line by line reply. As is my job as an annoying internet nerd.

> If humans are natural murder machines, why does war always require intense propaganda?

It really, really doesn't. You tell your generals what to do, they deliver orders, and the men do their jobs. They need to get paid, after all.

The pro-war propaganda is merely another tool to throw everything you've got into a conflict. You've already got this massive propaganda machine grooming people to serve from birth, why wouldn't you use it to keep as many legs on the caterpillar moving in the direction you want as possible? You're paying for it either way, why wouldn't you use it for its purpose?

> Why is basic training focused so much on overcoming the resistance to kill?

Because we're from soft societies by and large completely isolated from violence, outside of our fantasies. Moral qualms of "I'd never do that" extend to more than just this.

The fallout of what WWII did to European fantasy worlds has always been pretty interesting, as an Ameritrash guy.

> Why do we even have the reaction of horror and revulsion at the destruction war leaves in its wake?

Because some of us have empathy.

The human animal has extreme amounts of empathy for those that are in their tribe, "their people". And zero for those outside of it. That's the core difference between the leftist and rightist: the scope of who they view as "in their tribe". The leftist views themselves as part of a broad tribe, the rightist an extremely narrow one. Thus how we view extreme hierarchies as an abomination, and they can view it as perfectly fine. "Capitalism is great, just as long as it's us doing the fucking" the fash will imply, with their made-up snarl word "globalist".

Eric Trump puts it into words best, "they aren't even people to me."

There are tons of people who are happy to grin at all the murder and rape and say "those bastards deserved it!" You can't project your own feelings onto other people as a blanket statement: I think it's really fucking clear terminal values can differ greatly.

Some people care. Some people are monsters. Most don't really give a shit, at least not enough to risk a cost to themselves. Everything's akin to gangsters running a protection racket.

One of the things I've been mulling over since the invasion started, is that maybe true peace would only be possible in a one empire world. We're the closest to that in all of history; with the rot evident in Russia it looks like it's down to us and China. It's kind of scary, empires are either growing or they're shrinking and the latest years here in the west have felt like they've increasingly resorted to cannibalizing our own citizens to keep the game going. A little from Huxley A, a little from Orwell B...

in-tribe empathy

Note this is pretty universal in animals. Domesticated animals see us as part of their tribe: "we're head chicken" and all that. Dogs have incredible camaraderie with their tribe mates. But they have to be raised together as a young puppy if you want them to bond with prey animals like rabbits and cats.

Note that dogs will often kick the asses of other dogs that are in their out-group. It's tribalism all the way down.

[orange808]

People behaving like people. Congratulations. You discovered what human beings are.

My dog is a natural hunter of rabbits. He will hunt rabbits even with a full stomach. The times he catches one, he doesn't slowly back away in horror from the result of his actions.

If humans are natural murder machines, why does war always require intense propaganda? Why is basic training focused so much on overcoming the resistance to kill? Why do we even have the reaction of horror and revulsion at the destruction war leaves in its wake?

LMAO. Name one place on earth that isn't a complete shithole of murder and rape without a strong police force and social order. Corruption related to government is always a problem, but the safest places have comparatively low corruption overall. The constant corruption only proves my point, anyway. Independent of a justice system and transparency, we know what people do. The evidence is crushing and overwhelming. We both know what human beings are. Having to sell the news to a few people doesn't change the evidence, reality, or history of the human race. And, you're essentially identical to your ancestors genetically. You aren't evolved. So, yes, human beings are atrocity machines.

Bryan nailed it with tribalism. Although, I would argue that the tribe doesn't stay anybody's hand. It just makes them more sneaky about their atrocities.

[orange808]

Oh, god, orange man is a gift that keep on giving

Am I now?

Still want to half-ass those sanctions?

We are tracking war crimes with satellite images of bodies and a small trench, but we can't/won't track tankers and cargo freighters? lmao Okay.

Smell something? That's because your head is up your arse.

[Mortificator]

P_HAT was talking about... you know, never mind

Name one place on earth that isn't a complete shithole of murder and rape without a strong police force and social order.

The US, for starters. Its popo gang is not remotely, not in the slightest, not even a little bit there to protect people from victimization. It was created & financed to guard oligarch's capital and keep the rest of the populace grinding away for their gain. The dumb line that everyone will turn into a rape machine without strong moral Daddy in control is partially propaganda, partially a reflection of what a group that selects for and nurtures the most sociopathic knows THEY do after they're insulated from consequences.

[orange808]

P_HAT was talking about... you know, never mind

Name one place on earth that isn't a complete shithole of murder and rape without a strong police force and social order.

