shmups.system11.org

I am wondering how others feel things will be say 3-4 years from now. Please weigh in.

USA (if you live somewhere else, what will it be like where you live?)
360 - such a huge headstart, it will take years for anyone to catch up
PS3 - not having enough units will hurt initially but as we get closer to launch the hype feels like tsunami
Wii - could be huge or just a spectator on the sidelines

Prediction:

360 33%
PS3 40%
Wii 27%

here it is for me:

ps3: 0% warhawk only thing half-worth getting, and you're going to fight ON FOOT with mediocre third person action game play in between every air mission? lol
wii: 0% to 25% depends on how fast the region lock gets bypassed, or if it ever does
360: 75-100% dead rising, sotn xbla, lost planet

Lots of boring with a side of cloudy.
Decided about a year and a half ago I wasn't going next-gen.

I think the 360 is going to come out on top in the US and in Europe. And given how Blue Dragon suddenly made 100,000 of 'em fly off of shelves in Japan, it might do respectable in Japan yet.

The PS3 will crash and burn until the price becomes reasonable. And by then most people won't care about it anyways.

The Wii could go either way. Nintendo could do something VERY good with it and make it a run away hit like the DS or they could make it the Gamecube pt. 2. I'm really not sure at this point.


So far, it seems to me like MS is going to come out on top.

Hard to say. I'm not interested in any of the new systems. I might think about it after any one of them has a respectable number of shmups, platformers, hack and slash, and fighters. There's still more than half a dozen games I want to get for the PS2, yet none for the next gen systems.

I think it's too soon to really tell which way things are going to go, but here are a few thoughts based on my observations so far (this is going to end up being long...)

Xbox 360 (standard disclaimer: In spite of my current employment at MS, I have no inside knowledge of anything pertaining to the Xbox, or much of anything beyond the comparatively mundane product I work on, for that matter. If I did, it would be under NDA anyway. This post is my personal opinion.) With nearly a year in the books for the 360, I think there are still some question marks here. The Xbox team seems to be focused quite a bit on delivering what the customers are looking for, and Xbox Live Arcade is starting to pick up steam, with some excellent indie games (Mutant Storm Empire, Jeff Minter's Space Giraffe, Small Arms, Alien Hominid and Castle Crashers) and some highly desirable retro releases (Symphony of the Night) in the pipeline. They also have some titles in the works that should be big sellers (Gears of War, Halo 3 and to a lesser extent Forza 2) and the releases are starting to improve greatly in quality. I'd say if there's any one thing that the Xbox 360 has done that was a particularly brilliant move, it would be the addition of the gamerscore system. Although it's not a new concept (MSN Casual Games had it before the 360) it's surprising to see just how much stock people put into what is ultimately just a number. It has made people stick with games longer, play more different games for achievements, and has probably helped sell more games overall.

Microsoft also seems to be interested in moving the overall experience beyond the Xbox itself too, with the so-called Live Anywhere initiative. It's already known that Windows games in Vista are going to have gamerpoints associated with them, and will use at least some of XBox Live's features (and should even be able to use the same controllers.) I suspect the Zune will head in that direction (we already know that songs for the Zune will be purchased with the same MS Points used in the Live Marketplace.) It'll also be interesting to see what results from making the dev tools (XNA) far more accessible than any console ever has been before (I've messed with XNA Studio a bit, and anyone with a background in C# could eventually use them.) Even with Blue Dragon and other JRPGs in the pipeline,

I still suspect that the 360 isn't ever going to be a huge seller there, the vast majority of its major US/Euro releases are of little interest to Japanese gamers. There's also still some concern about the long term reliability of the hardware (my launch day box is still working just fine, but I've heard of plenty of hardware problems.) I also think that over time, there is going to be a fair bit of backlash over microtransactions and how they are used (first seen with the Oblivion horse armor fiasco, and most recently with Lumines Live, and EA's "pay to unlock content you can get from playing the game" system in Tiger Woods '07.) People are testing the waters of what does and doesn't work in microtransactions, and Microsoft has let themselves be the guinea pig by being first to market with a system that supports them. HD-DVD is still a question mark, but I think in the long run MS doesn't really care how the latest format war ends up. I don't plan to get one anytime soon, since I don't really watch movies in the first place.

Overall, I think the 360 will end up making a respectable showing, in the US and Europe, if not in Japan. They're making some missteps along the way, but in general they're at least moving forward.

Nintendo Wii: If you had asked me this question two years ago, I wouldn't have thought Nintendo would be of much relevance in this generation. The Gamecube had largely fallen below expectations, and the upcoming DS was widely believed to be a gimmicky fill-in to keep the PSP from completely eating Nintendo's lunch until they could get the next Gameboy out the door. Of course, a funny thing happened between then and now, and the DS not only became host to some compelling games that ended up selling several million copies each (Nintendogs, Brain Training, Mario Kart DS, New Super Mario Bros.) but the DS has been outselling the PSP by huge margins in Japan, and is beginning to do so elsewhere as well. If not for the runaway success of the DS, I think there wouldnt' be nearly as much interest in the Wii as there is now.

I don't think Nintendo would be able to keep up all that well if they tried the conventional "bigger, faster and more expensive" approach to Console design that MS and Sony are going for. They tried it for two generations and it got them pretty much nowhere. If this was only a question of the existing mainstream of gaming, it would seem that their strategy hinges quite a bit on people seeing the Wii and PS3's graphics, and realizing that ultimately those two aren't really much of a step up from the last generation. That question is pretty much academic though, since they really seem to be trying to move outside of the mainstream of gaming and attract people who might not otherwise buy consoles. I think if they can put together some quality games with mainstream appeal (e.g. Nintendogs or Brain Training type stuff) and nail the big-name franchise releases (Twilight Princess, Super Mario Galaxy, SSBB) they'll have a good base on which to have an ultimately successful platform. As long as they provide a good selection of titles for it, I think the Virtual Console can also be a good tool to get people in who might not otherwise buy a console (I'm surprised how much nostalgia there is out there for the NES. Back in the day, even my Mom could save the princess...)

The Wiimote still seems like an unknown quantity, and I don't think we're going to see it really used effectively for a while (Besides Super Mario 64 DS, does anyone even remember what else the DS launched with?) but eventually people are going to figure it out, and make some interesting new experiences with it. I still haven't seen anything really compelling in terms of new Wii releases yet, but I plan to get one as soon as possible, mostly for the Virtual Console (Nintendo platforms are not well represented in my gaming collection, I should be able to fill in some the holes there. Downloadable original games are also still a question mark for the Wii. We've seen the success of XBLA and know what Sony will launch the PS3 with for downloads, we still don't even know what VC titles the Wii will have at launch.

Overall, I think it's too soon to tell where the Wii will end up in the grand scheme of things. It could outsell both the 360 and PS3 by an order of magnitude, or it could sell half as many as either. I think their strategy is sound, and either way, I think they'll be able to make it out of this generation with a profit on the balance sheet, which in the end is the most important thing no matter where they end up. I also think that they're going to end up being the second console in a lot of houses that have either a 360 or PS3 in them, which seems to be exactly what they're looking for. The fact that they should launch with over 2 million boxes ready to go should give them a nice head start out of the gate as well.

(I will post my thoughts on the PS3 later. In short, I have no clue what to make of it, and I'm drawing a blank when I try to think of what to write about it. I'll probably have better luck with it at some point when it's not 2 in the morning.)

Initially pleased with my 360, it's starting to leave a sour taste.

Microtransactions.

You've got the Lumines fiasco, where they're selling something which is little more than a demo version, claiming it's the full game (at last count it'll take 5 download packs to get that). You can read up on that yourselves, suffice to say Microsoft and Q are certainly feeling the burn.. So, I turned back to the 1p game I'm playing right now - Godfather. Nice old single player game, no missing content, fine.

So, I'm driving along in a stolen car, and I see a green icon on the map. I stop, get out, talk to a shady looking person in the corner. He's a bodyguard - says a sentence then out popped a marketplace window, which immediately cut to an error window instead. Turns out some things are disabled, and will be available in November as paid content.

So I dig around, and it gets worse - turns out this also applies to a whole bunch of weapon upgrades, and they're charging because - wait for it - BECAUSE THEY GIVE PLAYERS AN ADVANTAGE. So, exactly like the paid cheats people have complained about in Tiger Woods, with the added insult that you can't unlock these at all, unless you pay.

Gaming seems to be turning shitty again.

Sounds like that Godfather game has offers you CAN refuse. All this hype about how Godfather has more content than other versions, only to have some of it offered for real cash. lame.

Next thing they'll make us pay for credits on shmups we buy .