The US, for starters. Its popo gang is not remotely, not in the slightest, not even a little bit there to protect people from victimization. It was created & financed to guard oligarch's capital and keep the rest of the populace grinding away for their gain. The dumb line that everyone will turn into a rape machine without strong moral Daddy in control is partially propaganda, partially a reflection of what a group that selects for and nurtures the most sociopathic knows THEY do after they're insulated from consequences.

Go to Mexico. Don't want to, do ya? Don't want to say why, either, do ya? (Because, it fucks your entire argument.) Don't have to stop going south there, either. Move even further south. I dare you.

Protecting property rights makes the economy work, by the way. There's all kinds of things that are inconvenient, but still necessary. The world is a complicated place. But, you're naive or stupid if you think the United States is filled with "different" or "evolved" people that won't behave like people do in nations with a less established rule of law. That's ridiculous.

As for your mention of corruption, that's everywhere and it only gets worse. I'm not saying it's okay, but I'm not naive. I can acknowledge reality.

[BryanM]

To step a bit into Strider's domain, a good historical example of how deep defense pacts run when put against one's own, is that time Churchill attacked their French allies. If there was even a 0.5% chance the Nazis could get those boats, that was far too high a risk to take.

The opinion of one of the French seamen always stuck with me: "the people at the top make the decisions, and it's the people below who always have to pay the price."

Although, I would argue that the tribe doesn't stay anybody's hand. It just makes them more sneaky about their atrocities.

I disagree, there's real, sincere affection for the in-group on the whole.

Yes, impulses toward sex and violence are very often intrinsic to at least the male brain. (I can't say how the female brain works, but I can say they don't seem to like DOOM or Diablo as much as we do..) That's evolution at play: Those who don't fuck don't reproduce. Those who won't eat the cute little bunnies will starve to death or get eaten by the elephants in turn.

These impulses are self destructive when you need a functioning group to protect you when you sleep, a functioning group that won't abuse your children as you won't abuse the children of others, a functioning group that can form a raid party to eat those elephant bastards hogging up the water hole. The brain does this through a reinforcing mechanism, an emotion we call "love" or whatever. It is real.

Decency is possible when one is safe and comfortable. "Why are you so mad? We're rich!" etc.

Atrocities during war are so much easier against someone you don't see as a person: it's not just the ease of avoiding consequence. The tribe actively approving of these actions will of course maximize them.

_____


Re: electoral politics, sometimes I don't think we talk about tribalism enough, since it's basically the only thing that matters. (Demo'd by my leniency on not cancelling/unhumaning even mildly leftish figures, since at least some of the fash will listen to them, and maybe change their minds on some things over time.) But considering better people than me have understood things more deeply, it's pretty clear understanding is completely useless versus just having actual power. You can't talk to someone as much as their TV does, nothing you do will imprint as deeply as their environmental experiences during childhood...

[orange808]

Hard to say. Seems to me that civil wars are often the most brutal. People living so close together, yet so prepared to destroy and exploit one another.

I'm sorry. I just can't look over history and say many good things about human beings in general. We are deeply flawed.

Also, fuck Roger Waters. Apparently, brains really do shrink when we get old. At least Mick Jones is still the same person. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvphB3M0F1Q

[BryanM]

First round of the French election starts in a few hours. News stories pinned to the top of the Google results have no mention of Mélenchon, he is an unperson. Lots of pumping up Pen's name recognition. Typical of the machine to give people the choice between death, and death alongside fascism.

Leftist rags like to mention Mélenchon is only a few points behind in polling and could be a real contender. I like to stay in my "nothing good can happen" bubble to avoid disappointment.
_____

The "Bush is a war criminal" moment during the supreme court confirmation hearings was a brief speck of sunshine these last couple years. It's the only time I felt a little of that GOP Fantasy Biden energy:

I had the GOP spam call yesterday asking for $75. The person was going on about saving America from Bidens Radical Socialist Agenda.

I couldn't hold it in... I just started bursting out in laughter..

I asked the guy what socialist policies Biden is pushing. His response?

“hold on. I'm new here. Let me look it up"

(20 seconds later)

Me: Have you found anything?

Him: No I couldn't find anything.

Me: Okay. Thanks. Bye.

[Blinge]

inb4 some wise old genius in the thread says "that's just what happens in war."
Yes, I know.

People behaving like people. Congratulations. You discovered what human beings are.[/quote]

Apparently ' inb4 ' has no power here.

[BareKnuckleRoo]

Hard to feel sympathy for those 'kids' now we know they're gang raping women and children

Military discipline and recruiting standards don't appear to be a thing for Russian infantry. It's been a big eye opener for the world to see their much touted military strength is largely a bluff, aside from the nukes (which may or may not be in an operable state given the rampant corruption there).

It's really giving the impression more and more that it's a disorganized barbarian horde with tanks rather than an actual army.