For some reason I don't think that's a bad idea, as long as the only payments done are for the credits and not initial cost + credits

$20 for Mars Matrix >>>>>>>>>>>>>> $1000 for MM

quite, but I'm thinking about games that have "free play" on by default and not some sort of intelligent time/score-unlocked credit system (HI CAVE!)

And on microtransactions:
lol lumines
lol several-dozen-million-dollar budget games

I think the funniest thing they can/will do with this is to having to pay extra to see Halo 3's ending.

MMORPG's have done it and got away with it. I pity teh fools who pay to play a game they paid for.

360: 30~40% - It's already got some good titles like Ridge Racer 6, a good number of FPS (Quake 4 could've been better with a little more time in conversion). Mutant Storm Empire looks like something to watch for. Unfortunately, I'm not crazy about the idea of 1500 MS Points for Lumines without all the content. I hate to admit that the PS3 could spoil some of its momentum in Japan due to it not taking off like it should have. Thank goodness for Blue Dragon drumming up a little interest- it may not be too late.

PS3: 30~40% - For me, it needs Time Crisis 4.

Wii: 20%~30% - If it is in fact weaker than the other systems, that could hurt it. Still, this one is kind of an "alternative" system. Konami just might sell me one if they bring out Tsurugi.

Next Generation Forecast: No company is going to get a single cent from me via micro transactions. That's a vow.

Actually, I think anyone who is willing to pay money for game features that should really be free should have their head examined.

too bloody right!!

"Lik Sang's sales of Sony PSP Consoles illegal, according to London High Court Judge"

http://www.lik-sang.com/news.php?artc=3900&lsaid=219793

Got that, consumers? Globalization is for industry, not for you!

If I was going to buy any next gen console, it was going to be the PS3. No more.

Personal Prediction:

I'll still be amassing PS2 games on my HDD (third party or otherwise) till it ends up going the way of the Dreamcast, with games still being produced once every blue moon.

Oh yeah...and I have a PC.

My predicitions are that the PS3 will be the last console that Sony releases here in the States, and that the Wii will do extremely well. Not sure about Microsoft at this point, but Sony is doomed, IMO.

The difference is that the MMOGs that do this don't usually have any upfront cost, and the entirety of the cost to play is in these microtransactions. For example, Puzzle Pirates (one of the first successful microtransaction games) originally started with a standard subscription model (and still uses this on some servers, one of which I play on occasionally) then later tried a microtransaction system as an experiment, which turned out far more successfully than they anticipated. The way they do this is to use two in-game currencies: Pieces of Eight (PoE) and dubloons. The PoE are the standard in-game currency, and the only currency used on subscription servers. Doubloons are used to represent the purchased element of microtransaction servers. Most transactions or in-game actions require several doubloons (which are roughly equivalent to $0.25 each) to complete. They can also be traded to PoE (or vice versa) at an exchange rate based on supply and demand. In theory, this makes it possible for someone to play the game without ever paying, although difficult.

This has little to do with microtransactions as used on the game consoles though. I don't personally have a problem with the concept, But most of the items sold in microtransactions are far too expensive for what you get. I have yet to purchase anything on XBLM except for Live Arcade games.

I think MS XB360 will take max 25% share of the market. A) Because MS will come out with something better in 3 years time and B) PS3 will make the market grow, MS XB360 does nothing the older consoles didn't except HD.

I think more people in the world will have a PS3/Wii combo. Just because PS3 has more built in and will have a range of titles that far outweighs those on other systems.

I expect Wii to sell loads and be around long after PS3 and XB360, just simply because its not trying to be better technically.

With Nintendo's vision, there is absolutlely no reason to ever bring out a more powerful console.

Same thing was said about GC.

Continuing my post above...

PS3: Whether that was the original intention or not, the PS3 has turned into a "bet the farm" product for Sony. Outside the Playstation division they're dealing with some big blackeyes (most notably the fallout from the Rootkit fiasco, and the notebook battery recalls) and the Playstation division hasn't done much to help either, with some disastrous PR from Ken Kutaragi and Kaz Hirai, an 11th hour delay of the European launch (which although it has generated more bad PR, I think it's ultimately better for them in the long run to delay than to not ship adequate numbers at launch, which looks to be the case even in the areas they will launch in.) At least within the game community, the PS3 is a polarizing issue. It seems there's little room for fence sitting, either you believe it will completely obliterate the competition or it will bankrupt Sony (although the discussion is usually found more in terms of "OMG SONY SUX0RZ!!!1111" and "PS3 is gonna pwn the M$ suxbox 1.5 n00bz." Rare is the Internet discussion forum that doesn't descent into fanboy wars at the mere mention of any of the three next-gen consoles.)

As a gamer, there are two main problems I see with the PS3: First, much of the feature list of the console seems reactionary, rather than revolutionary. The SiXAXIS controller wouldn't have happened without the Wii, and little is known about the PS3's online capabilities other than the fact that it will be "like Xbox Live, only better." Among the first games announced for the PS3's download service was Blast factor, which looks suspiciously like an attempt to create their version of Geometry Wars. The other major problem I see with the PS3 is that with Sony's heavy-handed PR approach and hype, I get the distinct impression of a company trying to shove a product down the collective throats of the gaming community, rather than trying to sell the product on its merits. I think that part of this comes from the fact that one of the main goals of the console is to establish Blu-Ray as the HD movie format of choice, which has probably resulted in a fair bit of pressure from the higher-ups at Sony to push this full steam ahead, damn the torpedoes. All hype aside, the PS3 will be an incredible piece of hardware when it comes out, and may in fact be capable of remaining Sony's flagaship product throughout its lifespan. I believe that if Sony hired good, disciplined PR people (translation: Someone to tell Kaz and Ken when to just shut up already) and produced a solid console with a reasonable library of titles, they could already have the next generation title sewn up. Instead, they have a $600 behemoth with expensive features that are useless to 60% of their target audience currently (Blu-Ray) and which could ultimately become an albatross around the console's neck, half the gaming community convinced that they're off their collective rockers, and a lot of question marks in areas where there shouldn't be question marks. On the plus side, they still have the PS2 with reasonably strong sales, and in spite of the fact that the PSP is being trounced by the DS in terms of sales it is still selling reasonably well also.

As for me, I have yet to see any particularly compelling reason to get a PS3. None of the launch titles really interest me, and the $600 price tag is just too much to pay for a console. In the end, I predict that even though the PS3 is going to be off to a shaky start Sony should eventually be able to get things in order, even though they will find themselves playing catch-up for several years. In spite of this, they'll probably take the majority of the market share in Japan, but not by much over the Wii (the 360 will be far behind, I suspect there's a good possibility that the next Xbox may not even be sold in Japan,) but it will be a lot more even in the other territories. Sony better hope they can get the PS3 to be successful, because there's a good chance that if it fails, it's going to take the rest of the company with it.

I also suspect that there's no way the PS3 is ever going to sell as many units as the PS1 and PS2 did. Most of those were sold at the sub-$200 price range, and It's going to be quite a long time before the PS3 gets anywhere near that.

MS XB360 will sell the least numbers because MS work 3 or 4 year upgrade system. XB720 will be out by 2009.

Wii will sell loads this time around because its different.

Ps3 will ultimately win because its a one box solution for everything. The only thing missing is a keyboard and mouse and its a multimedia PC powerhouse near enough. It may seem highly priced at the begining but its definatley going to win peoples votes once the movies start rocking.

Sure. People are just dying to watch Broke Back Mountain on 1080p with 8.1 surround sound.

Sorry. It's late.

360 32%
PS3 49%
Wii 19%

Agree wholheartedly, although I think the PS3 will still do ok in Japan simply because of they foaming-at-the-mouth loyalty they have for sony. I wouldn't be surprised if the fans burned down every establishment in japan that sold 360's if sony told them to.

I am waiting till the wii has been out a few months to decide if it will take off or die in the water. If it ends up getting 3rd party support it might be my first console with the 360 being a second. I'll just buy the 360 if the wii ends up being too creative for american gamers.

One factor which may influence people is built-in internet connectivity-or lack thereof. The 360 costs $400, but with the $99 wireless adapter, it turns into a $500 dollar console-as much as the low-end PS3. Supposedly the Wii will have this adapter built-in, and if the PS3 does, and get's After Burner 360, that'll be the console that I get. I'm pretty impressed with the thing after seeing IGN's Sony Gamer's Day footage.

You don't necessarily need to buy the first party wireless adapter for the 360. If you have one available, a wired connection to the Ethernet port (which is increasingly common in entertainment centers these days) will work just fine. There are also third party wireless bridges which can use this Ethernet port as well. I use a wireless adapter on my 360, but I have to use wireless for everything in my apartment (including my desktop PC) due to the lack of wiring. The only place I can plug in my DSL router is in the kitchen.

Which leads me to point out: Since &%$#@! when does a *&%$#@! wireless adapter cost a &%$#@! Franklin?